Originally published on Substack. 

​Black Friday always tells us something about the economy. This year, it tells us everything.

The National Retail Federation expects a record 186.9 million shoppers, the most ever. If you only read headlines, you’d think Americans are overflowing with confidence. They aren’t.
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According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence fell to 88.7 in November—its lowest point since April and far below the 100–120 range that once signaled stability. Consumer sentiment dropped to near 60. And inflation-adjusted retail sales are flat since 2021.

When record crowds collide with falling confidence, it doesn’t signal prosperity. It signals pressure. Americans aren’t shopping because they feel good. They’re shopping because everything costs more. And the cause of that isn’t mysterious.

It’s federal overspending, inflation, tariffs, and bad policy—not consumer behavior.

Prices Didn’t Rise on Their Own—Policy Made Them Rise

Talk to shoppers and read the reporting, and the pattern is crystal clear.

Reuters highlights shoppers cutting budgets dramatically—one New Yorker dropping her holiday spending from $500 → $300, and a family in Idaho shrinking their budget from $2,000 → $750 due to rising healthcare premiums and higher everyday prices.

Retailers have pulled back on deals because their own costs—driven by tariffs and inflation—keep climbing.
Small appliances that once cost $5 after rebates now cost two to four times more, with fewer promotions and no rebates.

MarketWatch reports that Americans feel pressured to “get the best deals” because their dollars no longer stretch the way they used to. Even off-price retailers are seeing surging demand—not because consumers are thriving, but because they’re searching for value in a high-price world.

Then The Economist drives it home:

Americans are “miserable but still spending.”

That’s not irrational. It’s survival.

Americans Aren’t the Problem—Washington Is

Families don’t always budget perfectly. That’s life. But at least they spend their own money and face their own consequences.

Washington does neither.

The federal government has spent with abandon, avoided accountability by borrowing trillions, and fueled the affordability crisis hurting every household today.

Here are the facts from the ATR Sustainable Budget Project:

• Federal spending is up more than 50% in a decade.
• From 2020–2024, spending grew 10.9% per year—nearly triple the sustainable rate of 3.6%.
• Had Congress followed a responsible population-plus-inflation limit, Washington would have spent $2.2 trillion less this year.
• The U.S. would have $1.8 trillion less debt, instead of adding $14.3 trillion in a decade.

This isn’t complicated. It’s arithmetic. Inflation didn’t happen because of “greed.” Prices didn’t jump because Americans suddenly forgot how to shop.

The affordability crisis is the direct result of overspending and policy mistakes—tariffs that raised consumer prices, regulations that slowed investment, and deficits that stoked inflation.

Families are trying to manage the fallout. Washington is pretending it didn’t cause it.

Bad Policy Creates Bad Incentives

For years, federal policy encouraged households to overspend too:

• Inflation punished saving
• Easy money rewarded borrowing
• “Stimulus” checks trained people to spend rather than invest
• Tariffs raised the price of essentials
• Regulatory uncertainty weakened hiring and wage growth

Households are reacting rationally to bad incentives created by Washington—not some mythical “irrational consumer.” People feel they must “buy now before prices rise further” because, for years, they did rise further.
That isn’t a consumer problem. It’s a policy problem.

Savings and Stability: The Real Engines of Prosperity

Healthy economies depend on savings—the fuel behind entrepreneurship, investment, and long-term growth. But savings erode under inflation. And record federal deficits crowd out private investment.

Yes, households still have more cash than in 2019, but Bank of America finds they’re reluctant to draw it down—because uncertainty is replacing confidence. That uncertainty originates in Washington, not at kitchen tables.

The Fix Is Simple: Spend Less, Grow More, Restore Confidence

America doesn’t need new taxes, new bureaucracies, or performative “populism.” We need one rule: Limit federal spending growth to less than population growth plus inflation.

That’s the Sustainable Budget model—simple, proven, pro-growth, and aligned with the real-world constraints families face every day.

This rule:

• restrains overspending
• cools inflation
• stabilizes debt
• strengthens savings
• boosts investment
• rebuilds consumer confidence

States like Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Texas, and Tennessee already use versions of this framework. Washington can too—if it’s willing to choose discipline over denial.

My Take: Americans Are Doing Their Part. Washington Must Do Its Job.

Black Friday crowds aren’t a sign of a thriving economy. They’re a sign of Americans navigating abnormal economic conditions with grit and creativity—while Washington keeps making things harder.

Families are stretching dollars. Searching for value. Adjusting to higher prices. Washington is doing none of that.
It’s time for the federal government to relearn the lesson every family already knows: You cannot spend money you do not have without consequences.

The path forward is clear:

• Spend less
• Borrow less
• Inflate less
• Save more
• Grow more
• Trust free people, not central planners

That’s how we restore affordability, rebuild confidence, and let people prosper.

Originally published on Substack. 

​The federal government finally reopened — on my 44th birthday (Nov. 12), no less — after the longest government shutdown in American history.

Forty-three days of drama, political brinkmanship, and leadership failures from both parties ended with a massive spending deal that…cut no spending, kept Biden’s bloated post-COVID spending levels, but preserved the provisions in the so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill”: expanded Obamacare subsidies that were supposed to expire years ago when Biden ended the emergency declaration but now represent $1.5 trillion in new spending over a decade.

In other words: Congress ended the shutdown by agreeing to spend more with continued trillions of dollars in deficits…to avoid talking about spending. But somehow, in the middle of all this dysfunction, they did find one thing they could agree on: A nationwide ban on hemp-derived THC products starting a year from now.

Yes — the government that can’t pass a real budget and running $2 trillion deficits for a $38 trillion national debt that’s 120% of GDP suddenly found laser-like focus when it came to shutting down an entire estimated $28 billion industry, destroying more than 300,000 jobs, and throwing thousands of small businesses under the regulatory bus.

As I’ve been saying for years: When politicians panic, liberty is the first casualty.

The Ban: A Disaster Wrapped Inside a Spending Bill

Tucked into the agriculture portion of the spending package was a provision banning any hemp-derived consumer product containing more than 0.4 mg of THC per container — far below what many products contains.

​For context:

• A typical edible gummy has 2.5 to 10 mg of THC.
• The 2018 Farm Bill allowed hemp with <0.3% THC by dry weight, not per container.
• This new threshold wipes out 95% of the legal hemp market.

It is, as industry leaders put it, “a complete ban dressed up as a safety rule.”
The ban takes effect one year from passage — unless Congress reverses course. That means the clock is already ticking. And as always, when government swings a hammer, real people get crushed:

• Texas, Kentucky, and Utah — states with major hemp industries — stand to lose thousands of farmers, manufacturers, and retailers.
• Consumers who use hemp products for sleep, chronic pain, PTSD, or simple relaxation lose access to legal, regulated options.
• And prohibition predictably shifts demand to black markets, where quality control is nonexistent and bad actors like drug dealers and cartels thrive.

If this sounds familiar, it should. We’ve run this experiment before — during alcohol prohibition, in the war on drugs, and every time politicians confuse public health with political control.
The result?
More crime. More cartels. More Al Capones. And less safety, less transparency, and less personal responsibility.
Thank You, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul — One Who Tried
Let’s be clear: not every Republican supported this nonsense. US Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) offered an amendment to strike the hemp ban outright. It was the right move — grounded in constitutional principles, federalism, and basic economic sanity. He deserves credit for standing firm for small businesses, property rights, and individual liberty. But most of the Senate ignored him and voted for prohibition anyway — many of whom preach “limited government” while voting like central planners.
Ask yourself: Are lawmakers protecting public safety…or protecting alcohol lobbyists who don’t want competition Because this looks less like moral conviction and more like the oldest story in politics: Baptists and Bootleggers working together.
Economics 101: There’s No Market Failure Here
For government to intervene in a market, there must be a clear, demonstrable market failure — something the private sector cannot solve. That simply doesn’t apply here. There is no imbalance of information: consumers know what a THC gummy is. There is no externality beyond personal choices: adults consume responsibly or not, like alcohol, caffeine, or Tylenol.
There is no monopoly requiring intervention: the hemp market is one of the most competitive sectors in America. What we have instead is a classic case of politicians treating adults like children and industries like political bargaining chips.
Prohibition is not regulation. Prohibition is not safety. Prohibition is not limited government. Prohibition is force — and force fails every time.
The Real Path Forward: Freedom, Federalism, and Civil Society
If Congress wants to keep communities safe and entrepreneurs accountable, here’s the path:
1. Legalize and Decriminalize, Don’t Criminalize and Ban
Prohibition empowers criminals, cartels, and fentanyl. Legal markets empower consumers, safety, transparency, and competition.
2. State-Level Regulation, not Bans, Work Better
Hemp is overwhelmingly a local and intrastate industry — making it a textbook case for federalism. Let states set testing standards, retail rules, and age limitations, not bans like Texas tried this year and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott vetoed and issued an executive order for 21+ purchases and not near sensitive locations like schools (should be legislation instead of EO as executives are getting too much power these days among populists).



3. Civil Society > Federal Bureaucracy
Addiction and misuse require family support, churches, nonprofits, mental-health expertise, and community care — not another round of federal raids or one-size-fits-all bans.
4. Respect Adults, Respect Markets
Consumers deserve choice. Entrepreneurs deserve opportunity. Liberty requires both.
Conclusion: If Congress Won’t Protect Liberty, We Must
This entire episode — the shutdown, the spending bill, the hemp ban — reveals a simple truth: Washington will spend endlessly, regulate recklessly, and ban freely unless the American people push back.
But there is good news: Liberty is resilient. Entrepreneurs are resilient. And Americans overwhelmingly prefer freedom over prohibition.
The hemp ban doesn’t take effect for one full year. That means now is the time — for advocacy, legislation, litigation, and education. And as someone who’s spent his career fighting for pro-growth, pro-freedom, pro-prosperity policy, I can tell you:

This fight is winnable. Let’s get to work.

​— Vance Ginn, Ph.D.

Originally published on Substack. 

​Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) has released his Six Steps to Overhaul the Property Tax System, promising relief from soaring appraisals and runaway local tax hikes. Here’s the plan posted on X.

But let’s be clear: while Abbott’s plan is progress, it’s not the destination. Texans deserve full ownership, not perpetual relief. If leaders don’t show courage now, Texas risks becoming the next California—spending too much, taxing too much, and delivering too little.

The right path is simple but not easy: spend less, tax less, and let Texans prosper.

The Positives: Where Abbott’s Plan Gets It Right

Here are the biggest strengths of his plan:

1. Local Spending Limits. Limiting local government spending to population growth plus inflation (or 3.5%, whichever is lower) would impose much-needed discipline. This mirrors the Sustainable Budget model that spending restraint is the only sustainable form of tax relief.
   
2. Two-Thirds Voter Approval for Property Tax Increases. Giving taxpayers the power to veto big hikes would protect wallets and restore accountability. It’s a guardrail against local governments that treat taxpayers as endless tax revenue sources.
   
3. Appraisal Predictability. Requiring appraisals only once every five years could reduce red tape and uncertainty for homeowners and businesses.
   
4. Lower Appraisal Caps and Broader Coverage. Reducing the homestead appraisal cap from 10% to 3% and extending it to all property types could slow some growth in tax bills.
   
5. Empowering Voters to Roll Back Taxes. Allowing 15% of local voters to trigger rollback elections gives Texans direct power to check government excess.
   
6. Eliminating School Property Taxes for Homeowners. The boldest part—ending school district property taxes through a constitutional amendment—could mark the beginning of true property ownership if done responsibly.

Together, these reforms acknowledge a truth fiscal conservatives have preached for decades: property taxes are too high because government spends too much.

The Concerns: Caution, Complexity, and the Need for Courage

Still, Gov. Abbott’s proposal doesn’t go far enough. It tinkers with symptoms instead of curing the disease.

• Caps don’t cut spending. Local officials will simply find new ways to spend around them. Without stronger constitutional limits and voter-approved enforcement at the state and local levels, these caps risk becoming ceilings to hit, not boundaries to respect.
  
• Appraisal limits distort markets. Capping appraisals shifts the burden onto others when local governments jack up tax rates to spend more. Capping appraisals also incentivizes people to not sell their property thereby reducing available supply in the market resulting in higher values for new property purchases and making it more difficult for first-time buyers, households with lower income, and others.
  
• “Relief” without reform fades fast. Texans have seen this before—record “relief” packages wiped out by higher appraisals and local rate hikes. Relief without restraint is a sugar high; reform must be permanent.
  
• The endgame is missing. Abbott ran on eliminating property taxes outright in 2022, but this new plan sidesteps that vision.

If Texas settles for tinkering, states like Florida and Tennessee—both leaner and bolder—will leave us behind.
To truly secure prosperity, Texas needs more than a six-step patch. It needs a three-step plan for elimination.

The Three-Step Plan to End Property Taxes

Step 1: A Stronger Constitutional Spending Limit.

Texas currently has five state spending limits—but most are riddled with loopholes. We need one simple, enforceable rule: All state and local government spending must grow slower than population growth plus inflation. Exceeding that limit should require at least a two-thirds supermajority vote. Fiscal responsibility isn’t partisan; it’s arithmetic.

Step 2: Use Surpluses to Buy Down Property Taxes.

Every surplus dollar taken from taxpayers should go toward permanent tax rate compression—not new programs. This surplus buydown model already works at the state level, but has been watered down with bad homestead exemption hikes and excessive spending, and could eliminate school district property taxes within a decade if lawmakers hold the line on spending.

Step 3: Replace Property Taxes with a Budget-Neutral Sales Taxes.

This could be matched to accomplish this quickly for school district M&O taxes, replaced with a broader-based 9% state-local sales tax rate (compared with the 8.25% rate today) that captures final consumption—not production.

Local governments should follow by taking the increased sales tax revenue from the base expansion to reduce their property tax rates then have some combination of a local surplus buydown or other paths to eliminate their property taxes (not the state).

This is the path to eliminating all property taxes and real ownership, not another round of “temporary relief.”

The Economic and Moral Case for Elimination
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Property taxes are fundamentally unjust. They punish investment, discourage homeownership, and treat property not as something you own but something you lease from the state. If you can lose your home for failing to pay, you don’t own it—you’re renting it.

Property taxes also hit the poor hardest. Renters pay through higher rents, workers through lower wages, and entrepreneurs through lost capital. These taxes distort housing markets, drive up costs, and slow growth. More importantly, they violate a moral truth: once you’ve paid for your property, you shouldn’t have to rent it every year.

The solution isn’t more carveouts, exemptions, or political “caps.” It’s sustainable budgeting and a modern, consumption-based tax system designed for the 21st century.

The Moment for Boldness

Governor Abbott’s plan moves the debate in the right direction—but Texas must go further. “Relief” isn’t enough. Texans want ownership. They want simplicity, transparency, and a government that spends less so they can save, invest, and build more. If the governor pushes forward boldly—pairing sustainable budgeting with surplus buydowns and a budget-neutral tax swap (not revenue neutral to emphasize less spending)—Texas could become the model for every other state.

If he stops short, our tax burden will keep creeping upward, our debt will keep rising, and our competitiveness will keep slipping. Texas will keep looking a little more like California and a lot less like the freedom-focused Texas we love.

Spending less must be the rallying cry for every fiscal conservative, policymaker, and taxpayer who wants Texas to lead again. Spend Less, Prosper More isn’t just a motto—it’s the only way to preserve ownership and opportunity for generations to come.
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For more on how Texas and other states can end property taxes and restore true ownership, visit my writings.

Originally published on Substack. 

​The Tax Foundation’s recently released 2026 State Tax Competitiveness Index ranks Louisiana 31st in the nation, a middling position that reflects the state’s economic climate. While Louisiana has taken modest steps to simplify its tax code, government spending continues to grow faster than the economy—and that’s what keeps the state stuck in neutral.
Across the country, the story is becoming clear. States that maintain a limited and predictable government are the ones that attract new residents, jobs, and businesses. Those that allow spending to balloon are watching people and investment leave.

The Real Problem: Spending, Not Just Taxes

Louisiana’s tax structure looks competitive in some areas, but high and complex spending patterns undermine those gains. The state ranks 10th in corporate taxes and 15th in individual income taxes after its 2024 reforms. However, it ranks 50th—dead last—in sales-tax simplicity due to its fragmented local collection system. Property taxes are moderate at 22nd, but they continue to climb as local budgets expand.

The real obstacle is not insufficient revenue; it’s a lack of fiscal restraint. When state spending grows faster than population growth plus inflation, taxpayers lose purchasing power, and the private economy—the engine of prosperity—shrinks. Every dollar the government spends must first be taken from someone who earned it. The longer this pattern persists, the more challenging it becomes for families and businesses to plan, invest, and thrive.

Learning from Our Neighbor: What Mississippi Is Doing Right
​
Louisiana’s neighbor, Mississippi, is taking a disciplined and forward-looking approach. Under the Build Up Mississippi Act, enacted in 2022, the state is phasing out its individual income tax through a series of scheduled rate reductions. The top rate will fall to 3 percent by 2030—a goal Louisiana has already achieved—but then further cuts will occur automatically if revenues and reserves meet defined benchmarks. Louisiana has no such automatic trigger or plan to achieve further reductions. In fact, earlier this year, state senators balked at a proposal to lower the rate to 2.75%. Analyses from the Mississippi Policy Center and ALEC indicate that Mississippi’s  forward-looking plan fosters certainty for employers and workers who can anticipate the direction of policy.

That clarity matters. Expectations shape behavior. When people know tax burdens will decline, they invest more, relocate more confidently, and hire more aggressively. It’s not simply about the current rate; it’s about the direction of policy. Mississippi is communicating that its government intends to grow less so that its people can grow more.

What Louisiana Should Do Next

If Louisiana wants to rise in competitiveness and attract long-term investment, it needs two straightforward reforms:

1. Cap government growth. Adopt a rule that limits the state’s annual budget growth to less than the combined rate of population and inflation. This approach keeps the government aligned with taxpayers’ ability to pay, allowing surpluses to build naturally without the need for higher taxes.
2. Establish a clear path to lower income tax rates. Once spending is under control, dedicate future surpluses to permanent income tax rate reductions. Louisiana’s current top individual income tax rate is lower than Mississippi’s, yet Mississippi’s trajectory is clearer. Direction and discipline are what create growth, not merely rate differences on paper.

The Bigger Lesson

Economic freedom is not just an accounting exercise—it’s a moral principle. Prosperity occurs when individuals, not bureaucracies, determine how to allocate their earnings. States that respect that truth, such as Mississippi, Texas, Florida, and Tennessee, are outperforming those that treat government as the primary driver of opportunity.
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Louisiana can join that group, but only if it confronts its spending habits and sends a credible signal that tax burdens will continue to fall. Fiscal restraint and predictable policy are the cornerstones of growth. The path to prosperity is simple: spend less, tax less, and trust people to make their own choices. That’s how Louisiana—and every state—can let people prosper.