​PMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says Americans would be making a “huge mistake” if they believe narratives saying the U.S. economy is booming.
​
NTD spoke to Vance Ginn, the president of Ginn Economic Consulting and former Chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget, on some ideas to kickstart the economy. Ginn says he agrees with Dimon’s statement, citing increasing inflationary pressures and  inflation-adjusted spending being basically flat.

Watch my full interview on NTD News here.

As the U.S. commemorates Labor Day, we should consider how many Americans aren’t actively participating in the workforce and what to do about it.

The labor force participation rate was 66% in 2007, declining to 63.3% in February 2020. Today, it’s even lower at 62.8%. Although there are many reasons for this trend, including Baby Boomers retiring, one glaring cause that will continue to exacerbate it with time is the flawed safety-net system. 

Labor Day was created to commemorate the many contributions of American workers, and rightly so. There’s an inspiring symbiotic relationship between the dignity individuals derive from working and the flourishing that the country experiences as a result. This is why it’s so concerning that the current structure of the many safety-net programs can disincentivize work-capable individuals from seeking, finding and keeping employment. Too often, these recipients become trapped in a cycle of government dependence. ​

​Programs like Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) have minimal work requirements. This can discourage users from seeking better-paying employment opportunities, especially if the increase in income reduces the payments from these programs, which is called a benefits cliff. With purchasing power decreased from ongoing inflation, dependence on these programs is growing. 

There’s a high cost of these programs on recipients and taxpayers funding it, with little to show for it.

​Anti-poverty efforts have cost taxpayers about $25 trillion (adjusted for inflation) since 1965 and more than $1 trillion annually. While the official poverty rate in America has barely changed since 1970, only six years after President Lyndon B. Johnson declared the “war on poverty,” other measures show substantial improvements in people’s livelihoods. But much of that is because of safety-net programs that boost people’s income at the expense of other taxpayers.

​Ideally, a flourishing civil society with strong families, communities, nonprofits, churches and other institutions in civil society would render government assistance irrelevant. But we’re a long way from that vision being attainable. Until then, these programs need key reforms, and implementing empowerment accounts (EAs) would help.

EAs are designed to consolidate state-administered safety-net programs into a single account accessible through a debit card. While they initially focus on streamlining existing programs, their potential lies in gradually replacing most, if not all, other safety-net programs over time. 

EAs incorporate a work requirement for work-capable adults, complemented by skills training and education. Recipients would also have access to financial literacy education, community-based case management and opportunities to build savings while enrolled in the program, helping reduce the benefits cliff.

An essential aspect of EAs is their adaptability. 

The account’s government contribution would depend on current income, assets and dependents. Unlike current safety-net programs with income thresholds that create benefit cliffs, empowerment accounts would use a time limit while offering more flexible income limits for up to a year. This approach ensures recipients are motivated to achieve self-sufficiency within a defined period. Community-based case management, provided by established non-profit organizations, would connect recipients with crucial resources and foster connections within local communities.

EA’s structure of requiring participation from safety-net recipients would go beyond merely providing financial assistance to equipping them to sustain fiscal and employment stability. The result would not only mean taxpayer funds are more efficiently spent, but struggling individuals are equipped for independence, leading to a decreased poverty rate, higher labor force participation rate and a flourishing economy. ​

​Too often, the government promotes mediocrity by quickly “rescuing” people from their situation without showing them how to maintain stability. But all individuals deserve to experience the irreplaceable satisfaction that comes from earned self-sufficiency. 

While celebrating Labor Day, Americans should emphasize not lack of work but meaningful work that aligns with individual callings. By empowering individuals to regain their financial independence through encouraging labor force participation, we pave the way for holistic human flourishing. 

Implementing empowerment accounts would mark a pivotal step towards promoting prosperity and reducing dependency on government safety nets.

Originally published by The Daily Caller. 

In this episode, we discuss:

​1) How Arkansas continues to grapple with the same issues decade after decade, including a broken foster care system, high poverty rates, and poor K-12 reading scores;
2) Why safety net reforms are key to Arkansas' flourishing, specifically concerning Medicaid; and
3) How more school choice would put Arkansas on the map, and why Arkansas has the potential to be the next go-to state like Texas, Florida, and Tennessee.

​Nic’s bio:

• Nic Horton is the founder and CEO of Opportunity Arkansas.
• A lifelong Arkansan, Nic has done political and policy work in roughly half the country, ranging from Maine to Montana. His original research and analysis has been highlighted in The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Forbes, National Review Online, the Washington Examiner, and Townhall, among other national outlets. Nic has also appeared on numerous talk radio shows across the country.
• Starting in the political world volunteering for local in Arkansas campaigns, Nic eventually founded and led The Arkansas Patriot, one of the leading conservative news sites in the South. Much of Nic’s work focused on holding local governments and elected officials accountable on wasteful spending, lack of transparency, and tax hikes. Partnering with local concerned citizens, Nic played an instrumental role in defeating numerous local tax increases at the ballot.
• Nic later became the editor of The Arkansas Project, the largest policy news site in Arkansas, where he covered state issues ranging from criminal justice policy and tax reform to Medicaid expansion and occupational licensing.
• Nic’s early career as a journalist and Medicaid policy enthusiast led him to the Foundation for Government Accountability (FGA). Starting as the lone research fellow at FGA, focusing on Obamacare and Medicaid, Nic was quickly promoted to Research Director. Over the next five years, he built the department from the ground up by recruiting, training, and developing top-notch talent. Nic’s team members regularly were recruited and promoted by other departments in the organization which was openly recognized as a key asset for the company and an indication of his high ability to develop talent. During his tenure, he published more than 50 major research studies.
• During his tenure at FGA, Nic also served as an on-the-ground lobbyist in Arkansas where he was directly responsible for nearly 100 policy wins in the state (Previously, the organization had never achieved any policy wins in Arkansas). These wins range from implementing Medicaid work requirements—which made Arkansas the first and only state in the country to do so—to reforming the state’s archaic independent contractor rules to make it easier for Arkansans to find flexible work.
• Nic has testified before legislative committees in nearly a dozen states, including in Arkansas and bigger states like Pennsylvania.
• Spurred by his passion for Arkansas and solving his home state’s generational problems, Nic took a giant leap of faith in 2022 to pursue his decades-old dream of running his own policy organization. In August of 2022, Opportunity Arkansas was officially incorporated with the state of Arkansas. OA works to solve generational problems—like poverty, dependency, crime, and failing schools—by simplifying government.
• Nic also launched his for-profit research firm, Red Truck Strategies, in 2022 to allow him to continue utilizing his multi-state and federal policy expertise. The firm provides research, data, and strategic consulting services, primarily for national conservative non-profits.
• Nic resides in Conway, Arkansas, with his wife Leah and two children Clark and Clara. The Hortons are active members of The Summit Church.
• When he is not writing a policy piece or chasing his kids, Nic enjoys gardening, any good home improvement project, and storytelling. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Public Administration and a Master of Business Administration, both from Harding University.

You can watch this episode and others along with my Let People Prosper Show on YouTube or listen to it on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Google Podcast, or Anchor. Please share, subscribe, like, and leave a 5-star rating!
For show notes, thoughtful insights, media interviews, speeches, blog posts, research, and more, check out my website (https://www.vanceginn.com/) and please subscribe to my newsletter (www.vanceginn.substack.com), share this post, and leave a comment.

​Today, I'm honoring what would have been the 111th birthday of Nobel prize winner and economist Milton Friedman.

​His economic wisdom has profoundly impacted my philosophy. By discussing some of his most famous quotes, I divulge how so much of Friedman's findings and theories still apply today, and how we could have a better economy with more human flourishing by incorporating more of his research and views.

​Two of my favorite books of his I recommend:

1. “Capitalism and Freedom” and
2. “Free to Choose”

You can watch this episode and others along with my Let People Prosper Show on YouTube or listen to it on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Google Podcast, or Anchor. Please share, subscribe, like, and leave a 5-star rating!
​
For show notes, thoughtful insights, media interviews, speeches, blog posts, research, and more, check out my website (https://www.vanceginn.com/) and please subscribe to my newsletter (www.vanceginn.substack.com), share this post, and leave a comment.

Today, I'm honored to be joined by Dr. Michael Munger, director of the interdisciplinary politics, philosophy, and economics program at Duke University and professor of political science.

We discuss:
1) How transaction costs, including regulations and political corruption, prolong poverty and prevent prosperity and the role of economic freedom in human flourishing;
2) Whether capitalism can work within America’s republic and the ways in which it's currently failing because of too much government; and
3) Why cutting taxes without cutting spending is futile and the need for de-regulation, especially in regards to housing.

​Dr. Munger’s bio:

• Professor Munger received his Ph.D. in Economics at Washington University in St. Louis in 1984. Following his graduate training, he worked as a staff economist at the Federal Trade Commission. His first teaching job was in the Economics Department at Dartmouth College, followed by appointments in the Political Science Department at the University of Texas at Austin (1986-1990) and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (1990-1997). At UNC he directed the MPA Program, which trains public service professionals, especially city and county management.
• He moved to Duke in 1997, and was Chair of the Political Science Department from 2000 through 2010. He has won three University-wide teaching awards (the Howard Johnson Award, an NAACP "Image" Award for teaching about race, and admission to the Bass Society of Teaching Fellows). He is currently director of the interdisciplinary PPE Program at Duke University.
• Munger’s recent books include “Choosing in Groups” (coauthored with his son, Kevin Munger) and "The Thing Itself," both in 2015. His research interests include the study of the morality of exchange and the working of the new "Middleman Economy." Much of his recent work has been in philosophy, examining the concept of truly voluntary exchange, a concept for which he coined the term "euvoluntary." His newest book addresses the sharing economy, and is entitled "Tomorrow 3.0.".

You can watch this episode and others along with my Let People Prosper Show on YouTube or listen to it on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Google Podcast, or Anchor. Please share, subscribe, like, and leave a 5-star rating!
​
For show notes, thoughtful insights, media interviews, speeches, blog posts, research, and more, check out my website (https://www.vanceginn.com/) and please subscribe to my newsletter (www.vanceginn.substack.com), share this post, and leave a comment.

​Key Point: Louisiana’s labor market shows improvement on the surface but there are underlying problems because of poor public policies which can be overcome with the Pelican Institute’s “Comeback Agenda.”
​
Louisiana’s Labor Market: Table 1 shows Louisiana’s labor market information over time until the latest data for May 2023 which was released this month by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS report has two surveys which provide different information about the labor market. The payroll survey provides information on nonfarm employment based on responses by established employers for at least two years. The household survey provides responses from households for those who have a job and their demographics, which determines measures like the labor force participation rate and unemployment rate.

​The payroll report shows that Louisiana’s net total nonfarm jobs increased by 4,600 jobs last month (+0.2%) to 1.96 million employed, which is 29,700 jobs below the pre-shutdown level in February 2020. Private sector employment was up by 4,400 jobs (+0.3%) to 1.65 million and government employment increased by 200 jobs (+0.1%) to 317,100 last month. Compared with a year ago, total employment was up by 48,400 jobs (+2.5%), with the private sector adding 41,700 jobs (+2.6%) and the government adding 6,700 jobs (+2.2%). This results in about 85% of all nonfarm jobs being in the productive private sector while 15% is in the government sector, which is the same as the share for the entire U.S.
 
Figure 1 shows the percent changes in changes in employment, average weekly hours, and average weekly earnings by industry over the last year. The industries leading the way in increases in employment are mining and logging, construction, and financial activities while information and other services have the largest declines. Average weekly hours have declined or been flat in all industries with manufacturing, trade, and professional and business services declining the most. Average weekly earnings increased the most in manufacturing and education and health services but declined in most industries with trade and financial activities declining the most. These data show the dichotomy between those in the labor market as there are industries gaining employment but average weekly earnings are falling in most cases and are falling even further when adjusted for inflation, hurting many chances for Louisianans to make ends meet.

​The household survey finds that the working-age population, defined as 16 to 64 years old, declined by another 894 people last month to 3.6 million, down 10,623 people over the last year, and down 34,106 people since February 2020. But the civilian labor force, defined as those who are working or looking for work, rose by 3,377 people to 2.1 million last month, 22,506 people over last year, and 27,910 people since February 2020. These figures result in a labor force participation rate of 59.6%, which is up from 58.8% from last year and up from 58.3% since pre-shutdown but well below the 61.2% rate in June 2009.
 
But the number of employed has been increasing as it was up 2,363 over the last year, contributing to the slightly higher unemployment rate over the last year from 3.5% to 3.5%; but this rate remains lower than the 5.2% rate in February 2020. And a broader look at Louisiana’s labor market shows that Louisianans still face challenges with the continued decline in the working-age population which weighs on the labor-market shortage and long-term economic growth. And comparisons with neighboring states based on several labor market measures indicate concerns.
 
Economic Growth: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently provided the real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) and personal income for Louisiana and other states.
 
Table 2 shows how the U.S. and Louisiana economies performed since 2020. The steep declines were during the shutdowns in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was when the labor market suffered most. The increase in real GDP of +2.2% in Q4:2022 ranked 26th in the country, resulting in an annual decline in economic output by -1.8% in 2022 which was the second worst in the country.

​The BEA also reported that personal income in Louisiana grew at an annualized pace of +6.0% (ranked 32nd) in Q4:2022 (below +7.4% U.S. average). This resulted in personal income growth of 0.0% in 2022, ranking 50th of the states (see Figure 2). 

​The growth rate for 2022 was driven by the negative $10 billion (-4.0-percentage points) in transfer payments from a decline in safety net payments as the expanded child tax credit expired and more people found jobs but increases in net earnings by $8.4 billion (+3.4-percentage points) and other income by $1.6 billion (+0.6-percentage point). Personal income per person in Louisiana increased by 0.08% to $54,622 last year, which ranked 42nd in the country but the increase was far below inflation.
 
Bottom Line: More Louisianans gained jobs in April, but their pay hasn’t been keeping up with inflation in a stagnant economy. While the state improved its tax code in 2021, there was an irresponsible budget passed in 2023 which excessively grew spending, busted spending caps in FY23 and FY 24 and didn’t provide tax relief even with billions in excess tax revenue. Given these results, there is little reason to believe that there will be improvements in the state’s poor business tax climate, net outmigration of Louisianans, or the 19.6% poverty rate which ranks second highest in the country. Which pro-growth policies should be pursued instead? Refer to the Pelican Institute’s “Comeback Agenda” for policy recommendations that would turn the tide and provide opportunities for people to prosper.

​Originally published at Pelican Institute. 

Oren Cass, founder of the think tank American Compass, presents a vision of the “new right” in his recently released book, Rebuilding American Capitalism. In it, he advocates for a top-down approach to governance in response to what he perceives as free-market failures. 

He tends to believe that certain politicians can and should shape markets to achieve desired outcomes rather than letting free markets, which are free people, work. This attempt to rebrand not only the right but capitalism itself is flawed, as history and sound economics prove. 

Cass pinpoints growing concerns in the economy to help bolster his arguments, like poor inflation-adjusted wage growth and lack of strong social and family units. These are problems making it harder for people to prosper, but they are not, as he suggests, evidence that free-market capitalism has failed. 

But these problems–if they are problems, as Scott Winship and Jeremy Horpedahl recently found that people are thriving–aren’t the results of free markets but are driven instead by government failures. 

These failures include bloated government spending, restrictive regulations, high tax burdens, excessive safety net programs, costly tariffs, and other barriers to entry in the marketplace. They are imposed by politicians and government bureaucrats, hindering competition, disrupting entrepreneurial endeavors, impeding wage growth, and destroying human flourishing.

Cass contends that capitalism only works under the right conditions, which must be facilitated by the government to keep the labor market and the economy strong. Rather than what he calls the “Old Right’s market fundamentalism” of fewer regulations and less government intervention being best, he welcomes more government with certain politicians in power. He proudly makes markets the scapegoat and, with it, globalization and financialization.  

In the book’s foreword, Cass writes:

"Globalization must be replaced with a bounded market that restores the mutual dependence of American capital and labor and invites the trade and immigration that benefit American workers. Financialization must be reversed so that both talent and capital in pursuit of profit find their best opportunities in productive investment rather than extraction and speculation."

Believing that more opportunities in the form of globalization inhibit rather than help Americans is the same faulty basis with which people discourage immigration and trade, which are central to thriving economies. 

But the crux of Cass’s theory is that he believes markets must be molded, even referring to work by the father of modern economics Adam Smith. Conveniently, he fails to cite the economist Frederick Hayek, who built on Smith’s ideas, to identify spontaneous order, the basis of free-market capitalism that argues economic growth and prosperity arise from voluntary transactions by free people, not government guidance and control. 

This “new right” idea was debunked long before Cass came along by Hayek (and others), who also highlighted the “knowledge problem” associated with central planning. He argued that no central authority can possess the information necessary to make efficient decisions for an entire economy. The complexity of economic interactions and the constant flux of information require decentralized decision-making and market mechanisms to aggregate and incorporate local knowledge effectively.

Hayek’s insights emphasize the limitations of top-down control and the importance of allowing market forces and individual actors to shape economic outcomes based on their localized knowledge and preferences from the bottom-up. But Cass would have it that government is heralded as the keeper of knowledge and the arbiter of good decisions rather than encouraging freedom and liberty in individuals, i.e., the essence of capitalism.

Capitalism allows individuals to pursue their economic aspirations and make decisions based on their knowledge and preferences through voluntary exchange within rules of the game set by limited government. Through this freedom, innovation, entrepreneurship, and competition thrive, leading to greater prosperity for all.

History is full of successful economic transformations driven by leaders who championed limited government and free markets.

Former President Calvin Coolidge cut government spending, cut taxes, and reduced the national debt, providing more paths for human flourishing. Likewise, former President Ronald Reagan cut taxes, tried to rein in government spending, and reduced regulations, unleashing economic growth and job creation. 

Both of them understood that cutting spending, reducing taxes, and removing excessive regulations create an environment where businesses thrive and workers can benefit. Their approaches embraced the power of individual freedom and self-determination, not top-down control that breeds the opposite.

Oren Cass’s theory of the “new right” and its embrace of government fundamentalism misunderstands the principles of capitalism and human behavior. Top-down approaches, rooted in centralized control and regulation, do not lead to economic prosperity or personal freedom no matter who is in charge but do distort the efficient allocation of resources, undermine the adaptability of markets, and reduce opportunities to let people prosper. 

To achieve a thriving and prosperous economy, we must adhere to and strengthen the principles of free-market capitalism, which too much of our economy today is deprived of when considering healthcare, education, transportation, manufacturing, and the labor market. This should include embracing limited government, voluntary exchange, and individual freedom as the pillars of strong families, productive workers, and profitable employers. 

Economist Milton Friedman noted what this debate is about decades ago. “The problem of social organization is how to set up an arrangement under which greed will do the least harm; capitalism is that kind of a system.” And while “history suggests that capitalism is a necessary condition for political freedom,” it’s clearly “not a sufficient condition.”

But capitalism is the best system yet that has supported economic prosperity and political freedom. The problem is that we have had too little free-market capitalism for people to thrive because of too much government. 

There’s no need for a “new right” of big-government progressive policies offered by Cass and others when free-market capitalism of the “old right” is too often missing in our lives. ​

​Originally published at Econlib. 

Today, I'm honored to be joined by Alex Nowrasteh, Director of Immigration Studies at Cato Institute's Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity.

We discuss:
1) Immigration myths, including "immigrants steal jobs," and why that isn't true;
2) What data reveal about where today's immigrants are coming from, how their life improves upon moving to America, and how America is improved by immigrants, and
3) Need for immigration reform, why one day we'll tear down the Texas border wall, and more.

You can watch this interview on YouTube or listen to it on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Google Podcast, or Anchor. Please share on social media, subscribe to your favorite platform and my newsletter, like it and leave a 5-star rating.

• Alex Nowrasteh is the vice president for economic and social policy studies. His popular publications have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the Washington Post, and most other major publications in the United States. Nowrasteh regularly appears on Fox News, MSNBC, Bloomberg, NPR, and numerous television and radio stations.​
• His peer-reviewed academic publications have appeared in the World Bank Economic Review, the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Public Choice, Kyklos, and others. He has also contributed numerous book chapters to various edited volumes. Nowrasteh is the coauthor (with Benjamin Powell) of the book Wretched Refuse? The Political Economy of Immigration and Institutions (Cambridge University Press, 2020), which is the first book on how economic institutions in receiving countries adjust to immigration.
• He is a native of Southern California and received a BA in economics from George Mason University and an MS in economic history from the London School of Economics.

Find show notes, thoughtful economic insights, media interviews, speeches, blog posts, research, and more at my website and here in my Substack newsletter. Please subscribe to this newsletter, share it with your friends and family, and leave me a comment.

Larry and Glenda Legler think the state should be using much of its nearly $33 billion surplus to give Texans a break on their property taxes.

Larry Legler said, "The state's got an ungodly amount of money that they need to do something with."

But after months of promises to do that, Republican leaders still can't agree on the way to provide relief. "That's what's getting frustrating."

Governor Greg Abbott prefers ending the school maintenance and operations or "M&O" portion of your property taxes over ten years.

That portion alone is about 42% of your property tax bill.

To make that happen, the state would shift sales tax, other state revenues, and surplus money to pay for public schools.

That would allow the state to gradually reduce the rate for M&O property taxes until they're eliminated altogether.

Vance Ginn, a conservative economist and president of Ginn Economic Consulting, has pushed this idea for years. "It's the only way that you can get to $0 school district property taxes is by buying down those rates because that rate can go to zero which zero out of a hundred-dollar valuation for a home is $0. And so that is still $0, and you've eliminated that tax."

But Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and the Texas Senate have a different plan.

While it uses more state revenues and less property taxes to pay for schools, it would also increase homestead exemptions for most homeowners from $40,000 to $100,000.

And for homeowners over 65, it would raise homestead exemptions from $70,000 to $110,000.

Patrick said it would provide nearly double the savings for homeowners than the Governor's plan.

CBS News Texas asked Patrick earlier this week if he doesn't support eliminating the school property tax.

He said, "You can't get there. You only have sales tax to prop up a state of 30 to 35 to 40 million people the next decade. What happens when we have a decline and sales taxes go down? You'll have no money to pay your bills. You can't be a one-legged horse."

Ginn disagreed. "The Comptroller said we're going to have about $27 billion in the rainy-day Fund. The rainy-day fund is there to cover unforeseen revenue shortfalls which would be exactly this sort of situation."

Abbott said 30 business and other groups support his plan.

The Leglers said because they're seniors, they prefer the plan from Patrick and the Senate. "Everything's gone sky high and when people can't get the medications they need, which is not our case, but many people we know, or they can't afford groceries, a loaf of bread at the grocery store, we got a problem."

Both the House and Senate have approved different legislation, and until they pass the same bill, the Governor cannot sign it into law. 

Abbott will speak Friday about this, and other issues related to the regular and special legislative sessions. 

Originally published by CBS Texas.

​Today, I'm honored to be joined by Amity Shlaes, who has written four NYT bestsellers, chairs the board of the Calvin Coolidge Presidential Foundation, is winner of the Manhattan Institute's Hayek Book Prize, and serves as a scholar at the King's College.

We discuss:

1. How Calvin Coolidge blazed a trail of balanced budgets, reduced taxes, and common sense economics;
2. Why the popular idea that Coolidge caused The Great Depression is a misconception, and what truly fueled the disaster and what it means for the economy today; and
3. More valuable lessons to be learned from Coolidge and the great work of The Calvin Coolidge Foundation and its Coolidge Scholarship, which is currently the most competitive college scholarship in the nation.

​
You can watch this interview on YouTube or listen to it on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Google Podcast, or Anchor. Please share on social media, subscribe to your favorite platform and my newsletter, like it and leave a 5-star rating.

​

• Amity Shlaes is the author of four New York Times bestsellers, The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression, The Forgotten Man: Graphic, a full length illustrated version of the same book drawn by Paul Rivoche, and Coolidge, a full-length biography of the thirtieth president, which debuted at number three on the Times list and The Greedy Hand: How Taxes Drive Americas Crazy. National Review called the Forgotten Man “the finest history of the Great Depression ever written.” The Economist wrote of Coolidge that the book “deserves to be widely read” and made it an editor’s choice for 2013.
• Miss Shlaes is also the author of Great Society: A New History, a comprehensive account of the Johnson administration’s most notable legacy. Former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan praised Great Society as an “accurate history that reads like a novel.”
  Miss Shlaes chairs the board of the Calvin Coolidge Presidential Foundation, a national foundation based at the birthplace of President Coolidge. The Foundation’s goal is to share Coolidge with Americans, by hosting debate and events at the Coolidge site and through newer media. She is especially interested in education.
• Miss Shlaes is winner of the Hayek Prize and currently serves on the jury for the prize, sponsored by the Manhattan Institute. She has twice been a finalist for the Loeb Prize in commentary. In 2002 she was co-winner of the Frederic Bastiat Prize, an international prize for writing on political economy, and later chaired the jury for that prize. In 2003, she was JP Morgan Fellow for finance and economy at the American Academy in Berlin. In 2004, she gave the Bradley lecture at the American Enterprise Institute. Her lecture, titled “The Chicken vs the Eagle” looked at the effect of the National Recovery Administration on the entrepreneur in the New Deal. In 2021, Miss Shlaes was awarded the Bradley Prize. Over the years she has served at the Council on Foreign Relations (as senior fellow in economic history) and the George W. Bush Presidential Center, where she was one of four directors, working on its Four Percent Growth Project.
• Many readers know Miss Shlaes from the Wall Street Journal, where she served on the editorial board, writing on foreign policy, taxation and other topics, or from the Financial Times and Bloomberg, each of which carried her syndicated column over the years. Currently Miss Shlaes appears in print Forbes and in National Review. A magna cum laude graduate of Yale College, Miss Shlaes is married to fellow journalist and editor Seth Lipsky. The Lipskys have four children.

Find show notes, thoughtful economic insights, media interviews, speeches, blog posts, research, and more at my website and here in my Substack newsletter. Please subscribe to this newsletter, share it with your friends and family, and leave me a comment.

​Key Point: Texas is a leader in job creation over the last year and since February 2020 (Figure 1 by @SoquelCreek). But Texas will struggle to compete with other states or prosper more as the 88th Legislature passed the largest budget increase in the state’s history, passed the largest corporate welfare increases in the state’s history, passed the largest safety net increases in the state’s history, didn’t pass property tax relief, and didn’t pass school choice. Governor Greg Abbott called a special session to tackle property tax relief and border security with more special sessions likely to come. 

​Overview: Texas has been a leader in the country’s economic recovery since the costly shutdown recession in Spring 2020. This includes reaching a new record high in total nonfarm employment for the 19th straight month. The current 88th Legislature ended the regular session on May 29 with a record surplus but chose to pass the largest spending and welfare increases in the state’s history without passing tax relief or school choice. This was a huge, missed opportunity for Texas that will set up a fiscal cliff with so much spending, less competition with fiscally conservative states, and less opportunity to let people prosper which combined will stop the Lone Star State from being a leader in the country. Fortunately, Governor Abbott called what is likely the first of multiple special sessions to tackle property tax relief (and border security).
 
Labor Market: The best path to let people prosper is free-market capitalism as it is the best system that supports jobs and entrepreneurship for more people to earn a living, gain skills, and build social capital. Table 1 shows Texas’ labor market for April 2023.

​The establishment survey shows net nonfarm jobs in Texas increased by 33,300 last month, resulting in increases for 35 of the last 36 months, to bring record-high employment to 13.8 million. Compared with a year ago, total employment was up by 534,600 (+4.0%)--second fastest growth rate in the country to Nevada (+4.2%)—with the private sector adding 476,800 jobs (+4.2%) and the government adding 57,800 jobs (+2.9%).
 
The household survey shows that the labor force participation rate is higher and employment-population rate is slightly lower than in February 2020, but the former is well below June 2009 at the trough of the Great Recession. The state’s unemployment rate of 4.0% is higher than the U.S. rate of 3.4% but this is weak indicator as it’s highly volatile based on changes in the labor force. There is also continued declining inflation-adjusted average earnings in Texas.
 
Economic Growth: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the real gross domestic product (GDP) by state for 2022. Figure 2 shows Texas had the fifth fastest real GDP growth of +3.4% to $1.9 trillion (above the U.S. average of +2.1% to $20.0 trillion). 

​The BEA also reported that personal income in Texas grew by 5.3% to $1.9 trillion in 2022 which was the third highest in the country. This is behind Idaho (+6.2%) and Colorado (+5.4%) but well above the U.S. growth rate of 2.4% (to $21.8 trillion). Figure 3 shows personal income growth across the country.

​Bottom Line: As Texans struggle from high inflation and high property taxes and an uncertain future with the U.S. economy likely in a deepening recession, they need substantial relief to help make ends meet. Other states are cutting, flattening, and phasing out taxes, passing responsible budgets, and passing school choice, so Texas must make bold reforms to support more opportunities to let people prosper, mitigate the affordability crisis, and withstand destructive policies out of D.C. Figure 4 provides a comparison of the size of government, economic freedom, and economic outcomes among the four largest states and nearby Louisiana. While Texas does relatively well, there is much more to do for more liberty and prosperity. Unfortunately, the Texas Legislature failed to achieve these needed policy objectives in the regular session of 2023 so Governor Greg Abbott is calling them back where the Legislature should spend less, provide more in property tax relief, pass school choice, and reduce or eliminate corporate welfare and expansions of safety net programs.

​Free-Market Solutions: The Texas Legislature should improve the Texas Model by:

• Passing pro-growth policies to:
  • Spend Less: Lower state government spending and pass responsible local spending limit.
  • Tax Less: Start eliminating local property taxes with historic surpluses at the state and local levels.
  • Regulate Less: Improve workforce development, remove barriers to work, reduce occupational licensing, reform safety nets, and enact school choice.
• Strengthening the Texas Model, which recently ranked as the 4th best in economic freedom, will help Texans better resist D.C.’s overreach and flourish more for generations to come.

Today, I cover:
1) National: What's the latest on the debt ceiling deal, why I believe that the U.S. is in a recession based on the latest GDP report, and how inflation continues to indicate more aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed;
2) State-Level Jobs: I break down the latest state-level jobs report and share reasons for optimism and more with a focus on Texas and Louisiana.
3) Texas: What's going on with the current Texas legislative session, and why the proposed budget increase would be the largest spending increase in TX history while not passing the largest property tax relief in history. Plus, massive increases in corporate welfare, and large increases in social safety net spending, which would result in a disaster for Texans and the Texas economy.

​You can watch this episode and others along with my Let People Prosper Show on YouTube or listen to it on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Google Podcast, or Anchor (please share, subscribe, like, and leave a 5-star rating!).
​
For show notes, thoughtful insights, media interviews, speeches, blog posts, research, and more, check out my website (https://www.vanceginn.com/) and please subscribe to my newsletter on Substack, share this post, and leave a comment.

​Today, I'm honored to be joined by economist and trusted public policy adviser Paul Winfree, who has served in top management and policy roles in the White House, U.S. Senate, and think tanks.
We discuss:

1. Lessons learned from his experience working in the White House during the Trump administration;
   
2. Tax, spending, and economic policies that need reform; and
   
3. Current economic concerns, including inflation, job growth, and government spending and the best path forward for a prosperous economy.
   

You can watch this interview on YouTube or listen to it on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Google Podcast, or Anchor. Please share on social media, subscribe to your favorite platform and my newsletter, like it and leave a 5-star rating.

Paul Winfree is an economist and a trusted public policy advisor. He has served in top management and policy roles in the White House, the US Senate, and in think tanks.​

• He was a Distinguished Fellow in Economic Policy and Public Leadership at The Heritage Foundation. He is setting up a new organization that will focus on economic policy that will launch very soon.
• Winfree’s research focuses on US economic history, public finance, the political economy, the economics of media, and the economics of education. He is author of a book on the evolution of economic and fiscal policy from colonial America until the present called The History (and Future) of the Budget Process in the United States: Budget by Fire (Palgrave Macmillan, 2019).
• Before rejoining Heritage in 2018, Winfree was Deputy Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy, the Deputy Director of the Domestic Policy Council, and the Director of Budget Policy, all at the White House. During the 2016 Presidential Transition, Winfree led the team responsible for the Office of Management and Budget.
• Winfree holds a M.Sc. in economics and economic history from the London School of Economics and Political Science and a B.S. in economics from George Mason University. He will soon finish his Ph.D. in economics at Queen’s University in Belfast. 

Find show notes, thoughtful economic insights, media interviews, speeches, blog posts, research, and more at my website and in my Substack newsletter. Please subscribe to this newsletter, share it with your friends and family, and leave me a comment.

Don't miss the 9th episode of "This Week's Economy,” where I briefly share insights every Friday on key economic and policy news across the country.

​Today I cover:
1) National: Breaking down the latest debt ceiling bill and the importance of restraining government spending for helping the economy to bounce back;
2) States: How states are setting an example of better spending habits with responsible budgeting and taxation in states like Florida and Iowa; and
3) Recession: Why I believe next year's data will show that we are in a recession that is set to deepen due to ongoing stagflation, and more.

​You can watch this episode and others along with my Let People Prosper Show on YouTube or listen to it on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Google Podcast, or Anchor (please share, subscribe, like, and leave a 5-star rating!).

For show notes, thoughtful insights, media interviews, speeches, blog posts, research, and more, check out my website (https://www.vanceginn.com/) and please subscribe to my newsletter on Substack (​vanceginn.substack.com/).

According to a recent CNBC survey, pessimism regarding the American economy is at an all-time high, with 69% of the public having a negative view.  The leading reason is inflation in a weak economy. The latest report this week shows that inflation remains persistently high at near 5%, eroding slower-growing average weekly earnings year-over-year for 25 straight months.

The Federal Reserve recently raised its federal funds rate target for the 10th meeting in a row to 5.25%–the highest since August 2007. While these rate hikes were anticipated in light of ongoing inflation, they could have been avoided. But excessive government spending and money printing during the “boom” led to this government-failure bust, the effects of which we’ll feel for months and even years to come.
​
The sluggish economic growth has been rough on Americans, but inflation has been a killer. The survey also noted, “Just 5% say their household income is growing faster than inflation, 26% say it’s keeping pace, and 67% report they are falling behind.” This is devastating lower-income households’ standard of living. 

The trend of declining real wages is particularly harmful to low-income Americans. But even the wealthy feel the effects, as more than half of higher-income Americans surveyed report spending less on eating out and entertainment. This has contributed to the anemic annualized economic growth of just 1.1% in the first quarter of 2023 after rising by only 0.9% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022. 

As prices increase, businesses spend more on production, making it more difficult to raise workers’ wages while remaining profitable. Employees who can’t be paid enough to fund costly goods like childcare and groceries, which have risen by 7.1% over the last year, spend less on other things or fall behind on their bills. Businesses earning less revenue will invest less, and so goes the vicious downward cycle. 

Another hit on Americans has been the cost of shelter, which was up 8.1% over the last year even as there are signs that housing prices are cooling across the country. Still, housing prices have been “eclipsing the inflation rate by 150% since 1970.” This means many Americans can’t afford to own a home, and that’s getting further out of reach as mortgage rates have soared. 

What’s to be done about inflation threatening Americans’ livelihoods? Legendary economist Milton Friedman had some advice about addressing sky-rocketing inflation that is valuable today. 

There is one and only one basic cause of inflation: too high a rate of growth in the quantity of money—too much money chasing the available supply of goods and services,” he argues. “These days, that cause is produced in Washington, proximately, by the Federal Reserve System, which determines what happens to the quantity of money; ultimately, by the political and other pressures impinging on the System, of which the most important are the pressures to create money in order to pay for exploding Federal spending and in order to promote the goal of ‘full employment.’

Despite raising its target interest rate to fight inflation, the Fed has a bloated balance sheet of nearly $9 trillion, which is too high for disinflation to its target of an average 2% rate. When the Fed engages in excessive money printing compared with the supply of goods and services, inflation is the result, as Friedman described. 

While it was appropriate for the Fed to raise its target rate, the ongoing increase to its balance sheet is just continuing to distort productive economic activity. And Congress must restrain spending. The national debt is nearly $31.5 trillion, with net interest payments on the debt set to exceed $1 trillion soon. 

The government must borrow to finance the deficit when it spends more than it makes, driving up interest rates. Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing for businesses, leading to lower investment, which reduces the supply of goods and services. Add in the Fed buying the debt that increases the money supply with less supply of goods and services, resulting in more inflation. 

House Republicans passed a debt ceiling bill that would return spending to 2022 levels and limit spending to just 1% growth over the next decade while eliminating other bad policies. Negotiations between the two parties continue, while a June 1 deadline looms. If they don’t reach agreement, it will make the debt issue an ongoing concern as defaulting on the debt nears, further raising interest rates that weaken the economy. 

This means we can expect a deeper, longer recession. The Fed and Congress have a duty to stop flawed policies of excessive printing and spending, respectively. High inflation harms Americans, and the Fed and Congress must address this. If they don’t take action soon to address these government failures, the erosion of the American dream will continue.

The future of America depends on sound, pro-growth, pro-liberty policies instead that will let people prosper.

Originally published at Econlib.