​As we turn the page on another year, the questions facing the economy aren’t abstract—they’re deeply personal. 

Families are watching prices, businesses are weighing risk, and policymakers are deciding whether the year ahead will bring stability or more uncertainty. The choices made in the months ahead will shape not just headlines, but real lives and livelihoods.

In this episode of This Week’s Economy, I look ahead to 2026 and lay out the policy battles most likely to define the year. From trade and inflation to artificial intelligence, these decisions will determine whether we move toward prosperity or remain stuck in cycles of dysfunction. I urge leaders to return to the basic economic principles that work—and to choose policies that let people prosper in the year ahead.

Find the show notes at vanceginn.substack.com or visit my website vanceginn.com.

Originally published on Substack. 

If the economy feels harder to navigate—even after tax cuts, deregulation, and promises of growth—there’s a reason. I’ve seen it before, up close, from inside the White House.
​
This isn’t hindsight punditry. I lived it. Not sure how or why it happened, but God.

I served at the Office of Management and Budget from June 2019 through May 2020, at the pleasure of President Donald Trump as a political appointee as associate director for economic policy (“chief economist”).

I worked on what became the president’s final budget, which included $4.6 trillion in proposed savings over a decade—documented in the OMB Budget Historical Tables and scored against Congressional Budget Office baselines.
And even that wasn’t enough.

I’m writing this now because the second Trump administration reflects a deeper shift—away from pro-growth reform and toward national conservatism using progressive tools. If this continues, it will make life harder for millions of Americans, regardless of intent.

My goal here isn’t to attack; it’s to share lessons learned, warn about concerns, and offer a better path forward.

​What I Supported—and What I Warned About

Inside the administration, I strongly supported policies that genuinely helped people prosper:

• Tax relief and marginal rate reductions, especially the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which improved incentives for work, saving, and investment
• Deregulation, particularly in energy, finance, and labor markets, with compliance-cost reductions
• Pro-growth reforms that trusted people and markets—not Washington—to allocate resources

But I consistently raised concerns—internally—about three areas:

• Trade protectionism, which I warned would raise relative prices and distort supply chains—later confirmed by research
• Immigration restrictions, which reduce labor supply and long-run growth, as documented later
• Overspending, which I argued would eventually overwhelm much of the benefits of tax cuts and deregulation, which it did

At OMB, many of us pushed hard for spending restraint. The uncomfortable truth is that spending discipline was not a top priority for the president or many agency heads. Not then. And judging by today’s policies, definitely not now.

Internally, the warning was clear—and it bears repeating today: excessive spending and trade protectionism would undo the gains from tax cuts and deregulation.

When COVID Hit, Government Power Took Over

When COVID escalated in early 2020, I was often working with our senior leadership team at OMB and other executive personnel to devise ways to get government out of the way, not expand it—through regulatory relief, waivers, and flexibility consistent with OMB emergency guidance.

I also sat—more than once—in the White House’s Situation Room with economic teams to discuss how people (the economy) would respond to different policy paths.

I was vehemently opposed to lockdowns.

I warned senior leadership and others intensely that the policies being pushed by Dr. Anthony Fauci and others would:

• Break market coordination (supported by analyses on mobility restrictions and economic activity)
• Destroy small businesses (shown in data)
• Centralize power (massive expansion in spending by Congress and Fed)
• Cause long-run damage far worse than acknowledged (education loss, lockdown-related deaths, etc.)

Ultimately, whether President Trump agreed or not, he went along with lockdowns. That decision became one of the largest government failures in modern history—economically, socially, and institutionally.

Lockdowns didn’t just pause the economy. They rewired the relationship between government and markets, normalizing trillions in new spending, debt monetization by the Federal Reserve, and executive control over daily life.
Nearly every affordability crisis we face today traces back to then.

Why I’m More Concerned Today

Back then, there were still people inside the administration pushing back—arguing for restraint, markets, and limits on government power.

Today, I’m not sure that’s true.
​
It increasingly looks like national conservatives (“natcons”) have captured the MAGA policy agenda and are comfortable with:

• Government picking winners and losers through subsidies and mandates
• Price controls and caps on interest rates for credit cards
• Protectionism as an erratic policy with high tariff rates

• Industrial policy and subsidies for purchase of a share of Intel, use of $200 billion to purchase mortgage backed securities, Trump accounts, Trump RX, and more
• Carveouts and exemptions instead of pro-growth tax policy

That’s not conservatism.

It’s not libertarianism.

And it’s not free-market capitalism.
​
Functionally, it’s progressivism with different branding—and it erodes the institutional framework that made American prosperity possible.

Spending is the Problem: Economic Chain Reaction Too Few People See

Here are the steps for how spending seems benign but it is a malignant cancer metastasizing throughout our lives and livelihoods:

1. Overspending leads to deficits.
2. Deficits add to debt.
3. Debt pushes interest rates higher.
4. Higher rates attract foreign capital, strengthening the dollar.
5. A stronger dollar widens trade deficits (not an issue but some hate it), which politicians then “fix” with tariffs.
6. Higher rates pressure the Fed to buy Treasury debt.
7. Debt monetization fuels inflation, distorting the orders of production while reducing real wages and increasing inequality and poverty.

​This isn’t ideology. It’s arithmetic. And it’s happening now.

What Should Be Done Instead

The hopeful part is that none of this is irreversible.
​
That’s why my work has focused on sustainable budgeting with groups like Americans for Tax Reform, the Club for Growth Foundation, and others. You can see that framework here:

• Let Americans Prosper Project: Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability for America’s Future
• Responsible State Budgets Across the U.S.

States that limit spending growth to population growth plus inflation often run surpluses, cut taxes sustainably, and avoid debt spirals.

Washington should finally learn from them.
​
A real pro-growth agenda would:

• Spend less—now, not later (yes, cutting government spend is pro-growth!)
• End trade protectionism (end tariffs and have the focus on what we can control regarding policies at home instead of trying to change policies abroad)
• Reject price controls (say no to credit card interest rate caps, no to MFN drug pricing, and more)
• Stop picking winners and losers (don’t take shares of private businesses, don’t give $1,000 of taxpayer money to parents with newborns, don’t remove specific things like tips, overtime SS income, interest on car loans from the tax code but instead lower and flatten the income tax rates)

• Unleash supply in housing, energy, healthcare, and capital markets (end Dodd-Frank , CFPB and Section 1033 rule, empower patients, and remove incentives in demand and supply side of housing and other markets)
• Let people in markets work!

A Final, Personal Note—and a Small Ask

I’m not writing this to relitigate the past—or to score political points.

I’m writing it because I’ve seen how quickly good intentions turn into bad outcomes when government power replaces market institutions. I’ve also seen how powerful growth can be when policymakers trust people, markets, and sound rules.

The Trump administration has governed for growth before. It can do so again. But only if it rejects progressive tools—no matter how they’re labeled—and recommits to the institutions that allow people to prosper.
​
As Milton Friedman reminded us, policies should be judged by results, not intentions.

​If you’ve ever wondered why so many people assume progress is automatic, why trillion-dollar deficits barely raise eyebrows anymore, or why “economic planning” keeps making a comeback despite its long record of failure—this episode gets to the heart of the issue.

Prosperity doesn’t happen by accident. Freedom doesn’t sustain itself. And history doesn’t bend toward progress unless the rules of the game allow it to.
That’s why this conversation matters.

My guest is ⁠Dr. Peter Boettke⁠, Distinguished University Professor of Economics at George Mason University and Director of the F.A. Hayek Program at the Mercatus Center. This is Peter’s third appearance (episodes ⁠10⁠ and ⁠119⁠) on the Let People Prosper Show, and every time he joins, he brings clarity to questions most policymakers avoid.

Today’s discussion centers on his new book, ⁠The Historical Path to Liberty and Human Progress⁠, which makes a simple but uncomfortable point: human flourishing depends on institutions—and bad institutions destroy progress faster than good intentions can save it.

At a time of runaway federal spending, renewed industrial policy, and bipartisan refusal to confront tradeoffs, this conversation couldn’t be more timely.

🎧 Listen to the full episode of the Let People Prosper Show, and subscribe on YouTube. You can also find more of my show notes at vanceginn.substack.com and read my work at ⁠vanceginn.com⁠.

Originally published on Substack. 

​Affordability is the issue that decides elections because it decides everyday life.

Families don’t measure success by press releases or selective charts. They measure it by whether housing, groceries, insurance, healthcare, childcare, and borrowing costs fit inside a paycheck.

That’s why recent claims celebrating lower inflation metrics ring hollow for so many Americans.

For example, the White House recently shared this post on X claiming that “core inflation at its lowest in nearly five years.”

​Inflation isn’t gone. It’s much higher than pre-Trump-Fauci-COVID lockdowns. It’s being managed, delayed, and quietly socialized. And unless we change the rules that created this mess, affordability will remain out of reach.

Who Broke Affordability—and Why It Matters

Let’s be clear about responsibility, because pretending this is a one-party problem is how we repeat it.
​
The affordability crisis is the product of serial policy failures across administrations and institutions:

• Republican leadership, including during Trump’s first term, embraced protectionist tariffs, raising costs and uncertainty while allowing trade taxes to be imposed without full congressional accountability.
• Democratic leadership, especially under President Biden, layered on regulatory expansion and spending growth, pushing costs higher across energy, housing, healthcare, and finance.
• Congress—controlled by both parties at different times— normalized trillion-dollar deficits, turning “emergency” spending into a permanent baseline.
• The Federal Reserve under Chair Jerome Powell accommodated it all, expanding and maintaining a massive balance sheet to suppress interest rates and monetize fiscal excess.
• State and local governments, regardless of party, followed Washington’s lead and locked in higher spending that now crowds out private activity.

Each actor contributed. Each avoided hard limits. And each relied—explicitly or implicitly—on inflation to paper over bad decisions.
​
That’s why affordability collapsed.

The Fed’s Balance Sheet Tells the Real Story

If inflation were truly beaten, the Federal Reserve wouldn’t still be sitting on a $6.6 trillion balance sheet filled with Treasury debt, mortgage-backed securities, and agency debt.

The data from the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet on FRED make the problem obvious:

• About $0.8 trillion in 2008
• Roughly $4.0 trillion in 2020
• Up to $9.0 trillion during the lockdowns
• Total $6.6 trillion today—roughly 20% of GDP, compared to about 5% before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis

That expansion isn’t neutral. It reshaped the economy.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth often missing from official messaging: The Fed isn’t maintaining this balance sheet because inflation has been defeated. It hasn’t.

The Fed is trapped because allowing interest rates to fully clear would sharply raise federal debt-service costs. So yields are suppressed, Treasury issuance is absorbed, and rates are kept artificially lower than they otherwise would be.

That’s not independent monetary policy.

That’s fiscal dominance.

Why Inflation Fuels Inequality by Design

New money and the resulting inflation never hit everyone equally.

New money enters the economy unevenly. It flows first into:

• Financial markets
• Asset prices
• Housing
• Large firms with access to capital markets

Wages, savings, and fixed incomes adjust last.

That’s how you get:

• Asset bubbles
• Higher rents and home prices
• Distorted capital allocation
• A widening divide between large firms and small businesses

Families feel squeezed. Entrepreneurs struggle. Meanwhile, firms closest to capital markets adapt just fine.

Then politicians—on both sides—blame “greed” or “capitalism” for outcomes driven by policy.

Let’s be precise: this isn’t free-market capitalism.

It’s government-managed finance layered on top of regulatory and trade intervention.
​
What a Pro-Affordability Agenda Requires: Three Rules

If affordability is the goal—and it should be—policy must be anchored to rules, not discretion.

1) A Spending Rule (Fiscal Discipline)

Government spending growth should be capped below population growth plus inflation—a Sustainable Budget rule, long advanced by my work at Ginn Economic Consulting, Americans for Tax Reform (ATR), Club for Growth Foundation, and others. This forces prioritization, prevents structural deficits, and restores credibility that debt will be managed through restraint rather than higher taxes and inflation.

2) A Monetary Rule (Sound Money)

The Fed needs a binding constraint—either a fixed growth rule for high-powered money or a cap on its balance sheet tied to the size of the economy. Returning toward ~5% of GDP, where the Fed stood before 2008, would end permanent “emergencies,” reduce asset inflation, and protect purchasing power.

3) A Trade Rule (Constitutional Accountability)

Tariffs are taxes. Under the Constitution, only Congress has the authority to raise taxes. The executive branch can make the case when action is warranted, but unilateral tariff authority undermines accountability, raises prices quietly, and fuels uncertainty. Restoring congressional control over tariff taxation could directly support affordability.

Why This Matters for Trump—and the Country

President Trump is right to focus on affordability. That’s where voters live. But lasting affordability cannot be built on protectionism, discretionary monetary policy, or unchecked spending.

A pro-growth agenda must also be pro-rules on government:

• Rules that restrain spending
• Rules that discipline money
• Rules that limit hidden taxes

That combination doesn’t just tame inflation. It restores competition, lowers barriers to entry, and expands opportunity—especially for small businesses and households without access to robust financial markets.

The Bottom Line

Affordability is not a slogan. It is an outcome. And outcomes follow incentives.

If policymakers want prices to stabilize, wages to rise in real terms, and opportunity to broaden, they must bind themselves to rules that work—even when inconvenient.

That’s how trust is rebuilt.

That’s how growth becomes durable.

And that’s how we let people prosper.

​As we turn the page into a new year, many of us take stock, set goals, and make resolutions that help us grow. Policymakers should be no different. After years of rising debt, higher prices, regulatory overreach, and political gridlock, America is overdue for a reset—one rooted in timeless principles and practical reforms. This New Year’s resolutions list isn’t about sweeping government plans or partisan wish-casting. It’s about returning to what works: fiscal responsibility, economic freedom, empowering families, and trusting people—not bureaucracies—to drive prosperity. If lawmakers commit to these resolutions, 2026 can be a year of renewed opportunity and a stronger, freer America.

For more insights, visit vanceginn.com. You can also get even greater value by subscribing to my Substack newsletter at vanceginn.substack.com. Please share with your friends, family, and broader social media network.