Today, I cover:
1) National: Shocking findings from the Fraser Institute's newest "Economic Freedom of the World Report," especially as it relates to the U.S. and Hong Kong, the Fed not raising interest rates, and the average 30-year mortgage rate reaching its highest since Nov. 2000;
2) States: My new co-authored report published by the Pelican Institute highlighting how Louisiana could become "the next big thing” with tax reform and responsible budgeting, and why Colorado's Taxpayer's Bill of Rights (TABOR) is under attack; and
3) Other: My recent articles on the DOJ's antitrust lawsuit against Google and Constitution Day.

You can watch this TWE episode and others along with my Let People Prosper Show on YouTube or listen to it on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Google Podcast, or Anchor. Please share, subscribe, like, and leave a 5-star rating!
​
For show notes, thoughtful insights, media interviews, speeches, blog posts, research, and more, please check out my website (www.vanceginn.com) and subscribe to my newsletter (www.vanceginn.substack.com), share this post, and leave a comment.

​Click below to watch the episode and read on for show notes:

​We discuss:
1) Why he believes an economic bust is coming based on lending activities and economic indicators, and where there's corruption in the banking industry;
2) How high home mortgage rates after low rates during the pandemic are restricting supply, and how this affects the housing market; and
3) How the U.S. can rebuild its waning creditworthiness by Congress balancing the budget and putting taxpayer dollars to better use, and his thoughts on the Teacher Retirement System of Texas.
Dory’s bio:

• Dory A. Wiley is President & CEO of Commerce Street Holdings, LLC, the holding company for Commerce Street Capital, LLC (“CSC”), a FINRA member broker/dealer and Commerce Street Investment Management, LLC (“CSIM”), an SEC-registered investment advisor. Since co-founding the firm in 2007, his primary focus has been the creation and management of investment funds that specialize in financial institutions and related derivatives.
  
• Mr. Wiley serves on the Boards and Investment Committees of CSIM’s investment funds. He formerly served as a member of the Board of Trustees of the Teacher Retirement System of Texas, an approximately $100 billion pension fund where he was Chairman of the Investment Committee.
  
• Mr. Wiley has over 20 years of experience in commercial and investment banking and investment management. Prior to his current position with Commerce Street, Mr. Wiley was President of SAMCO Capital Markets, LLC, which he joined in August, 1996. Prior to SAMCO, he was Vice President and Manager of the Financial Institutions Group at Rauscher Pierce Refsnes, now RBC Capital Markets.
  
• Mr. Wiley often lectures on bank-related topics for universities, seminars and conferences. He has testified as an expert witness on bank and securities valuations, has written articles for various banking periodicals and has been quoted extensively in the media. He is a member of the AICPA, Texas Society of CPAs, the Dallas Society of Financial Analysts, the National Association of Certified Valuation Analysts, and the CFA Institute. He also serves on several charitable boards.
  
• Mr. Wiley received a BBA in Finance and Accounting from Texas Tech University, and an MBA from Southern Methodist University.
  
• Mr. Wiley is a registered representative and has passed the FINRA Series 7, 24, 63 and 65 examinations.
  

You can watch this episode and others along with my Let People Prosper Show on YouTube or listen to it on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Google Podcast, or Anchor. Please share, subscribe, like, and leave a 5-star rating!
For show notes, thoughtful insights, media interviews, speeches, blog posts, research, and more, please check out my website (www.vanceginn.com) and subscribe to my newsletter (www.vanceginn.substack.com), share this post, and leave a comment.

​In today's new episode of the "Let People Prosper" podcast, I'm thankful to be joined by Dr. Chuck Beauchamp for a thought-provoking discussion on new inflation numbers and the current economy.

​We discuss:
1) The newest inflation numbers and how the rate is impacting various markets including food, housing, and energy;
2) Interest rates' impact on the housing market and the crisis of affordability; and
3) Why the U.S. dollar's status could continue to wane and more.

You can watch this interview on YouTube or listen to it on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Google Podcast, or Anchor (please share, subscribe, like, and leave a 5-star rating).

​Chuck’s bio:

• Dr. Charles "Chuck" Beauchamp is an Associate Professor of Finance in the School of Business at Mississippi College. Dr. Beauchamp joined MC’s faculty in 2016 and currently teaches Business Finance, Financial Modeling, and Financial Markets.
• His areas of expertise are working capital, business & corporate lifecycles, and how monetary policies affect corporate decision making.
• He is a contributing fellow for the Mississippi Center for Public Policy.

Find show notes, thoughtful economic insights, media interviews, speeches, blog posts, research, and more here at my website (https://www.vanceginn.com/) or Substack newsletter (https://vanceginn.substack.com). Please subscribe to the newsletter, share it with your friends and family, and leave me a comment.

​It's no secret that relocators have recently favored moving to Florida. Recent data from the Florida Department of Motor Vehicles shows that people from New York, New Jersey, and California are among the states with the most people applying for Florida driver's licenses. In fact, according to the New York Post, the data showed that around 30,000 Californians applied for a Florida license in 2022.

Economist Vance Ginn believes he knows one of the major reasons that Californians are coming to Florida, and he believes it is fueled in part by saving money, as follows.

Cheaper Housing Fueled by Fewer Roadblocks to Real Estate Development: Ginn, who is chief economist at the Pelican Institute for Public Policy, recently co-authored an opinion piece in the Washington Examiner. In it, he laid out his argument that the primary motivation for relocating Californians to Florida and Texas is housing affordability, writing, in part:

"Housing affordability has been a major factor driving Californians to states such as Texas and Florida, where they can realistically afford the American dream of owning a home."Ginn further explains that Florida and Texas have less expensive housing because they implement fewer "bureaucratic bottlenecks" for real estate development, writing:

Florida has done a good job winning the war against excessive regulation to make way for more home construction...It’s not complicated: The states and cities that will prosper in the coming decade will be those that allow a less regulated housing market so the quantity of housing supplied can efficiently meet the quantity demanded."

U.S. News & World Report did conclude that California was the most regulated state in America. And although Ginn's article is written as an opinion piece, there is some evidence to support some of its claims, as follows.

California has 4 of the 10 Most Expensive Cities in the United States: According to a 2022 study by Rocket Mortgage, the markets of San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Jose, and San Diego were among the 10 most expensive cities in the United States, making up almost half of the country's most expensive places to live.

Generally Speaking, Housing in California is Much More Expensive than Housing in Florida: Although Florida's real estate markets have risen dramatically, they are still reasonably priced when you compare them to California's.
According to Zillow, the average home value in Florida is $404,939. In California, that same number is $760,644. So while some Floridians and those wishing to buy a home in Florida may lament the rising real estate markets, someone coming from California may see Florida real estate prices as a bargain.

Differences in State Income Tax: Although Ginn's writings didn't bring up the differences in state income tax, there are key differences between these two states that affect the cost of living.
California's state income tax ranges from rates of 1% to 12.3%, and the sales tax rate is 7.25% to 10.75%. Florida does not have a state income tax, and its sales tax rate is 6%.

Originally published at Newsbreak.

​California Gov. Gavin Newsom boldly — and a wee bit desperately — ran ads last summer encouraging Florida residents to relocate to California . Housing affordability is one reason it probably won't work.

Housing affordability has been a major factor driving Californians to states such as Texas and Florida, where they can realistically afford the American dream of owning a home.

​Cost of living — which is mainly a housing problem — and taxes round out the top motivations for fleeing the once-growing states such as California. The states that win on housing affordability from free-market-oriented policy win overall.

Twenty years ago, few would have bet on a mass exodus of residents from the popular albeit highly regulated housing market in California. Issues related to land use, zoning, and bureaucratic chaos led to substantially higher housing costs.

The five most expensive housing markets  nationwide are all within California. Further, a recent Hoover Institution report found that one of the top reasons companies leave California is “... high living costs, particularly the cost of housing affordability.” In the same vein, C2ER finds that California’s housing costs are about 1.7 times greater than Florida’s and 2.2 times higher than Texas’s.

​This contributes to California suffering losses of big businesses (11 Fortune 1,000 companies) between 2018 to 2021, along with small, quickly growing companies.

Texas and Florida have figured out the secret to housing affordably through free-market policies that help entrepreneurs address challenges to build more homes in a safe, less costly manner.

The recent census report shows how Florida drew the most net new domestic residents  (318,855), with Texas coming in second (230,961). Many people packed up and moved to states with “lower taxes, more affordable housing and a higher standard of living.” What’s more, Texas came in first in overall population growth (470,708), with Florida second (416,754).

These states are the ones that tend to let builders build more freely than the others. The Wharton Residential Land Use Regulation Index , one of the most respected analyses of the effect of regulation on price, shows a strong, positive correlation between house prices and over-regulation.

​Take, for example, San Francisco, where it takes 861 days to get a permit for one residential home. In Houston, it takes just 15 days . That’s huge savings for homebuilders and, therefore, homeowners.

For Texas to remain competitive, it must guard against bureaucratic bottlenecks like those developing in Austin, where simply getting residential site plans approved now takes one to two years .

To remain prosperous, Texas must keep and improve on free-market principles, especially in housing. Otherwise, the resulting higher costs of living will force people and businesses elsewhere.

Florida has done a good job winning the war against excessive regulation to make way for more home construction. In 2019, the Sunshine State passed a law allowing third parties to help streamline the permitting process, alleviating wait times for home construction. In 2021, it passed a shot-clock law that effectively limited permit responses by cities to no more than 30 days.

It’s not complicated: The states and cities that will prosper in the coming decade will be those that allow a less regulated housing market so the quantity of housing supplied can efficiently meet the quantity demanded.

For states that plan to attract business while retaining residents, they must improve the regulatory environment for builders by getting out of the way.

This should include streamlining building regulations to make it easier to build new housing, reforming land use policies to encourage development, and sorting out the bureaucratic bottleneck that complicates the building process.

Like musical chairs, if you have fewer chairs than people, some people have to find a new home … or a state.

Vance Ginn, former associate director for economic policy in the White House Office of Management and Budget, is president of  Ginn Economic Consulting, LLC , chief economist at Pelican Institute for Public Policy, and senior fellow at Young Americans for Liberty. Nicole Nabulsi Nosek is the founder and chair of Texans for Reasonable Solutions.

Originally published at Washington Examiner.