These are my prepared remarks for a keynote speech on April 24, 2025 at the Pennsylvania Aggregates and Concrete Association ( PACA) meetings in State College, PA. 

Thank you for having me. It’s a privilege to be with you here in State College, Pennsylvania—home to hard hats, strong backs, big trucks, and folks who actually know how to get things built. Now, I’m just an economist, which means I can explain tomorrow why what I predicted yesterday didn’t happen today—but at least I brought charts and conviction!

In all seriousness, I want to acknowledge the outstanding work of the Pennsylvania Aggregates and Concrete Association (PACA). You're not just producers of crushed stone, ready-mix concrete, sand and gravel, and cement. You are builders of roads, homes, and businesses—the very foundation of freedom and prosperity. You represent over 200 companies across this state, many of which are family-owned, multi-generational businesses rooted in local communities. You're proof that economic growth and environmental stewardship are not mutually exclusive.

Aggregates are among the most abundant resources on earth, essential to agriculture, construction, and transportation. Congress has recognized them as critical to our national security and economic stability. In Pennsylvania, you make that mission real. This state ranks second nationally in crushed stone production, behind only Texas, my home state. In 2019, you helped produce part of America’s 1.53 billion tons of crushed stone. PennDOT is your largest customer. That speaks volumes about the strategic importance of your industry.

You keep the country moving—literally. And yet, you face challenges: rising input costs, outdated regulations, labor shortages, and tariffs that penalize your progress. That’s why we’re here today. Because this moment isn’t just about reacting—it’s about resetting. It’s about laying a new foundation for freedom, competitiveness, and certainty.

Now, if you’re feeling frustrated or confused by what’s happening in the economy, you’re not alone. That feeling is real. I’ve felt it too. Let me ask you a question: how many of you here today are perfect? Anyone? Well, I certainly wasn’t in my late teens and early 20s. Back then, I wasn’t dreaming of federal budgets—I was dreaming of being a rock star.

I played drums in a Houston-based band called Sindrome. We were doing pretty well, gigging around town, chasing the dream. I was living in the moment, caught up in the lifestyle, and not thinking much about tomorrow. But life has a way of waking you up. I grew up in a single-mom household in South Houston, Texas. My mom dropped out of high school in the 10th grade and worked multiple jobs. She gave everything so that my sister and I had a chance.

As a teenager, I didn’t dream of economic policy. I wanted to be a rock drummer. Then came May 25, 2002. I was riding shotgun, racing another car at 120 miles per hour, when we clipped another vehicle. We rolled six times and skidded upside down for 40 yards. I was life-flighted to Hermann Hospital. I walked out that night, miraculously. That crash didn’t end my life—it gave it direction. It was the moment I knew I needed a new foundation. My life couldn’t be built on adrenaline and chance. It had to be built on something real. I realized I was building my life on sand. I needed a foundation.
I found that foundation in faith, family, and freedom. I attended college at Texas Tech University, where I earned my Ph.D. in economics, taught classes there and Sam Houston State University, led policy initiatives in Texas at the Texas Public Policy Foundation for about a decade, and then served as the Chief Economist in the the first Trump White House’s Office of Management and Budget. I helped write a budget that saved $4.6 trillion. But when lockdowns came, and liberty gave way to fear and control, I knew I had to step away and speak out.

So while today’s economic climate may feel chaotic, let me be clear: certainty starts with you. It begins in your home, your business, your principles—and we need that now more than ever.

Section I: The Economic Storm—2025 Realities
The U.S. economy in 2025 stands at a crossroads. While March brought a temporary boost in new single-family home sales, spurred by a short-lived drop in mortgage rates, the underlying fundamentals remain shaky. Inflation has persisted above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Interest rates remain high. Borrowing costs continue to stifle investment, especially in construction and manufacturing.

Milton Friedman once said, “Inflation is taxation without legislation.” And right now, American families and businesses are paying the price.

The Biden administration left behind an economy propped up by artificial stimulus, loose monetary policy, and runaway federal spending. It wasn’t sustainable. And now, with a new administration attempting to course-correct, businesses are waiting. Markets are pausing. Families are hesitant.

It’s not just uncertainty—it’s compounded fragility. And when uncertainty collides with fragility, the result is paralysis. Economic momentum slows. Investment dries up. Innovation gets shelved. We’ve seen this before. The 1970s were marked by similar policy missteps: high taxes, excessive regulation, and central bank mistakes. That era gave us stagflation—high inflation, low growth, and rising unemployment. We can’t afford to repeat that mistake. We must instead chart a course that embraces economic freedom, spending restraint, and policy predictability.

Section II: Trump’s First 100 Days—Opportunities and Unknowns
The return of the Trump administration offers both hope and uncertainty.

There’s a clear agenda for tax reform, deregulation, and infrastructure revitalization. However, there are also signs of policy whiplash, particularly in the areas of trade and tariffs. The Trump tax cuts, known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, helped drive growth in the past. But unless extended, much of those tax cuts will expire in 2025.

The state should permanently lower marginal tax rates, maintain full expensing, and index capital gains to inflation. Anything less risks undoing the progress made over the last decade. At the same time, tariffs are once again taking center stage. Whether it’s steel, aluminum, or aggregates, these are taxes on progress. Tariffs don’t punish foreign companies—they punish American builders.

Let’s be clear: you can’t build a strong economy while taxing the materials that make it.

Section III: The Construction Economy—Aggregates, Concrete, and Opportunity
Let’s talk about what you know best: building. The construction sector employs over 8.3 million Americans and generates $2.1 trillion in annual economic activity. Every $1 billion in new construction supports more than 6,000 jobs. Aggregates are the backbone of every road, every foundation, and every bridge. Concrete is the world’s most used construction material—for good reason. It’s durable, sustainable, and indispensable. In Pennsylvania, this industry matters. The state ranks second in the country in crushed stone production. In 2024, it produced nearly 9.6 million tons of sand and gravel, as well as over 8.7 million cubic yards of ready-mix concrete.

However, rising input costs, labor shortages, and tariffs are placing a significant strain on your operations. And when regulations delay projects, it's not just frustrating—it’s expensive. These burdens increase your bids, squeeze your margins, and delay the jobs your workers are ready to do. Imagine if we reversed that. Streamlined permitting. Lower tariffs. Smarter tax policy. Predictable regulatory enforcement. That’s the kind of certainty this industry needs—and it’s the kind of certainty that starts from the bottom up.

Section IV: Pennsylvania’s Fiscal and Economic Reality
Pennsylvania has enormous potential, but its fiscal policies are holding it back. From 2015 to 2024, the state spent and taxed $76.1 billion more than it should have, had it followed population growth plus inflation. In all funds, that number rises to $174.8 billion. That’s over $10,000 per person.

Here’s what that overreach looks like:

• Income tax rate: 3.07% (39th nationally)
• Corporate tax rate: 7.99% (42nd)
• Property taxes: 1.35% of housing value (12th highest)
• State-local tax burden: 10.6% (28th)

And what’s the result?

• Economic performance rank: 44th
• Regulatory policy rank: 37th
• Labor force participation rank: 33rd
• Poverty rate rank: 30th

Compare this with Texas, where I live, not because it’s perfect, but because it shows a different path. Texas has no personal income tax, a constitutional spending limit, and strong in-migration and business formation. Economic activity is one of the highest in the country. Pennsylvania has the resources, the workforce, and the will. But it needs the right policies—ones that trust people, not bureaucracies.

Section V: The Classical Liberal Framework
I don’t put my faith in politicians, whether they wear red or blue. I put my faith in Jesus Christ first, then free people. Classical liberalism isn’t about being moderate—it’s about being principled. It’s about decentralizing power, protecting property rights, and ensuring opportunity through voluntary exchange, not mandates and programs. It’s the philosophy of Adam Smith, of Hayek, of Friedman. It’s the philosophy that built the most prosperous societies in history—and the one we must recommit to today.

Section VI: Closing—Certainty Starts With You
So what now?

We don’t wait for Washington. We don’t wait for Harrisburg. Certainty starts with you. With how you lead your business, your employees, and your community. We choose freedom over fear. Discipline over deficits. Opportunity over dependency. Let’s reject protectionism. Let’s end cronyism. Let’s empower individuals. Let’s choose Friedman over favors. Hayek over hubris. Jefferson over justifications.

Let’s go build—not just roads and bridges—but a country where we truly let people prosper.

Thank you. Let’s get to work.​

Originally published as an article on X. 

You don’t need to be a Wall Street analyst to know something’s off. Now we’re getting confirmation in the numbers: the U.S. economy is slipping. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast projects a -2.8% contraction for the first quarter of 2025—a warning sign blinking in red. That’s not just an abstract data point; it’s a real-world signal that businesses are pausing investment, job growth is stalling, and families are feeling the strain.

This sharp economic slide didn’t happen in a vacuum. It followed President Trump’s announcement of sweeping new tariffs, part of an aggressive trade agenda that’s injected a new layer of uncertainty into an already fragile economy. Since early March, when trade rhetoric ramped up, the GDPNow forecast has remained in the red. Adding fuel to the dismal situation, the S&P 500 is down nearly 17% from its recent high, with about $11 trillion in stock market losses since Trump's inauguration. For working Americans, that translates to delayed pay raises, fewer job opportunities, and higher costs for nearly everything. We’re living with the consequences now, and unless we change course, it will get worse.

Now, instead of correcting course with stable, pro-growth policies, President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs—10% minimum tax on all imports, including 54% on Chinese goods and 20% on European products—are the latest attempt to reshape trade policy by brute force. But rather than strengthening our economy, this strategy injects more uncertainty, stokes inflation, and raises prices on everyday goods. Families already stretched by high grocery bills and energy costs are now seeing those same dollars buy even less. If you’re a parent trying to save for your child’s education or a retiree budgeting carefully, these policies make your life harder.

To truly put America first, we must lower spending, make the Trump tax cuts permanent, reduce regulations, and engage our allies in free trade that benefits everyone.

After Trump announced a much more complicated "reciprocal tariff" strategy, markets immediately sounded the alarm. Stocks fell sharply, oil prices dropped, and investors scrambled for safety. Prices for essentials—from electronics to groceries—are expected to surge. One estimate suggests a future iPhone could cost $2,300. Tariffs aren’t a clever negotiating tactic—they’re taxes on Americans. They hit hardest at the gas pump and checkout counter, especially for low-income households living paycheck to paycheck.

For many, this policy may seem like economic patriotism—fixing trade deficits and restoring American jobs. But let’s be clear: this isn’t economic strategy; it’s economic theater. As Milton Friedman said, “We call a tariff a protective measure. It does protect; it protects the consumer very well against one thing. It protects the consumer against low prices.”

Trade isn’t a weapon. It’s a bridge that connects people to more opportunity, innovation, and peace. When we trade freely, costs fall, choices expand, and economies grow. History shows that nations that trade are less likely to fight. A tariff war, by contrast, makes us poorer and isolates us from global partnerships that build stability.

Instead of projecting strength, these tariffs project fear—fear that American businesses can’t compete unless Washington rigs the game. That fear leads to retaliation, not respect. Remember the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930? It helped trigger a global trade war and started and exacerbated the Great Depression. We could be heading down a similar road, and this time, families already battling inflation may not have the margin to endure it.

Many believe trade “hollowed out” the Rust Belt. But that story misses the real culprits: automation and innovation, along with federal, state, and local policies and strong labor unions that made it hard to do business. High taxes, strict labor mandates, and bloated bureaucracies drove jobs away—not just overseas, but to states like Texas and Florida with better policies. In fact, manufacturing output has hit record highs in recent decades; the jobs moved—not because of trade, but because of bad policies that made staying put too expensive.

If we want to bring jobs back or offer better ones, we must make America more competitive—not more combative. That starts with making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent. These tax cuts boosted wages, investment, and growth. Letting them expire would hurt workers and businesses. We must also slash reckless spending. Our national debt is over $36 trillion and growing. Reducing federal spending helps shrink trade deficits, too, by boosting national savings and reducing reliance on foreign capital. Fiscal discipline at home leads to strength abroad.

We also need to cut red tape. Entrepreneurs are burdened by nearly $2 trillion in regulatory costs each year. Cutting that burden means more startups, more jobs, and more innovation. It means unleashing the energy and ambition of the American people.

Instead of punishing Americans and our allies with tariffs, we should lead them in building a more open global economy. Trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership would have enhanced America’s influence in Asia and set higher standards for international commerce. By walking away, we ceded ground to China. It’s time to reverse course. More trade agreements—built on reducing trade barriers—can reinforce our leadership and lift incomes at home and abroad.

To Trump supporters who want more prosperity and fair trade: you’re right to want a better deal for America. But the way to get there is not by taxing ourselves or stoking uncertainty. It’s by bringing our house in order—lowering barriers, not raising them. Let’s compete by unleashing the best of what America offers—not by closing our doors.

Americans deserve policies that unite prosperity with liberty. Tariffs concentrate power in the hands of politicians who pick winners and losers. That’s not capitalism—it’s economic control. True prosperity comes when people are free to trade, innovate, and grow. That’s what makes America exceptional.
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Let’s not build walls around our economy. Let’s build bridges that connect us to the world and a more prosperous future for all. Tariffs won’t make America great again. But economic freedom will.

​Don’t miss my interview on NTD News!

Originally published at NBC News with my quote below.

​President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the nation’s trade deficit, which the Commerce Department reported Wednesday reached a new record high. 
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But the same Commerce report showed the value of American exports had also hit a new record, indicating there’s still strong demand for U.S. goods and services abroad.

A trade deficit simply means a country is importing more than it is exporting. As the Congressional Research Service reported in 2018, Trump’s fixation on reversing the deficit “contrasts with the views of most economists.”
Maintaining a deficit usually says little about the state of a country’s economy. The U.S. trade deficit reflects strong domestic growth and consumption, especially relative to the weaker economic performance seen in many parts of the world, including most other Western developed countries. 

“Trade helps us to be better off,” said Vance Ginn, an economist and adviser in Trump’s first term.  Whether it is sourcing goods that the U.S. no longer produces or which can be produced more cheaply elsewhere, large American import levels reflect strong demand from consumers for stuff — and the U.S. economy as a whole generally benefits from this arrangement, Ginn said.

Countries with large trade surpluses, such as China, Russia and Saudi Arabia, tend to be heavy exporters of natural resources with relatively lower rates of domestic consumption. 
Trump has indicated he may prefer the U.S. to more closely resemble this group of nations. In his executive order last week laying out his new administration’s trade priorities, “investigating the causes of our country’s large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods” was the first item listed. 

Asked what Canada and Mexico needed to do to avoid sweeping new 25% tariffs, Trump said Sunday, “They have to balance out their trade, number one. We have deficits with almost every country — not every country, but almost — and we’re going to change it.”

Because Americans tend to buy more and save less than those ib other countries, a deficit persists. Economists are nearly unanimous that Trump’s call for tariffs to reverse the deficit would raise costs for U.S. consumers — and the president himself recently acknowledged their imposition would likely lead to “pain” for some time.  
  
Trump often cites William McKinley, a former U.S. president who, as a congressman, helped implement massive trade duties, as his lodestar for how he believes the U.S. economy should be run. McKinley was indeed successful in raising large sums of money for the U.S. government several decades before the first national income tax was implemented. 

However, by the time McKinley was sworn in as president in 1897, the country’s transition from an agrarian to an industrialized economy had accelerated, and he ultimately abandoned the use of tariffs in favor of reciprocal trade agreements. 

There may have been a point in the 1980s and 1990s when America’s widening trade deficit began to cause problems again. In testimony before the U.S. Senate in 1998, Robert Scott, an economist with the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, said trade imbalances had likely contributed to 2 million manufacturing job losses between 1979 and 1994, with hundreds of thousands resulting from the 1992 North American Free Trade Agreement alone — a pact Trump repeatedly criticized before replacing it with the United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement in 2018. His latest volley of tariffs would contravene that very deal, which is up for review in the middle of next year.

Along with the lost jobs was the effect on wages, Scott said. Since 1979, Americans’ inflation-adjusted earnings have risen only by 12%, even as the size of the overall U.S. economy has grown exponentially during the same period. Wealth inequality, too, accelerated during this time.

The Wall Street Journal’s right-leaning editorial board has noted the “contradictions” of Trump’s economic policies. 
“Mr. Trump likes tariffs and wants more of them, but he also wants a weaker dollar to promote U.S. exports, and the two desires are in conflict,” it said this week. 

Most economists, left and right, believe that at this point, it would be extremely difficult to bring back a meaningful number of manufacturing roles — and that those that still exist currently benefit from lower trade barriers and, in some cases, recent federal programs designed to prop up key industries like semiconductor manufacturing. 

“It would be better if Mr. Trump and his crew dropped the strong dollar-weak dollar chatter and focused on a stable dollar,” the Journal’s editorial board wrote. “That’s what inflation-weary Americans elected the President to do.”