​The U.S. labor market rebounded in November as the economy added 227,000 new jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly report. The economy recovered from the labor strife and economic fallout from two devastating hurricanes, though some of the indicators within the jobs report are mixed. NTD spoke with Vance Ginn, president of Ginn Economic Consulting and the former chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget from 2019–2020 during the previous Trump administration, on December 6, 2024: https://www.ntd.com/former-white-house-economist-skeptical-jobs-news-is-all-positive_1033130.html.

Originally published at Pelican Institute.

​With its rich cultural heritage and strategic location along the Gulf of Mexico, Louisiana boasts significant economic potential. However, recent data underscores the need for the state to tap into this potential and enhance its economic growth, especially in comparison to its neighboring states.

As of September 2024, Louisiana’s unemployment rate is 3.9%, a slight increase from the previous year but below the national average of 4.1%. Over the past twelve months, Louisiana added 2,000 jobs, a 0.1% increase in nonfarm employment. This growth is positive but well below the 1.3% national rate and significantly lower than regional competitors like Texas (2.3%) and Florida (2.1%), where job growth has been much stronger.

It’s imperative for Louisiana to keep pace with its neighboring states. By urgently implementing bold pro-growth policies, such as lowering taxes, reducing regulations, and improving workforce development, the state can create an environment that attracts businesses, generates jobs, and enhances overall economic prosperity.

Comparing Louisiana with Neighboring States
The contrast between Louisiana and its neighboring states is stark. Texas continues to lead the pack, with 327,400 new jobs added over the past year. Meanwhile, Florida has also experienced strong economic growth, with its unemployment rate declining to 2.8%, among the lowest in the region. While still facing economic challenges, Mississippi has recently seen a boost in job creation through pro-business reforms, resulting in an unemployment rate of 3.3%.

Louisiana’s relatively slower job growth and higher unemployment rate prove the urgent need for reform. The state’s heavy reliance on the oil and gas sector, while a source of strength in the past, has created economic volatility. Diversification into industries such as manufacturing, technology, and tourism, coupled with meaningful policy reforms, is not just important but crucial for Louisiana to remain competitive in the region.

Pro-Growth Policy Recommendations for Louisiana
To unlock its economic potential, Louisiana should consider implementing several key reforms that have proven successful in other states:

1. Tax Reform: One of the most pressing challenges for Louisiana is its high tax burden. The state’s complex tax system and reliance on income taxes discourage business investment and slow job creation. Louisiana can follow the example of Texas, which has no state income tax and a relatively low corporate tax rate, making it one of the most attractive states for business. Louisiana should reduce its income taxes, simplify its tax code, and shift to a more consumption-based system that encourages investment and entrepreneurship.
2. Regulatory Relief: Excessive regulations have hampered Louisiana’s ability to attract new businesses and allow existing ones to expand. Streamlining regulations and reducing red tape can help foster a more business-friendly environment. Texas and Florida have prioritized regulatory reform, contributing to their impressive economic growth. Louisiana could benefit from a comprehensive review of its regulatory framework, particularly in sectors like energy, manufacturing, and small businesses.
3. Workforce Development: Many companies report that a shortage of qualified workers hinders growth and there should be better integration of workforce and social services for those in poverty. To address this, Louisiana should pursue the highly successful “One Door” approach used by Utah to integrate workforce and social services programing. The state should also continue prioritizing workforce training and education programs that align with the needs of regional industries and offer upwardly mobile careers.
4.    Spending Restraint: Louisiana’s government spending has grown rapidly over the years, leading to an over-reliance on government programs and interventions. Implementing spending caps tied to population growth and inflation, as Colorado and Texas have done and other states are considering, would help ensure that Louisiana’s budget remains responsible.

By controlling spending and reducing the size of government, Louisiana can create a more predictable business environment, which is crucial for attracting long-term investment.

Moving Louisiana Forward
Louisiana’s economy has shown signs of recovery, but much more work must be done. By embracing pro-growth policies focused on reducing taxes, streamlining regulations, and integrating workforce and social services while prioritizing high-demand, high-value career opportunities, Louisiana can revitalize its economy and compete more effectively with its neighbors. The state’s natural resources, cultural vibrancy, and strategic location give it a strong foundation to build, but success will require bold leadership and a commitment to reform.

Originally published at Kansas Policy Institute.

​​Kansas has long been a critical player in the Heartland, but its recent job performance reveals progress and potential pitfalls. 

As of September 2024, Kansas’ unemployment rate sits at 3.3%, up from 2.6% the prior year, signaling a tightening labor market despite steady job growth. Over the last twelve months, Kansas added around 19,000 jobs, reflecting a 1.3% increase in nonfarm employment. 
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While this growth is commendable, it lags behind the national average of 1.6% and the state’s regional peers, such as Missouri (2.9%) and Nebraska (2.2%).

Kansas is at a crossroads. 

Although its policies have produced moderate gains, the state must embrace more aggressive, pro-growth reforms to remain competitive. By examining neighboring states and successful models like Texas and others, Kansas can chart a path toward stronger economic growth, job creation, and greater prosperity.

How Kansas Compares
Compared to its neighbors, Kansas’ job creation numbers show mixed results. 

Missouri, for instance, has been more aggressive in attracting business investment, contributing to a lower unemployment rate and faster job growth. Nebraska’s low unemployment and focus on maintaining a favorable tax climate have made it a regional standout.

Kansas’ employment growth rate of 1.3% over the past year is notably slower than Texas’s, which added 327,400 jobs (a 2.3% increase) over the same period, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. While the one percentage point difference in annual job growth between the two states may not seem like a lot, each percent matters when considering how long it takes employment to double. The rule of 72 calculates how long a percent will double by taking 72 divided by that percent. So, the 2.3% in Texas would double employment every 31 years, while the 1.3% in Kansas would take 55 years to double. 

While the unemployment rate is lower in Kansas than in Texas, the labor force participation rate–the share of people working or looking for work–has been declining in Kansas while increasing in Texas in recent months. When people leave the labor force, this can artificially reduce the unemployment rate as fewer people are working or looking for work and likely end up on safety net programs, reducing economic output.

This comparison highlights Kansas’s room to grow, particularly given its rising unemployment rate over the last several months.

Pro-Growth Policies for Kansas
To ignite its economic potential, Kansas should prioritize a suite of pro-growth policies aimed at boosting private sector investment, reducing the tax burden, and unleashing the full potential of its workforce. Here are a few strategies Kansas could adopt:

• Lowering Taxes: One of the main factors driving businesses to states like Texas is their low-tax environment. Kansas should reduce income and corporate taxes to make it more attractive for businesses and skilled workers. A comprehensive tax overhaul that shifts away from taxing income and toward more consumption-based taxes would align Kansas with the most competitive states in the nation. The tax changes from the 2024 Special Session of the legislature should be viewed as a starting point, not the end game. Those changes allowed Kansas to keep treading water and not make true progress.
• Deregulation: Excessive regulations stifle entrepreneurship and limit business expansion. Kansas can create a more business-friendly environment by cutting red tape and streamlining licensing processes. Texas has long prioritized regulatory reform, contributing to its economic success. Kansas could follow suit by reviewing and removing outdated or overly burdensome regulations, especially in the manufacturing and technology sectors.
• Universal School Choice: Expanding access to high-quality education through universal school choice would be one of the best long-term investments in Kansas’ future. As seen in other states, providing parents with the freedom to choose the best educational environment for their children fosters competition and improves outcomes across the board. This could help Kansas build a more dynamic workforce, ensuring students are better prepared for high-paying jobs.
• Spending Restraint: Kansas must keep its budget in check to avoid over-reliance on government intervention in the economy. By implementing spending caps tied to population growth and inflation, Kansas can ensure that the government lives within its means, reducing the need for future tax increases and creating a better business climate.
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Looking Forward
Kansas has all the tools to succeed: a strong agricultural base, a growing manufacturing sector, and a skilled workforce. However, without significant policy changes, it risks falling behind its neighbors and losing out on potential economic gains. By focusing on tax cuts, deregulation, education reform, and responsible government spending, Kansas can attract more businesses, create jobs, and set itself on a course for long-term prosperity.

Originally published at Texans for Fiscal Responsibility.

Big Government Is Holding America Back
America’s federal debt has now skyrocketed past $35 trillion—an increase of $2.3 trillion in just the last fiscal year. Inflation persists, with core prices rising 3.3% over the past year. Meanwhile, government jobs are growing faster than private sector employment, which is draining the economy. 

The warning signs are everywhere: big government stifles growth, and the solution is less intervention, not more.

Debt, Deficit, and Sluggish Growth: The Hidden Costs of Overspending
​The U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path. A $2.3 trillion deficit and a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 125% are squeezing private investment essential for real, long-term economic growth. Instead, Keynesian-style interventions aimed at boosting demand through government spending have ballooned the national debt and undermined productivity.

Historically, government spending programs have delivered questionable short-term benefits but have left long-term economic consequences. The more the government grows, the more it crowds out the private sector’s ability to innovate and create high-quality jobs. This economic distortion is only deepening as Washington pours more money into inefficient programs while ignoring the importance of fiscal responsibility.

Inflation: The Persistent Threat to Household Budgets
September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 2.4% overall increase, with core inflation excluding food and energy at 3.3%. While inflation has cooled from its 2022 peak, these numbers are still too high. American households feel the squeeze as the cost of essentials like shelter and services continues to rise, undermining real wage growth. Average weekly earnings adjusted for inflation have been down 3.4% since Biden-Harris took office in January 2021. It is no wonder that nearly 60% of Americans believe we are in a recession.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary excess continues to cause inflation. Between 2020 and 2021, the money supply expanded by over 40%, sparking inflation. The federal government’s continued spending spree makes it difficult for the Fed to drain its bloated $7 trillion balance sheet, so inflation will be around much longer than otherwise. This is because the Fed chooses to not let interest rates rise to fund the increased national debt, so it prints more money and disrupts economic activity, contributing to the fragile economy we have today.

Labor Market Distortion: Government Outpacing the Private Sector
On the surface, the U.S. labor market appears strong. The economy added 254,000 jobs in September, with private-sector employment increasing by 223,000. However, government jobs grew by 31,000, continuing a troubling trend that has persisted since April 2023. Government employment has been rising faster than private-sector jobs, shifting the labor market toward less productive sectors. This growth of government payrolls is not just unsustainable—it’s a drag on economic dynamism.

Private sector jobs are the engine of innovation and prosperity, but when the government grows at the expense of the private sector, it hampers job quality and wage growth. Real average hourly earnings remain below pre-pandemic levels, leaving workers with less purchasing power despite more jobs. Expanding government employment also means higher costs for taxpayers and more resources diverted from productive economic activity.

Texas: A Model of Free-Market Success
Texas exemplifies how free-market policies can lead to robust economic growth. The state’s low taxes, minimal regulation, and pro-business environment have consistently helped it outperform national job creation and economic growth averages. However, even Texas is not immune to the negative impacts of federal policy and its big-government, Keynesian creep. The crowding-out effect of federal debt growth and regulatory burdens imposed by Washington are raising costs for businesses and consumers alike.

To maintain its competitive edge, Texas must continue pushing for property tax elimination and spending limits at the state and local levels with a maximum of population growth plus inflation, but with excessive spending in recent years, there’s more evidence to at least freeze these budgets if not cut them by 10% or more. Phasing out school district M&O property taxes by state surpluses is essential for sustainable fiscal management and long-term growth. By keeping the government in check, Texas can remain a national leader in economic freedom.

Free-Market Capitalism: The Path Forward
The solution to America’s economic woes is clear: embrace free-market capitalism and reduce the size of government. Policymakers should focus on:

1. Cutting Government Spending: Reducing spending will help control inflation, lower deficits, and allow the private sector to flourish. 
2. Reforming Taxes: Cutting taxes on individuals and businesses will increase disposable income, encourage investment, and support more job creation.
3. Deregulating the Economy: Removing burdensome regulations will reduce business costs, spur innovation, and create high-paying jobs.
4. Ending Monetary Excesses: A disciplined approach to monetary policy is essential to restoring confidence in the dollar and curbing inflation.

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Milton Friedman once said, “The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate voluntarily is through the free market.” This wisdom remains true today. America’s best chance for renewed prosperity is shifting from big-government Keynesianism toward free-market capitalism with strict fiscal and monetary rules and massive deregulation.

​In episode 81 of This Week's Economy, I discuss the Federal Reserve's looming decision on interest rates, the shifting dynamics in the U.S. labor market, California Governor Newsom's veto on AI regulation, and more!

Visit my website ⁠www.vanceginn.com⁠ for more information, and get show notes at ⁠www.vanceginn.substack.com⁠.