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America’s welfare system is deeply fragmented, costly, and often counterproductive—making it harder, not easier, for people to move forward.
I recently joined an online debate on welfare reform framed as a choice between stronger work requirements or structural changes like “One Door” to Work. But that’s the wrong question. The real question is this: how do we reduce dependency, waste fewer taxpayer dollars, and help more people move into work and self-sufficiency? Work requirements matter, but they are not enough on their own. In This Week’s Economy, I explain why real reform requires both: strengthening pro-work incentives and fixing the underlying system that delivers these programs. When policy aligns with how people respond to incentives, we can shift from managing dependency to helping people truly prosper. You can also get the full episode on YouTube, Apple Podcast, or Spotify, and find more information about my work at Ginn Economic Consulting.
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 Originally published on Substack. Prices Hit Home The latest Consumer Price Index report should end the fantasy that inflation is gone. March CPI jumped 0.9 percent in a single month, and the 12-month headline rate rose to 3.3 percent. Core CPI increased 0.2 percent in March and 2.6 percent over the past year. Even by the cleaner measure, inflation is still running above where price stability should be. The Federal Reserve’s long-run inflation target is 2 percent, measured by PCE, not CPI, but the point remains the same: prices are still rising too fast, and families know it.  That matters because families do not live in the “core.” They live in the real world, where gasoline, electricity, rent, groceries, and borrowing costs all hit at once. March’s inflation story was ugly. The energy index surged 10.9 percent in one month, gasoline jumped 21.2 percent, shelter rose another 0.3 percent, and food away from home is up 3.8 percent over the past year. That is not a technical nuisance. That is a direct hit to household budgets.  Inflation always hurts working families first and worst. When prices rise faster than paychecks, people do not need a lecture from Washington about “resilience.” They need relief. Instead, they get shrinking purchasing power, tighter budgets, delayed purchases, and more debt. They feel poorer because bad policy is making them poorer. Weak Labor Signals This would be bad enough if the economy were otherwise humming along. But it is not. Inflation moving higher while job growth weakens is the kind of combination that should make every policymaker nervous. That is how stagflation creeps back into the conversation: not all at once, but through a steady mix of higher costs, weaker confidence, and slower growth. The bigger problem is that Washington keeps feeding the fire instead of putting it out. The Fed’s Long Shadow Start with the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s total assets were $6.694 trillion as of April 8, according to FRED’s WALCL series.  That is down from the peak, but still enormous by any serious historical standard. Before the excesses that began in 2008, the Fed’s balance sheet was far smaller relative to the economy. By the balance-sheet-to-GDP chart, it is still roughly one-fifth of GDP today, far above the pre-2008 norm of about 6 percent.  That matters because a bloated central bank balance sheet is not neutral. Years of extraordinary intervention distorted asset prices, encouraged misallocation of capital, rewarded leverage, and helped fuel the inflationary pressures Americans are still dealing with. Easy money always looks clever on the way up. Then families get the bill on the way down. There should be a rule to reverse this. The Fed’s balance sheet should be put on a predictable path back toward roughly 6 percent of GDP over time, absent a true emergency. Emergency tools should not become permanent habits. Monetary policy should not be a standing engine of distortion. Sound money requires rules, restraint, and humility. Tariffs Raise Costs Then there is trade policy. Tariffs are taxes on Americans. They raise input costs for producers, increase prices for consumers, and create uncertainty for businesses trying to plan investment and hiring. There is no magic here. Protectionism does not create prosperity. It redistributes pain and calls it patriotism. That is especially damaging at a time like this. When inflation is already too high and growth is already soft, piling more costs onto supply chains is economic malpractice. Businesses do not absorb these costs out of kindness. They pass them through, delay expansion, or cut back elsewhere.  Overspending Adds Fuel
Fiscal policy is no better. Washington has spent years overspending up to $7 trillion per year, subsidizing consumption, picking winners, and pretending deficits do not matter. The result is exactly what basic economics would predict: weaker incentives for productive investment, higher interest costs, and a more fragile growth outlook. This is where the case for fiscal rules matters. I have long argued for a spending limit based on population growth plus inflation so government grows no faster than the private economy can sustain. Spend above that, and you get what we have now: bloated budgets, more debt, and less room for families and businesses to thrive. Fiscal discipline is not austerity. It is the minimum requirement for sanity. War and Uncertainty Add wars and geopolitical instability to this mess and the risks multiply. Conflict disrupts energy markets, rattles supply chains, clouds business expectations, and makes already-high prices even more volatile. At the same time, policy uncertainty from tariffs, deficits, and regulatory swings freezes hiring and investment. Businesses sit on their hands when Washington cannot stop moving the goalposts. That is how families get squeezed from every direction. Prices rise. Growth weakens. Job prospects soften. Confidence fades. And the people who caused much of the mess ask for even more power to manage it. Less Government, More Prosperity None of this should be surprising. Government tried to print prosperity, spend prosperity, and tariff its way to prosperity. It failed. Again. The answer is less government. That means monetary rules instead of discretion, spending restraint instead of endless deficits, open markets instead of tariffs, and a foreign policy that understands war is costly in both lives and living standards. Families do not need more central planning. They need room to work, save, invest, and build. I have made this case in my writings for years because the lesson keeps proving true: prosperity comes from free people and free markets, not from Washington trying to micromanage the economy. Inflation is not just a statistic. It is a policy failure with a grocery bill attached. Closing Thoughts March’s CPI report is a warning. Inflation is still too high. The Fed is still far from restored normality. Washington’s tariffs, overspending, and war-driven uncertainty are making the outlook worse, not better. If policymakers want to help families, they should stop distorting markets and start shrinking government. Subscribe to Let People Prosper on Substack and stay engaged. Share this with someone who is tired of paying for Washington’s mistakes, and follow along for more analysis on how we can restore sound money, rein in spending, remove barriers to growth, and let people prosper. Three key takeaways for policymakers
 Originally published on Substack. Today’s U.S. jobs report was better than expected, and that is welcome news. The economy added 178,000 jobs in March, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.5% over the past year, according to the latest BLS employment report. After the weakness earlier this year, that is a solid bounce. But let’s not kid ourselves. One better month does not mean the labor market is healthy. It means March was better than February. That is not the same thing. The Headline Was Better A gain of 178,000 jobs is real progress, well above what some expected. February payrolls had dropped by 133,000, so March was clearly an improvement. Americans keep working, businesses keep hiring when they can, and that resilience should be acknowledged.  But the same BLS report also says payroll employment has “changed little on net over the prior 12 months.” That is the line that matters most. This was a good month inside a labor market that has been sluggish for more than a year, with declines in six of the last fourteen months. Private Hiring Still Looks Weak The private sector added 186,000 jobs in March. That is better than a decline, but it is still not broad-based strength. The problem is not the size of the gain. It is how concentrated is that gain. According to the BLS data, health care added 76,000 jobs, construction added 26,000, transportation and warehousing added 21,000, and social assistance added 14,000. Those sectors did most of the work.  Meanwhile, financial activities lost 15,000 jobs, and BLS said manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, information, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and other services showed little change. That is not a broad private-sector expansion. That is a narrow labor market being carried by a few sectors. Government Jobs Declined Again Government employment fell by 8,000 in March, including an 18,000 drop in federal government jobs, according to the BLS report. That federal decline is good news on its own, as it is the fewest federal employees in 60 years and the lowest share of total employment since at least 1939.   But the broader lesson is more important. If federal payrolls (good) are shrinking while only a small private sectors addition (not good), that means the labor market is still too weak underneath the surface. A truly healthy economy would show broad hiring across many private industries, not just a few pockets doing the heavy lifting, which are dominated by government. The 12-Month Trend Is Still Soft The annual trend looks worse than the headline. BLS says construction had shown little net change over the prior 12 months. Transportation and warehousing is down 139,000 jobs since its February 2025 peak. Financial activities is down 77,000 since its May 2025 peak. And federal government employment is down 355,000, or 11.8%, since its October 2024 peak, per the same report.  Health care remains the standout, adding an average of 29,000 jobs per month over the prior year. That is good. But it also proves the larger point: too much of the labor market’s strength is concentrated in too few places that are dominated by government.
The Labor Force Drop Matters The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, but not for the best reason. The BLS report shows the civilian labor force fell by 396,000 in March. The number of people not in the labor force rose by 488,000. The labor force participation rate slipped to 61.9%, and the employment-population ratio fell to 59.2%. That means part of the lower unemployment rate came from fewer people being counted in the labor market, not from a broad surge in employment opportunities. That is why this report is better described as encouraging than reassuring. Wages Help, but Families Are Still Squeezed Wage growth at 3.5% over the year is better than falling behind inflation, at least for the moment. But it is hardly a huge cushion when families are still dealing with elevated prices for food, housing, insurance, and energy. And this is where bad policy keeps making things worse. Tariffs are taxes. They raise costs for businesses and consumers. Energy shocks tied to the war in Iran threaten to push gas prices and broader inflation higher. Years of overspending and monetary excess already strained affordability. Families do not experience the economy through one payroll headline. They experience it through their budget, and their budget is still under pressure. Bad Policy Still Drives the Weakness The jobs report does not assign causes. That is not its job. But the policy backdrop matters. A labor market with weak breadth and falling participation is more vulnerable to policy mistakes. Tariffs discourage trade and investment. Regulatory burdens raise costs and reduce flexibility. Overspending fuels inflation and weakens real purchasing power. Energy instability pushes input costs higher across the economy. Policy uncertainty makes businesses more cautious about hiring and expanding. So, yes, March was better. But the economy is still carrying the weight of too many bad policy choices. That is why this report is not a vindication of the current policy path. If anything, it is a reminder of how resilient Americans are despite Washington’s mistakes. Three Takeaways for Policymakers 1. Don’t oversell one month. March’s 178,000 job gain was a welcome bounce, but BLS says payrolls have changed little on net over the prior 12 months. 2. Private-sector strength is still too narrow. Most of the March gains came from health care, construction, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance, while many other industries were flat or down, according to BLS. 3. A lower unemployment rate means less if the labor force is shrinking. The BLS report shows the labor force fell by 396,000 in March and participation slipped to 61.9%. The Bottom Line March was a bounce. Good. But the private sector still looks too weak, too narrow, and too vulnerable to bad policy. Federal jobs fell, which is fine. The bigger issue is that broad private-sector hiring still is not there. And when the labor force is shrinking, a lower unemployment rate is not nearly as comforting as it looks. Policymakers should stop making affordability worse through tariffs, overspending, and more distortion.  Originally published on Substack. The latest February jobs report should be a wake-up call for policymakers.  Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4 percent, and labor force participation slipped to 62.0 percent, its lowest level since late 2021. The household survey showed 185,000 fewer Americans working and 203,000 more unemployed. This is not a healthy labor market. It looks increasingly like a jobs recession. And the deeper data suggests the problem is worse than the headline. The Sector Data Is Flashing Warning Signs The detailed industry employment tables show job losses spreading across key sectors tied to production and investment.  In February alone: • Manufacturing: −12,000 • Construction: −11,000 • Transportation and warehousing: −11,300 • Information: −11,000 • Leisure and hospitality: −27,000 • Private education and health services: −34,000 Even health care, long the strongest job-creating sector, lost 28,000 jobs. Meanwhile, gains were limited to a few smaller areas like financial activities and other services. The broader industry employment chart shows a troubling pattern: job losses are spreading while growth is concentrated in fewer sectors. Healthy labor markets grow broadly. Weak ones do not. The 12-Month Trend Is Even More Concerning Looking at the past year of industry employment data tells a similar story.  Most job growth came from private education and health services, which added roughly 650,000 jobs.
But several key sectors declined: • Transportation and warehousing: about −160,000 jobs • Manufacturing: about −100,000 jobs • Professional and business services: about −90,000 jobs • Information: about −70,000 jobs The long-term private employment trend still rises over decades, but the recent slope is flattening quickly. Private sector jobs have now declined in four of the last nine months. Put simply: the U.S. economy has lost jobs overall since April 2025, and total job gains from May 2025 through February 2026 are now negative. Businesses are not hiring into this level of policy uncertainty. The Workers Hit First Another troubling sign is which workers are being hit first. According to the latest unemployment breakdown: • Teen unemployment: 14.9 percent • Black unemployment: 7.7 percent • Hispanic unemployment: 5.2 percent • Asian unemployment: 4.8 percent Younger workers and minority workers are usually the first to suffer when labor markets weaken. The pattern is already emerging. BLS Revisions Reinforce the Weakness Recent Bureau of Labor Statistics revisions also show the labor market has been weaker than previously reported. Revisions adjusted prior months lower, confirming that hiring momentum has been fading for some time. In other words, the slowdown did not begin in February. It has been building. Protectionism Has Not Revived Manufacturing The policy explanation matters. Protectionist tariffs were supposed to revive American manufacturing. Instead, manufacturing employment continues to decline. Tariffs are simply taxes on American businesses and American families. They raise costs for manufacturers who rely on imported inputs and equipment. I have written about this repeatedly in my work on trade policy and economic growth. The economic logic is simple: taxing production inputs makes domestic production less competitive. You cannot rebuild American industry by making it more expensive to produce in America. Overspending and Regulation Are Making It Worse Trade policy is only part of the story. Washington’s spending explosion has increased deficits, fueled inflation, and forced tighter financial conditions. At the same time, regulatory pressure across industries has increased compliance costs and discouraged investment. The result is predictable: businesses delay hiring when policy becomes unstable. And now geopolitical uncertainty risks making things worse. The war with Iran began after the jobs survey period, so it did not cause the February weakness. But higher energy prices and global instability could easily compound the slowdown already underway. The Fed Cannot Solve This Some policymakers will respond by urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. That would miss the point. The Fed mainly controls nominal variables like inflation and credit conditions, not real variables like employment or productivity. If job losses are driven by tariffs, overspending, regulation, and uncertainty, monetary easing will not fix the cause. The better approach is for the Fed to continue shrinking its balance sheet while policymakers address the real problems. The Policy Reset We Need The path forward is clear. • End tariffs, which would deliver an immediate tax cut for American businesses and families. • Reduce federal spending, easing inflation pressure and restoring fiscal stability. • Cut regulatory burdens, allowing businesses to invest and hire. • Stabilize economic policy, so employers can plan with confidence. Real economic growth comes from production, entrepreneurship, and innovation. That means giving markets room to work. A Direct Call to Policymakers and the Media If you are a policymaker, staffer, or journalist reading this, the labor market is sending a warning signal. The data are clear. Job losses are spreading. Hiring momentum is fading. Participation is falling. Ignoring these signals will only make the eventual downturn worse. If you want deeper analysis, data interpretation, or policy solutions grounded in economic research, reach out. My work focuses on spending restraint, pro-growth tax policy, and economic freedom, and I regularly brief policymakers and media outlets on these issues. You can explore more of my research at my writings or subscribe to vanceginn.substack.com. The labor market warning lights are flashing. Now it is time for policymakers to act before they become sirens. Empowering Workers in a Changing Economy with Vinnie Vernuccio | Let People Prosper Ep. 1842/5/2026 If you listen closely to today’s labor debates, you’ll hear a familiar refrain: workers need more protection from Washington. But scratch the surface, and what many politicians really mean is more power for unions, more mandates for employers, and fewer choices for workers themselves.
That’s backward. In this episode of the Let People Prosper Show, I talk with Vinnie Vernuccio, one of the sharpest labor-policy minds in the country and a longtime advocate for actual worker freedom. We talk about what it really means to be pro-worker in a 21st-century economy—one defined by flexibility, technology, and individual choice, not 1930s labor law. This is a timely conversation. Between renewed pushes for the PRO Act, rising use of AI in the workplace, and growing attacks on independent contracting and right-to-work laws, the future of work is being shaped right now. And too often, workers are treated as political props rather than individuals with agency. This episode pushes back—hard. 🎧 Watch or listen to the full episode on YouTube, Apple Podcast, or Spotify, and visit my website at vanceginn.com for more information about my work at Ginn Economic Consulting.  Originally published on Substack. You’ve probably heard the line by now: “Don’t worry, the December jobs report was fine.” It wasn’t. Not on the surface. Not in the details. And not when you step back and look at where the labor market has been headed for years. The weakness we’re seeing today did not start in December. It didn’t start in 2025. And it didn’t even start in 2022. It started with man-made policy failures in 2020—destructive lockdowns, massive bailouts, and monetary excess—that broke labor-market institutions and left lasting damage. What we’re seeing now is the compounding effect of those decisions. This is not a failure of free-market capitalism. It’s a failure of government interference. December Was Weak—Even Before You Look at the Trend Start with the actual numbers from the December Employment Situation report.
Those numbers are often spun as “mixed.” They’re not. A 37,000 increase in private-sector jobs in a $28-trillion economy is weak. It signals that employers are pulling back, not expanding. And when government employment does the heavy lifting, it masks underlying weakness rather than fixing it. Meanwhile, the household survey is volatile and often overstated month to month. It captures self-employment, multiple jobholding, and informal work—not sustained employer demand. When private-sector hiring slows this sharply, the economy is already losing momentum. The Labor Market Has Been Frozen Since 2022 Now zoom out. Both major labor market surveys tell the same story over time: the labor market has been essentially frozen since 2022, and it’s getting worse. Household employment has been flat since January 2025. After a brief rise early in Trump’s second term, employment fell after “Liberation Day” and never recovered. That sideways movement explains why workers feel stuck.  Private-sector payroll growth peaked in 2021–2022 and has decelerated steadily since, with further deterioration in 2025 amid increased policy uncertainty. This is not cyclical weakness. It’s institutional damage. Participation Confirms Structural Failure The employment-to-population ratio tells us why this feels so bad.
 This means fewer workers are supporting the economy, fewer opportunities are expanding, and growth potential is shrinking. That’s not how healthy labor markets behave. Job openings remain elevated, but high openings without strong real wage growth reflect friction and mismatch, not prosperity. The Real Damage Came From “Pow-flation” The affordability crisis didn’t just appear. It was engineered. After Trump-Fauci-Biden lockdowns, Washington responded with massive fiscal bailouts and unprecedented debt. The Federal Reserve, under Jerome Powell, monetized much of that debt in 2020 and 2021, artificially suppressing interest rates.  The result was the highest inflation since the 1970s. Inflation has cooled—but it remains persistently above normal, closer to 2.5–3 percent rather than the Fed’s implied 2 percent target.  That persistence matters because wages never caught up. Real Pay Is Still Lower—and Families Feel It Real (inflation-adjusted) average weekly earnings are just now back to where they were in January 2021.  That figure understates the harm.
What matters is the cumulative loss in purchasing power—the area under the curve. Families didn’t just lose ground once. They’ve been losing ground for years. Prices reset higher. Paychecks did not. That’s why affordability dominates every economic conversation—and why no amount of political messaging can change how people feel. This Is Not a Market Failure Let’s be clear about something: free-market capitalism did not fail. Markets didn’t shut down the economy in 2020. Markets didn’t print trillions of dollars. Markets didn’t freeze labor mobility or distort incentives. The government did. What we’re living with now is the delayed cost of central planning, emergency powers, and monetary excess—not too much freedom. What Must Change If policymakers want to fix the labor market and restore affordability, the solution is not more intervention. It requires:
In short: get government out of the way. That’s how real wage growth returns, how opportunity expands, and how people prosper. Final Thought You’re going to hear a lot of spin in the months ahead. Some will claim the job numbers prove success. Others will claim disaster. Both sides miss the point. The labor market has been weak for years because policy broke it. Until leaders confront that truth—and stop repeating the mistakes that caused it—affordability will remain out of reach. Free markets didn’t fail. The government did. Today’s episode is our first of 2026, focused squarely on the latest economic headlines—and what they mean for your wallet, your work, and the direction of the country.
Washington has been busy. From another federal budget fight and renewed debates over health care subsidies, to fresh inflation data and major corporate developments, policymakers are already setting the tone for the year ahead. The choices being made now will shape whether families see real relief—or continued pressure—from higher costs and slower growth. In this episode, we’ll look beyond the headlines to examine what’s really driving these developments, where policy is helping—or hurting—affordability, and what leaders should prioritize if they’re serious about restoring growth and prosperity in 2026. Tune in to the full episode on YouTube, Apple Podcast, or Spotify, and visit my website for more information. Empowering Workers with a Prosperous Future with Austen Bannan | Let People Prosper Ep. 1811/15/2026 If you’ve ever wondered why it’s easier to order groceries on your phone than to legally cut hair, start a home business, or switch careers, this episode explains exactly what’s gone wrong.
America’s labor policies are stuck in the past—designed for a 1930s economy that no longer exists. Meanwhile, workers have moved on. They want flexibility. They want choice. They want opportunity. And increasingly, government is standing in the way. My guest is Austen Bannan, Workforce Policy Fellow at Americans for Prosperity and one of the sharpest voices making the case for worker freedom over bureaucratic control. Austen works at the intersection of labor policy, occupational licensing, and education reform—where outdated rules quietly crush opportunity for millions of Americans. This is a conversation about why empowering workers—not protecting systems—is essential if we actually want people to prosper. 🎧 Listen to the full episode of the Let People Prosper Show, and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or YouTube. You can also find more of my work at vanceginn.com and vanceginn.substack.com.  Originally published on Substack. After the longest federal shutdown in U.S. history of 43 days, the September 2025 jobs report finally dropped on November 20–six weeks late—and what’s inside should raise alarms for anyone who cares about economic freedom, job creation, and the future of American prosperity. In this issue, I break down why two of the last four months had negative job growth, why private-sector hiring is barely budging, why declining government jobs are good for growth, and how tariff-tax hikes are dragging down workers across the country. I also explain why the Supreme Court will play a critical role in restoring economic sanity. Let’s dig in. Figure 1: Total Nonfarm Payroll Monthly Change  As the Wall Street Journal observed in their coverage of the delayed release, the timing clouded an already weak labor-market picture. (WSJ: Delayed Jobs Report — September 2025) According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), only 119,000 jobs were added in September. But the deeper story lies in the revisions: nonfarm employment was negative in two of the last four months once adjustments were included. July and August were revised down 33,000 jobs combined, flipping August from a gain to a loss. BLS noted the shutdown gave firms more time to self-report payroll numbers, raising the collection rate to 80.2%. That may explain why revisions were smaller than earlier this year—not because the economy is stronger, but because the agency simply had more time to gather data. The weakness is real. Private-Sector Job Growth Barely Positive—While Government Jobs Shrink (Finally) Figure 2: Private Payrolls Monthly Change  Here’s the part most media outlets gloss over: Private-sector hiring is slightly higher than the headline number because government employment is shrinking. Federal government jobs fell by 3,000 in September and are down 97,000 since January. State and local government hiring is flat. This is one of the few bright spots. Government does not create wealth—it consumes it. Lower government payrolls relieve pressure on the private economy, which funds everything. But the bigger concern: even without government weighing down the numbers, private-sector hiring is still painfully slow. That means the problem isn’t the composition of employment. It’s federal policy itself. This fits the pattern I’ve documented in my writings (see vanceginn.com): When Washington overspends, overregulates, and tries to micromanage the economy, job growth stalls. Tariff Taxes Are Killing Momentum — And the Supreme Court Must Step In The timing isn’t subtle: the labor market flattened almost immediately after the administration rolled out its 2025 tariff tax hikes. Tariffs raise the cost of producing, hiring, and investing. They are taxes on American workers and consumers—not foreign governments. Even worse, they represent a constitutional problem: no president should have unilateral power to raise taxes through tariffs. The Founders intended the power of the purse to rest with Congress, not the executive. If the Supreme Court reins in this overreach, it will be a victory for liberty, markets, and rule of law. Household Employment Flat or Falling Since January Insert Figure 3: Labor Force Participation Rate  While payroll data gets headlines, the household survey tells the real story:
Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate is stuck at 62.4%—well below historical norms. Even the prime-age employment-to-population ratio, often touted as a sign of strength, has stalled. This is a labor market pushing against policy headwinds. A Sustainable Spending Limit Is Needed A shrinking government workforce is encouraging, but it won’t matter unless Washington tackles the core problem: runaway government spending that crowds out private activity. America needs spending cuts then a sustainable, population-plus-inflation spending limit—a rule that forces discipline, protects taxpayers, and spurs long-run prosperity. Spending limits work. States and countries that adopt them thrive. The delayed September jobs report revealed what the federal shutdown couldn’t hide:
America can do better. And it will—if Washington stops standing in the way. Bottom Line This month’s jobs report confirms what many families already feel: the labor market isn’t delivering the opportunity it should. Tariff taxes, regulation, and overspending are weighing down a private sector ready to innovate and grow. The best path forward is simple: less government, more freedom, and strong fiscal rules that protect workers instead of political interests. America’s Jobs Mirage: Weak Growth, Fewer Workers, and the Wrong Kind of Healthcare Hiring9/10/2025  Originally published on Substack.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics just dropped a bombshell: the U.S. economy isn’t nearly as strong as Washington claimed. Its annual benchmark revision erased 911,000 jobs from March 2024 to March 2025—a 0.6% drop in employment, one of the steepest downward corrections in decades. That means nearly a million jobs we thought existed never did. Add to that the August jobs report, which showed payrolls barely budged (+22,000) and the unemployment rate up to 4.3%—its highest since 2021. The household survey showed 7.4 million unemployed, with long-term joblessness up 385,000 over the past year, now making up more than 25% of all unemployed. Labor force participation slipped to 62.3%, and the employment-to-population ratio dropped to 59.6%. This is not a strong labor market. It’s stagnation. So what did Washington call the “bright spot”? Healthcare jobs. But before we cheer, let’s look closer. The Wrong Kind of Growth In Augus, healthcare added 31,000 jobs, while social assistance added another 16,000. Without those gains, the jobs report would have been net negative. But most of these new roles weren’t doctors or nurses—they were administrators, billing clerks, and compliance staff. Between 1970 and 2020, the number of practicing physicians . Today, of the 23.5 million people working in healthcare, fewer than one-third provide direct care. This is what Washington cheers: growth in bureaucracy funded by forced tax dollars, while patients wait longer for care. Bureaucracy First, Patients Last Here’s the perverse incentive: government regulations create new administrative requirements, so hospitals hire more staff to handle paperwork. Those salaries are paid first out of taxpayer-funded budgets and insurance dollars. Doctors and nurses are left fighting for what’s left. The Affordable Care Act was the clearest example. To fund it, Washington diverted $716 billion from Medicare into bureaucracy. That $1.76 trillion law coincided with doctor wait times jumping 25%—from 99 days to 132. More dollars went to administrators, not care. The result was predictable: longer waits and tragic “death by queue”, as patients died waiting for treatments that never came. Even when Washington warns that Medicaid cuts “pose a threat to health services”, it ignores that bureaucracy is untouchable. Cuts fall on provider reimbursements, not on administrative overhead. The doctor gets squeezed while the paperwork department grows. The Fed Factor With job growth flat and unemployment rising, some in Washington are pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to “stimulate” the economy. But inflation is still running hot: Core CPI inflation rose 3.1% over the year in August. If the Fed caves, it risks reigniting price surges while doing nothing to create more productive work. As I’ve been saying for months, we don’t fix a weak labor market by printing more money. We fix it by restraining government spending, ending distortive policies like tariffs, and freeing entrepreneurs and workers to create value. A Better Prescription for Prosperity Instead of applauding bureaucratic job growth, Washington should:
Closing Thought The August jobs report isn’t a win for working Americans. It’s a warning: the economy is sputtering, unemployment is the highest since 2021, and nearly a million jobs were just erased from the record books. The only “growth” Washington celebrates is more tax-funded bureaucracy in healthcare, which means higher costs and longer waits for patients. Prosperity doesn’t come from Washington’s accounting tricks or the Fed’s printing press. It comes from freedom: lower spending, fewer bureaucrats, more providers, and empowered patients. That’s the kind of growth worth celebrating. |
Vance Ginn, Ph.D.
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