Our new report highlights Louisiana’s economic situation based on the most recent data. The report is based on several key factors that indicate how the economy, labor market, and public policy influence the lives of everyday Louisianans. While some of these data indicate a relatively strong labor market–such as the historically low unemployment rate–there are underlying factors showing Louisiana’s economic struggle.

Our Louisiana Comeback will happen through reforms that remove government barriers, bring jobs and opportunity back to Louisiana, and let people prosper. We must decide: Will we continue to hold on to the status quo (which hasn’t done us any favors), or will we embrace the significant reforms necessary to bring jobs and opportunity to Louisiana? We need the latter.

Read the full two-pager: Economic Report Oct 2023 

Originally published by Pelican Institute.​

​At first glance, you might think that Louisiana’s economy is doing great. After all, the state’s September 2023 jobs report shows record lows for the unemployment rate at 3.3% and and people unemployed at 67,930.
 
Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards cheered these data in a press release:
 
“Louisiana continues to set records for low unemployment. We’ve had 30 consecutive months of job growth and have added nearly 280,000 jobs since the worst of the pandemic. In fact, our employment levels are now higher than they were before COVID. Experts believe that our bipartisan work to grow and diversify our economy will benefit Louisiana for years to come. Economist Dr. Loren Scott recently predicted that Louisiana will add more than 80,000 jobs over the next two years. And we’ve done it all while overcoming historic natural disasters and a state government budget crisis. I have never been more optimistic about Louisiana than I am today.”
 
But does what you hear in the media or by some politicians match reality? Let’s dive into the data to see how things are going for Louisianans.
 
We should know that the Pelican State has many fantastic resources but too many failed public policies that keep Louisianans from reaching their full potential. This has been the case for a while, but most recently, the jobs reports indicate slowing employment growth and a declining labor force. Work matters, as it brings about dignity and self-sufficiency and leaves fewer people needing help from government safety net programs. These data below show that while the labor market data can look good on the surface, there are many real problems facing Louisianans that need to be addressed by state leaders. Fortunately, the Pelican Institute’s “Comeback Agenda,” including our fiscal reform plan, supports ways to overcome these challenges.
 
Here are key issues in Louisiana’s economy.
 
Table 1 provides Louisiana’s labor market data for important dates from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. These dates are December 2007, when the Great Recession started; February 2020, when the last expansion peaked before the COVID-19-related shutdowns; April 2020, when the shutdown recession ended; and September 2023, for the latest data available.

​Another weakness is economic growth.
 
Table 2 shows how the U.S. and Louisiana economies performed since 2020, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

​The steep declines were during the shutdowns in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was when the labor market suffered most. Figure 2 shows how the increase in real GDP in Louisiana of +1.4% in Q1:2023 ranked 31st in the country to $289.9 billion, after an annual decline in economic output by -1.8% in 2022 which was the second worst in the country.

The BEA also reported that personal income in Louisiana grew at an annualized pace of +6.2% (ranked 27th) to $258.5 billion in Q1:2023 (above +5.1% U.S. average). There was personal income growth of 0.0% in 2022, ranking 50th of the states.
 
Compared with neighboring states based on several measures there continue to be major concerns in Louisiana (see Table 3). 

​Bottom Line: Louisiana’s economy is weak when it comes to the labor market and economic growth and when compared with other states. Bold, transformational reforms can unleash the potential of Louisianans and make the state more competitive.

• There was an irresponsible budget passed in 2023 that excessively grew spending, busted spending caps in FY23 and FY 24, and didn’t provide tax relief even with billions in excess tax revenue.
• Given these results, there will not be improvements in the state’s poor business tax climate, net outmigration of Louisianans, or Louisiana having one of the highest poverty rates in the country—unless pro-growth reforms are enacted soon.
• The Pelican Institute’s “Comeback Agenda” that encourages spending restraint, tax reform, regulatory relief, education freedom, a revamp of workforce and social safety net programs, and more, would provide opportunities to enable people to prosper.
• This is not only what Louisiana needs; it’s what Louisianans want, according to a recent poll.

Originally published at Pelican Institute. 

​The headlines are filled with positive economic news for Louisiana, boasting record-low unemployment rates and impressive job growth. But digging deeper into the data reveals a more nuanced and challenging economic landscape that deserves attention and fast action.
 
At first glance, Louisiana's unemployment rate appears to be a shining success at just 3.3%. Governor John Bel Edwards has been vocal about the state's accomplishments, boasting a record low unemployment rate, "30 consecutive months of job growth," and the addition of nearly 280,000 jobs since the pandemic's peak.
 
But the unemployment rate only tells part of the story.
 
Looking at the data from before the COVID-19 pandemic, there are 36,329 fewer people of working age in Louisiana, totaling 3.5 million. Even though the number of people actively looking for work has increased by 1,566, many have left the state for better opportunities.
 
This is why the unemployment rate seems lower than it is.
 
Had those 36,329 people stayed in Louisiana to be part of the workforce and unemployment numbers, the real unemployment rate would be 4.9%, which is 48% higher than 3.3%. This statistic challenges the narrative and reveals underlying workforce participation and retention challenges.
 
Considering jobs added over the last 30 months, the Pelican State has had seven months of declining net jobs in the payroll survey and nine months with declines in the household survey. The latter measure has declined for four straight months resulting in 17,564 fewer people employed in that period, pointing to a turbulent job landscape.
 
At the same time, Louisiana’s gross domestic product (GDP) has seen concerning ups and downs.
 
In 2022, the state's real GDP shrank by 1.8%, making it one of the poorest performers in the nation. The most recent data indicate a modest 1.4% growth in the first quarter of 2023, ranking 31st in the country. These figures reveal economic instability and emphasize the need for a comprehensive approach to sustainable growth.
 
Finally, assessing personal income figures for state residents reveals additional economic weakness.
 
The first quarter of 2023 showed more promising trends for state residents’ personal income, with personal income growing at an annualized rate of 6.2%, ranking 27th nationwide. However, that has yet to make up for 2022, when personal income did not grow at all, making Louisiana’s personal income last among the 50 states that year.
 
The results are in: Louisiana’s economy is lacking, and transformative reforms are vital to unlock the Pelican State’s potential. If Louisiana continues on its current path, it risks maintaining a poor business tax climate, facing ongoing outmigration of residents, and perpetuating one of the highest poverty rates in the country.
 
Implementing better spending restraint, substantial tax reform, significant regulatory relief, universal education freedom, enhanced workforce development, and improved safety net programs are practical solutions that would empower Louisianans.
 
Fortunately, a recent poll underscores that these essential reforms are not only needed but also desired by Louisiana's residents. The Pelican State has the potential to become "the next big thing," a place where people want to move, provided its leaders take fast action to secure a brighter and more prosperous future for all. This is possible given a new governor and many state lawmakers next year.

Originally published at The Center Square. 

The Texas Legislature just found out it has a huge opportunity to correct its profligate spending failures made earlier this year. But instead, they’re gearing up to spend more at the expense of strapped taxpayers. This would be a fatal error for the Lone Star State.

Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar recently released the Comptroller's Revenue Estimate (CRE). This report acts like a financial checkup to confirm sufficient tax revenue available to cover expenditures based on the state’s balanced budget amendment.

The current two-year tax revenue for 2024-25 was updated higher to $194.6 billion available for general spending, an increase of 24.8% from the previous budget. This certified revenue estimate exceeds the $176.3 billion appropriated by the 88th Legislature for general purposes, resulting in a projected surplus of $18.3 billion.

This large amount is from a more vibrant economy than previously estimated and could go a long way to putting school property taxes on a path to elimination. Yet the Texas Legislature’s recent out-of-control spending habits indicate taxpayers probably won’t get more property tax relief than the minimal amount passed this year. 

The state wants to increase spending on a government school system in the current third special session rather than on students to have universal school choice. And spending could go up by more than $13 billion outside of the expenditure limit if voters approve most of the 14 constitutional amendments on the state ballot this year.

Add it all up, and it’s no wonder that Texans find living in many places across the state unaffordable.

While Texas has witnessed major economic achievements this year, such as noteworthy records for labor force participation and job creation, the 88th Legislature's actions raise serious concerns about the future. 

This year, the Lone Star State passed its largest spending increase, largest corporate welfare, and just the second-largest property tax cut in state history, which the latter will underwhelm homeowners when they get their bills. This could be a major problem for Republicans who have touted this as the “largest property tax cut in the world” or the “largest property tax cut in Texas history.” 

While Texans grapple with an affordability crisis, spending the state surplus and voters approving the proposed ballot items, except propositions 3 (prohibit wealth taxes) and 12 (abolish Galveston County treasurer’s office), would add insult to injury. 

Rather than squandering the surplus, the Texas Legislature should prioritize strengthening the Texas Model by: 

1. Spending less at the state and local levels, strengthen the state’s spending limit with the rate of population growth plus inflation covering all state funds, and have that spending limit also cover local government spending similar to Colorado’s Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights.

2. Taxing less by putting local property taxes on a path to elimination using surpluses to reduce school district M&O property tax rates until they are zero. Local governments should leverage their surpluses to reduce their property tax rates until they are zero.    

3. Regulating less by removing barriers to work, removing occupational licensing restrictions, reforming safety nets, and passing universal school choice.

Strengthening the Texas Model isn't just about fiscal responsibility; it's about securing a thriving future for generations to come. Texas, with its unique spirit and determination, can continue to lead the way, fostering an environment where free-market capitalism thrives and individuals prosper.

The surplus, instead of being frittered away on needless pursuits, should be a catalyst for transformation that redefines the Lone Star State's destiny, safeguards liberty, and sows the seeds of enduring prosperity.

​Originally published at The Center Square.

​Texas has been a leader in job creation. But Texas faces major headwinds as this year’s 88th Legislature has looked more like California than what Texans expect. There is a better way.

• This included the largest spending increase, largest corporate welfare increase, and subsequent second-largest property tax cut in the state’s history.
• Texas should pass universal education savings accounts the ongoing third special session called by Gov. Greg Abbott (R).
• Texans expect more from the largest red state in the country.

Free-market capitalism is the best path to let people prosper, as it is the best economic institution that supports jobs and entrepreneurship for more people to earn a living, gain skills, and build social capital.

​The labor market continues to improve in Texas even as there are some weaknesses.

• The payroll survey shows net nonfarm jobs in Texas increased by 61,400 last month, resulting in increases for 40 of the last 41 months, to bring record-high employment to 14.05 million. Texas has set a record high in total nonfarm employment for 24 straight months.
• Compared with a year ago, total employment was up by 435,800 (+3.2%)—the second fastest growth rate in the country—with the private sector adding 372,900 jobs (+3.3%) to 11.98 million and the government adding 62,900 jobs (+3.1%) to 2.07 million.
• Figure 1 shows that inflation-adjusted average weekly earnings are increasing in most industries in Texas, with inflation still running hot at least at 3.7%.

​

• The household survey shows that the labor force participation rate is higher and the employment-population rate matches those in February 2020, but the former is well below December 2007 at the start of the Great Recession.
• The state’s unemployment rate of 4.1% is higher than the U.S. rate of 3.8% but this is a weak indicator as it’s highly volatile based on changes in the labor force, and the labor force continues to increase in Texas.
• Shortages in the labor market are across the economy as many still sit on the sidelines from profligate safety nets primarily from the federal government over the last three years.

The economy continues to expand in Texas though there are headwinds.

• The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the real gross domestic product (GDP) by state for 2022.
• Figure 2 shows Texas had the fifteenth fastest real GDP growth of +3.0% to $1.94 trillion in 2023:Q1 (above the U.S. average of +2.0% to $20.28 trillion).

​

• The BEA also reported that personal income in Texas grew by 6.7% to $1.94 trillion in 2023:Q1 which was the 22nd highest in the country. This is above the U.S. growth rate of 5.1% (to $22.51 trillion).

As Texans face an affordability crisis from high inflation and high property taxes and an uncertain future with the U.S. economy likely in a deepening recession, the Legislature provided some tax relief but not nearly enough because of excessive spending.

• Other states are cutting, flattening, and phasing out taxes, passing responsible budgets, and passing school choice, so Texas should have made bold reforms to support more opportunities to let people prosper, mitigate the affordability crisis, and withstand destructive policies out of D.C.
• Figure 3 provides a comparison of the size of government, economic freedom, and economic outcomes among the four largest states and nearby Louisiana.

​

• While Texas does relatively well, there is much more to do for more liberty and prosperity.

The Texas Legislature should improve the Texas Model by:

• Passing pro-growth policies that:
  • Spend Less: Lower state government spending and pass responsible local spending limits.
  • Tax Less: Start eliminating local property taxes with historic surpluses at the state level to buy down school district M&O property taxes and at the local level by using their own surpluses to buy down their own property tax rates.
  • Regulate Less: Improve workforce development, remove barriers to work, reduce occupational licensing, reform safety nets, and enact universal school choice.

Strengthening the Texas Model will help Texans better resist D.C.’s overreach and flourish more for generations to come.

Originally published at Texans for Fiscal Responsibility. 

I hope you enjoy the fantastic 67th Let People Prosper Show episode with TX State Rep. Brian Harrison! Please subscribe to my newsletter if you haven’t already, and subscribe to my podcast wherever you get yours. I would appreciate it if you would also rate and review my podcast!

​Brian (bio) and I discuss:

• His experience serving as the former Chief of Staff at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services in the Trump administration, including before, during, and after the pandemic and efforts to advance medical freedom;
  
• His thoughts on how Texas' state and local governments responded to the pandemic and other efforts that expanded the size and scope of government; and
  
• The biggest threats facing Texas' liberty today, including high government spending, burdensome property taxes, lack of school choice, and more.
  

​While the latest “strong” US jobs report and “cooling” CPI inflation have been touted as promising, a closer look reveals more complexity, and many American families continue to bear the brunt of DC’s failures over the last three-plus years. 
The payroll survey’s net gain of 336,000 non-farm jobs is a popular headline, as the figure nearly doubled expectations.

But the household survey, a second crucial report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows that only 84,000 jobs were added in September. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate stayed at 3.8 percent, which would be much higher if more people were looking for work. 

Let’s consider the labor force participation rate of 62.8 percent to double-check the headlines. 

If this rate were 63.3 percent, as it was in February 2020, there would be 1.4 million more people in the labor force. If they are all unemployed, today’s unemployment rate would be nearly 5 percent, which is substantially higher than the touted 3.8 percent rate. 

There have also been substantial revisions to the non-farm jobs report in recent months because of volatile data used for seasonal adjustments since the shutdowns, which makes much of it “garbage in, garbage out.” There were, for example, an additional 119,000 jobs added over just July and August than what was initially reported, giving us reason for pause with all of these reports. 

In short, this volatility in the job market data makes it challenging to discern actual trends, especially when Americans continue to be concerned about the economy.

On top of a fickle job market, the latest consumer price index (CPI) sits at 3.7 percent over the past year, while the core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is 4.1 percent. This core inflation rate is double the Federal Reserve’s average inflation rate target and doesn’t show any signs of reverting to 2 percent any time soon. 

This problem was created by the Fed’s bloated balance sheet, which results from its willingness to help finance the federal budget deficits caused by excessive government spending. Until Congress reins in government spending and money printing, inflation will strain household budgets.

Also, real (inflation-adjusted) average weekly earnings dropped by 0.2 percent over the past year, and the average family’s real income has suffered a significant blow, with a decline of more than $7,000 since the start of 2021. 

These financial setbacks are not coincidental. They are the direct result of the progressive policies of the Biden Administration, the Federal Reserve’s bloated balance sheet, and Congress’s habit of excessive spending.

If we want to understand the true state of our economy, we should pay more attention to the Fed’s balance sheet, which remains a crucial indicator of inflationary pressures. This is why I was never on team “transitory inflation.” Even a relatively superficial understanding of the work of Milton Friedman, Friedrich Hayek, and John Taylor has indicated from the start that we would face persistent inflation. 

Sure, supply-side factors contributed to higher prices in some markets, as did supply chain bottlenecks. But those are short-term fluctuations that don’t tell the entire story of reduced purchasing power for everyone over a longer period, which is a story of failed public policy on top of the failed shutdowns during the pandemic. 

The explanation is pretty straightforward. There was a sudden halt in the economy due to pandemic shutdowns that distorted many exchanges throughout the marketplace. The federal government then sent out redistributed money to individuals and employers so they wouldn’t have to fret too much during a stressful time. This propped up many Americans, creating any number of zombie firms, zombie workers, and a debt-fueled zombie economy. 

But this alone wouldn’t explain the inflation, as increased government spending doesn’t stimulate anything other than more government and some specific markets. 

Next, the Fed more than doubled its balance sheet, increasing its assets from $4 trillion to $9 trillion. This doesn’t lead to long-term economic growth, but it does contribute to many market distortions and inflation across the economy. Much of this money stays in the hands of the banks, mortgage companies, and others at the upper part of the income spectrum. Only then does some of it spread further, in a process known as the Cantillon effect. 

The problem is not only a propped-up economy with multiple asset bubbles, but reduced purchasing power that punishes lower-income families the most. Few, if any, of the positives from more money in circulation goes to these families. Instead, they have seen whatever savings they had dwindle. 

To achieve a more stable and prosperous economic future, we must strike a balance between sound fiscal and monetary policies and curb excessive government spending and money printing. This will only begin to happen when we have rules that control discretionary policies by the administration, Congress, and the Fed. 

While headline jobs and inflation data might suggest a strong economic recovery, digging just a little deeper into the data shows a weak economy with major challenges. It’s time for policymakers to take a hard look at the factors contributing to these economic woes and adopt prudent policies that address the root causes of stagflation.

Originally published by AIER. 

Originally published at American Institute for Economic Research.

W​hile the latest “strong” US jobs report and “cooling” CPI inflation have been touted as promising, a closer look reveals more complexity, and many American families continue to bear the brunt of DC’s failures over the last three-plus years. 

The payroll survey’s net gain of 336,000 non-farm jobs is a popular headline, as the figure nearly doubled expectations. But the household survey, a second crucial report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows that only 84,000 jobs were added in September. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate stayed at 3.8 percent, which would be much higher if more people were looking for work. 

Let’s consider the labor force participation rate of 62.8 percent to double-check the headlines. 

If this rate were 63.3 percent, as it was in February 2020, there would be 1.4 million more people in the labor force. If they are all unemployed, today’s unemployment rate would be nearly 5 percent, which is substantially higher than the touted 3.8 percent rate. 

There have also been substantial revisions to the non-farm jobs report in recent months because of volatile data used for seasonal adjustments since the shutdowns, which makes much of it “garbage in, garbage out.” There were, for example, an additional 119,000 jobs added over just July and August than what was initially reported, giving us reason for pause with all of these reports. 

In short, this volatility in the job market data makes it challenging to discern actual trends, especially when Americans continue to be concerned about the economy.

On top of a fickle job market, the latest consumer price index (CPI) sits at 3.7 percent over the past year, while the core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is 4.1 percent. This core inflation rate is double the Federal Reserve’s average inflation rate target and doesn’t show any signs of reverting to 2 percent any time soon. 

This problem was created by the Fed’s bloated balance sheet, which results from its willingness to help finance the federal budget deficits caused by excessive government spending. Until Congress reins in government spending and money printing, inflation will strain household budgets.

Also, real (inflation-adjusted) average weekly earnings dropped by 0.2 percent over the past year, and the average family’s real income has suffered a significant blow, with a decline of more than $7,000 since the start of 2021. 

These financial setbacks are not coincidental. They are the direct result of the progressive policies of the Biden Administration, the Federal Reserve’s bloated balance sheet, and Congress’s habit of excessive spending.

If we want to understand the true state of our economy, we should pay more attention to the Fed’s balance sheet, which remains a crucial indicator of inflationary pressures. This is why I was never on team “transitory inflation.” Even a relatively superficial understanding of the work of Milton Friedman, Friedrich Hayek, and John Taylor has indicated from the start that we would face persistent inflation. 

Sure, supply-side factors contributed to higher prices in some markets, as did supply chain bottlenecks. But those are short-term fluctuations that don’t tell the entire story of reduced purchasing power for everyone over a longer period, which is a story of failed public policy on top of the failed shutdowns during the pandemic. 

The explanation is pretty straightforward. There was a sudden halt in the economy due to pandemic shutdowns that distorted many exchanges throughout the marketplace. The federal government then sent out redistributed money to individuals and employers so they wouldn’t have to fret too much during a stressful time. This propped up many Americans, creating any number of zombie firms, zombie workers, and a debt-fueled zombie economy. 

But this alone wouldn’t explain the inflation, as increased government spending doesn’t stimulate anything other than more government and some specific markets. 

Next, the Fed more than doubled its balance sheet, increasing its assets from $4 trillion to $9 trillion. This doesn’t lead to long-term economic growth, but it does contribute to many market distortions and inflation across the economy. Much of this money stays in the hands of the banks, mortgage companies, and others at the upper part of the income spectrum. Only then does some of it spread further, in a process known as the Cantillon effect. 

The problem is not only a propped-up economy with multiple asset bubbles, but reduced purchasing power that punishes lower-income families the most. Few, if any, of the positives from more money in circulation goes to these families. Instead, they have seen whatever savings they had dwindle. 

To achieve a more stable and prosperous economic future, we must strike a balance between sound fiscal and monetary policies and curb excessive government spending and money printing. This will only begin to happen when we have rules that control discretionary policies by the administration, Congress, and the Fed. 

While headline jobs and inflation data might suggest a strong economic recovery, digging just a little deeper into the data shows a weak economy with major challenges. It’s time for policymakers to take a hard look at the factors contributing to these economic woes and adopt prudent policies that address the root causes of stagflation.