Originally published on Substack. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics just dropped a bombshell: the U.S. economy isn’t nearly as strong as Washington claimed. Its annual benchmark revision erased 911,000 jobs from March 2024 to March 2025—a 0.6% drop in employment, one of the steepest downward corrections in decades. That means nearly a million jobs we thought existed never did.

Add to that the August jobs report, which showed payrolls barely budged (+22,000) and the unemployment rate up to 4.3%—its highest since 2021. The household survey showed 7.4 million unemployed, with long-term joblessness up 385,000 over the past year, now making up more than 25% of all unemployed. Labor force participation slipped to 62.3%, and the employment-to-population ratio dropped to 59.6%. This is not a strong labor market. It’s stagnation.

So what did Washington call the “bright spot”? Healthcare jobs. But before we cheer, let’s look closer.

​The Wrong Kind of Growth

In Augus, healthcare added 31,000 jobs, while social assistance added another 16,000. Without those gains, the jobs report would have been net negative. But most of these new roles weren’t doctors or nurses—they were administrators, billing clerks, and compliance staff.

Between 1970 and 2020, the number of practicing physicians . Today, of the 23.5 million people working in healthcare, fewer than one-third provide direct care.

This is what Washington cheers: growth in bureaucracy funded by forced tax dollars, while patients wait longer for care.

Bureaucracy First, Patients Last

Here’s the perverse incentive: government regulations create new administrative requirements, so hospitals hire more staff to handle paperwork. Those salaries are paid first out of taxpayer-funded budgets and insurance dollars. Doctors and nurses are left fighting for what’s left.

The Affordable Care Act was the clearest example. To fund it, Washington diverted $716 billion from Medicare into bureaucracy. That $1.76 trillion law coincided with doctor wait times jumping 25%—from 99 days to 132. More dollars went to administrators, not care. The result was predictable: longer waits and tragic “death by queue”, as patients died waiting for treatments that never came.

Even when Washington warns that Medicaid cuts “pose a threat to health services”, it ignores that bureaucracy is untouchable. Cuts fall on provider reimbursements, not on administrative overhead. The doctor gets squeezed while the paperwork department grows.

The Fed Factor

With job growth flat and unemployment rising, some in Washington are pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to “stimulate” the economy. But inflation is still running hot: Core CPI inflation rose 3.1% over the year in August. If the Fed caves, it risks reigniting price surges while doing nothing to create more productive work.

As I’ve been saying for months, we don’t fix a weak labor market by printing more money. We fix it by restraining government spending, ending distortive policies like tariffs, and freeing entrepreneurs and workers to create value.

A Better Prescription for Prosperity

Instead of applauding bureaucratic job growth, Washington should:

1. Cut bureaucracy first. Stop funding administrators ahead of patient care. Taxpayers shouldn’t pay for jobs that add red tape instead of healing.
2. Free up providers. Scrap outdated scope-of-practice and certificate-of-need laws so more medical professionals can serve patients.
3. Empower families. Put healthcare dollars directly in personalized patient accounts. Competition lowers costs and improves quality in every other sector—why not in healthcare?

Closing Thought

The August jobs report isn’t a win for working Americans. It’s a warning: the economy is sputtering, unemployment is the highest since 2021, and nearly a million jobs were just erased from the record books. The only “growth” Washington celebrates is more tax-funded bureaucracy in healthcare, which means higher costs and longer waits for patients.
​
Prosperity doesn’t come from Washington’s accounting tricks or the Fed’s printing press. It comes from freedom: lower spending, fewer bureaucrats, more providers, and empowered patients. That’s the kind of growth worth celebrating.

Originally published on Substack. 

The first jobs report since President Trump dismissed the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in weaker than expected. The U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs in August — far below the forecast of 76,500 — while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, the highest since October 2021.

The details show a labor market that has been slowing for more than a year, even before Trump returned to office, and now faces new pressures from harmful tariffs, regulatory overhang, and policy uncertainty.
​
The numbers themselves should dispel any illusion of a booming jobs market. This isn’t strength. It’s stagnation — and without a course correction, it could become stagflation.

​The Bureau of Labor Statistics report shows the cracks beneath the surface. Job revisions cut earlier months lower, reinforcing the reality that employment growth has been weakening for over a year. The August headline number — +22,000 jobs — barely moves the needle. Unemployment ticked up to 4.3 percent, and the number of long-term unemployed rose to nearly 2 million, now more than a quarter of the total unemployed.

Labor force participation remains stuck at 62.3 percent, down 0.4 percentage points over the past year. The employment-population ratio has also slipped, underscoring how fewer Americans are working relative to the overall population. More people are discouraged, working part-time involuntarily, or outside the labor force altogether.

Wages, meanwhile, show a mixed picture. Average weekly earnings rose 3.4 percent over the past year, running slightly ahead of core inflation at 3.1 percent. That’s a small win for workers, but hardly a victory. After years of paychecks being eaten by inflation, this is more of a pause than a rebound.
​
The deeper issue is policy.

​Trump’s new tariffs and trade protectionism are already adding uncertainty to business investment, especially in manufacturing. Tariffs are simply taxes on Americans — they raise costs, reduce consumer choice, and make it harder for businesses to hire and grow. This is why the recent court decision striking down unilateral executive tariffs was so important. Trade policy belongs to Congress, not the executive, and if the Supreme Court upholds this decision, it will rein in one of the most harmful tools of economic populism.

On top of this, the benefits of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) haven’t yet been felt. The bill’s pro-growth reforms are still being phased in, while the economy continues to carry the weight of Biden’s regulatory overreach. The result is policy whiplash: Biden’s red tape combined with Trump’s tariffs creates an environment of uncertainty that discourages investment and hiring. Businesses don’t expand when they can’t see the rules of the game.

Then there’s the Federal Reserve. Some will argue this weak jobs report means the Fed should cut interest rates to “stimulate” the economy. That would be a grave mistake. The Fed’s mandate is price stability, and with core PCE inflation still running at 3.1 percent, well above the 2 percent target, loosening monetary policy now would only reignite inflation. More money chasing fewer goods, while job growth is flat, is the classic recipe for stagflation. We lived through that in the 1970s, and the lessons should not be forgotten.

​What we need is a return to pro-growth fundamentals. That means:

• Spending restraint in Washington, so fiscal policy doesn’t keep adding fuel to inflation.
• Free trade, not tariffs, so consumers and businesses benefit from lower costs and expanded opportunities.
• Regulatory reform, to clear out the rules that make it harder for businesses to expand and hire.
• Stable money, with the Fed focusing on bringing inflation down rather than chasing job numbers it can’t fix.

As someone living near Austin, Texas, I observe how these national policies impact the local economy. High housing costs, rising food prices, and job uncertainty squeeze families. Businesses struggle with trade disruptions and regulatory burdens. Texas remains an attractive destination for people leaving California and other high-cost states, but even here, bad federal policy makes prosperity harder.

The August jobs report is more than a monthly data point. It’s a worrisome trend. The U.S. labor market is weakening, and misguided policies are exacerbating the situation. If Washington continues down this road — tariffs, overspending, and monetary missteps — we risk slipping into stagflation.

The better path is clear. Empower markets, not government. Cut spending, end protectionism, and focus monetary policy on stable prices. That’s how we restore sustainable job growth and real wage gains. Anything else is just rearranging the deck chairs while the ship slows down.

Conclusion

The August jobs report confirms the trend: the labor market has been weakening for months, and now the slowdown is plain in the data. Tariffs and protectionism are adding to the drag, regulatory burdens remain heavy, and the Fed risks fueling inflation if it cuts too soon.

America doesn’t need more government intervention. It requires pro-growth reforms that trust people and markets. Only then can we move beyond stagnation toward genuine prosperity.

Originally published on Substack. 

Trump’s economy isn’t booming—and the data show it. The July jobs report delivered just +73,000 net jobs, with +83,000 in the private sector and a loss of -10,000 government jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and—once again—the previous two months were revised lower by a large -258,000.

So, President Trump fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

But here’s the truth: this wasn’t a reform. It was a reaction. A political one.

And if Trump continues down this path—firing messengers and pushing heavy-handed executive orders—he’ll undermine the best parts of his One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), and drag the country further into the same central-planning mindset we fought so hard to escape.

The Jobs Data Are Flawed—Because Government Broke the Economy

It’s true that BLS data are messy right now. That’s because COVID-19—and the federal shutdowns Trump ordered in 2020—blew up seasonal patterns, disrupted labor flows, and warped the statistical baselines the BLS uses to estimate job growth. Those distortions still affect monthly estimates.

So yes, the data are flawed—but that’s not necessarily the BLS’s fault. And importantly, the BLS has always revised its initial estimates as better data become available.

The real misunderstanding here is confusing the size of those revisions with their meaning. Yes, revised numbers are larger but that’s because employment is larger.

What matters is how accurate the first estimate is as a percent of total employment. And as this chart shows, those percent revisions have declined since at least 1965:

In other words, the BLS has gotten better at estimating job growth—not worse—over time. Firing the BLS commissioner won’t stop revisions but it might make jobs reports more political, causing more uncertainty in an already stressed economy.

The Debanking Order: More Control, Less Competition

Unfortunately, Trump’s big-government instinct didn’t stop with the BLS. His team is preparing a sweeping executive order targeting banks accused of “debanking” conservatives.

Operation Choke Point 1.0 under Obama supposedly had regulators weaponize the financial system to blacklist politically disfavored industries. And Operation Choke Point 2.0 under Biden arguably did similar things. Who knows how often debanking happened if at all under other presidents. But the problem is the regulators—not the banks.

Banks want more customers. They make profits by serving people, not excluding them. If they start politicizing access to capital, they’ll lose business to competitors.

The solution isn’t more federal mandates—it’s more competition.

If Trump wants to fix the banking issues, he should repeal Dodd-Frank, reduce compliance burdens, and let new financial firms enter the market. More banks, more innovation, and more choice will fix this faster than any executive order ever could.

Even OBBB Can’t Outrun Bad Policy

Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill got a few things right: it made TCJA permanent, secured full expensing, and improved work requirements for Medicaid.

​But it also included too much spending, temporary flawed tax carveouts, and failed to simplify the tax code. That makes the short term and long-term growth impacts questionable. And when paired with protectionism, price controls, and executive overreach—it’s not hard to see why the private economy is stalling.

You can’t deregulate one sector while micromanaging another. You can’t claim to unleash growth while clamping down on market signals.

And you can’t fire your way out of bad data.

A Better Way Forward:

• Privatize economic reporting. Let ADP, Indeed, Homebase, and others compete with or without BLS.
• End the trade war. Tariffs are taxes—and they’re hurting American families and businesses.
• Restore trust in institutions by shrinking them. Eliminate the Department of Labor. It’s not needed. Let the market do the job.
• Unleash competition in banking. Don’t regulate more—deregulate and let choice flourish.
• Cut government spending and cap any growth to the rate of population growth plus inflation. No more blank checks.

Conclusion

Trump’s frustration is real—and justified. But the path forward isn’t more control. It’s more freedom. The economy won’t recover through firings and executive mandates. It will recover when we trust people over politicians, markets over mandates, and competition over coercion.

Let the market work. Let the numbers speak. Let freedom ring. Let people prosper!

Originally published on Substack. 

Despite what the headlines say, the labor market has been weakening. And the private economy is taking the hit—just as I warned last month and the weak Q2 GDP report.

📉 The Jobs Report, Unpacked

The economy added just +73,000 net jobs in July, far below some expectations. But even that weak number is inflated.

• May and June were revised down by -258,000, wiping out nearly everything that was previously reported because of downward revisions (Reuters).
• Private-sector job growth was +83,000, while government jobs fell by 10,000, including –12,000 federal jobs last month.
• Manufacturing lost 11,000 jobs, a major red flag for those who claim tariffs will bring back jobs.
• Job gains came mostly from taxpayer-funded, government-directed healthcare (+55,000) and social assistance (+18,000)—hardly signs of broad, market-driven improvement.

​Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, which it has been at or above 4% since May 2024. The labor force participation rate stayed flat at 62.2%, but down 0.5 percentage points from a year ago. The employment-population ratio is down to 59.6%. And the number of long-term unemployed surged by 179,000 to 1.8 million.

This is not a strong labor market. It’s a sluggish one propped up by government-adjacent employment and frozen employment elsewhere.

💵 Wages Are Up—But That Won’t Last

Average weekly earnings rose 4.1% year-over-year, outpacing inflation. But it’s not because productivity is booming. It’s driven by labor shortages and cost pressures. And the margin is shrinking.

• Core CPI is running around 2.9%, and headline CPI is 2.7%.
• Energy and food prices are creeping back up.
• The Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility is slipping again.

Stagflation is stagnant growth and rising inflation, much like we saw during the Biden years and especially during the 1970s. The labor market is a lagging indicator in the economy so if we are already seeing a substantial slowdown in jobs then the worst is yet to come. And inflation appears to be rearing its ugly head again. Could this be another decade of Great Inflation like 50 years ago when Washington was lost with bad policy? Let’s hope not!

🏦 The Fed Is Feeding the Problem

The Federal Reserve’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet is still distorting interest rates across the economy. It’s keeping long-term rates artificially low while manipulating risk pricing and shielding Congress from the fiscal consequences of overspending.

This is not neutral monetary policy. It’s market manipulation.

And it’s creating perverse incentives: too much debt, not enough investment. The Fed hasn’t committed to a rules-based policy framework, and until it does, we’ll keep facing boom-bust cycles enabled by political pressure and economic mismanagement. This doesn’t mean Chair Powell should go. But it does mean that his leadership at the Fed is highly questionable given the terrible monetary policy of expansionary base money to distort and inflate the economy resulting in much of the stagflation we’re in today and was exacerbated by Trump’s trade protectionism along with overspending on the Eccles Building renovations and hundreds of billions of dollars in operating losses.

📦 The Trade War Is Back—And Still Failing

Let’s be clear: Trump’s tariff-first approach is creating more harm than good.

As I outlined in my recent post on GDP distortion, Q1 saw a surge in imports as firms rushed to beat tariff hikes. Q2 saw those inventories collapse. Now? Hiring has stalled. Investment is slowing. The only thing rising is economic uncertainty.

• Manufacturing lost 11,000 jobs in July
• The trade deficit remains historically high
• Consumer prices are still elevated, even with falling imports

Tariffs are a hidden tax on Americans. They raise costs. They shrink opportunity. They don’t fix trade imbalances. And those who pushed them have been wrong—consistently.

✅ What Should Be Done

I’ve been calling for a better way since long before these numbers hit:

1. End the trade war. Tariffs are not a growth strategy—they’re a tax.
2. Reclaim trade authority in Congress. We need predictability, not executive volatility.
3. Cut government spending. Overspending is lighter fluid to inflation
4. Simplify, flatten, and cut taxes.
5. Deregulate labor, energy, and capital markets. Let markets allocate.
6. Anchor the Fed to rules-based policy until ending it. No more balance sheet games.

The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) was importance to make much of the 2017 TCJA permanent and had some pro-growth elements—like full expensing, but was largely diluted by crony carveouts and delayed spending restraint. If President Trump is serious about restoring prosperity, now’s the time to change course and adopt real free-market reforms.

Conclusion

The July jobs report confirms what I’ve warned for months: this isn’t a “Golden Age” recovery. It’s policy-driven stagnation. The private sector is flat. Inflation is creeping back. And government is doing what it always does—getting in the way.

If we want prosperity, we need to get Washington out of the way and let people create, build, trade, and flourish. That means rejecting tariffs, restoring fiscal sanity, ending monetary manipulation, and trusting people in markets.

Let people prosper!