​Today’s episode is our first of 2026, focused squarely on the latest economic headlines—and what they mean for your wallet, your work, and the direction of the country.

Washington has been busy. From another federal budget fight and renewed debates over health care subsidies, to fresh inflation data and major corporate developments, policymakers are already setting the tone for the year ahead. The choices being made now will shape whether families see real relief—or continued pressure—from higher costs and slower growth.

In this episode, we’ll look beyond the headlines to examine what’s really driving these developments, where policy is helping—or hurting—affordability, and what leaders should prioritize if they’re serious about restoring growth and prosperity in 2026. Tune in to the full episode on YouTube, Apple Podcast, or Spotify, and visit my website for more information.

​If you’ve ever wondered why it’s easier to order groceries on your phone than to legally cut hair, start a home business, or switch careers, this episode explains exactly what’s gone wrong.

America’s labor policies are stuck in the past—designed for a 1930s economy that no longer exists. Meanwhile, workers have moved on. They want flexibility. They want choice. They want opportunity. And increasingly, government is standing in the way.

My guest is Austen Bannan, Workforce Policy Fellow at Americans for Prosperity and one of the sharpest voices making the case for worker freedom over bureaucratic control. Austen works at the intersection of labor policy, occupational licensing, and education reform—where outdated rules quietly crush opportunity for millions of Americans.

This is a conversation about why empowering workers—not protecting systems—is essential if we actually want people to prosper.

🎧 Listen to the full episode of the Let People Prosper Show, and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or YouTube. You can also find more of my work at vanceginn.com and vanceginn.substack.com.

Originally published on Substack. 

​After the longest federal shutdown in U.S. history of 43 days, the September 2025 jobs report finally dropped on November 20–six weeks late—and what’s inside should raise alarms for anyone who cares about economic freedom, job creation, and the future of American prosperity.

In this issue, I break down why two of the last four months had negative job growth, why private-sector hiring is barely budging, why declining government jobs are good for growth, and how tariff-tax hikes are dragging down workers across the country. I also explain why the Supreme Court will play a critical role in restoring economic sanity.

Let’s dig in.

​Figure 1: Total Nonfarm Payroll Monthly Change

As the Wall Street Journal observed in their coverage of the delayed release, the timing clouded an already weak labor-market picture. (WSJ: Delayed Jobs Report — September 2025)

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), only 119,000 jobs were added in September. But the deeper story lies in the revisions: nonfarm employment was negative in two of the last four months once adjustments were included. July and August were revised down 33,000 jobs combined, flipping August from a gain to a loss.

BLS noted the shutdown gave firms more time to self-report payroll numbers, raising the collection rate to 80.2%. That may explain why revisions were smaller than earlier this year—not because the economy is stronger, but because the agency simply had more time to gather data.

The weakness is real.

Private-Sector Job Growth Barely Positive—While Government Jobs Shrink (Finally)

Figure 2: Private Payrolls Monthly Change

Here’s the part most media outlets gloss over: Private-sector hiring is slightly higher than the headline number because government employment is shrinking.

Federal government jobs fell by 3,000 in September and are down 97,000 since January. State and local government hiring is flat.

This is one of the few bright spots. Government does not create wealth—it consumes it. Lower government payrolls relieve pressure on the private economy, which funds everything.

But the bigger concern: even without government weighing down the numbers, private-sector hiring is still painfully slow. That means the problem isn’t the composition of employment. It’s federal policy itself.

This fits the pattern I’ve documented in my writings (see vanceginn.com):

When Washington overspends, overregulates, and tries to micromanage the economy, job growth stalls.

Tariff Taxes Are Killing Momentum — And the Supreme Court Must Step In

The timing isn’t subtle: the labor market flattened almost immediately after the administration rolled out its 2025 tariff tax hikes.

Tariffs raise the cost of producing, hiring, and investing. They are taxes on American workers and consumers—not foreign governments.

Even worse, they represent a constitutional problem: no president should have unilateral power to raise taxes through tariffs. The Founders intended the power of the purse to rest with Congress, not the executive.

If the Supreme Court reins in this overreach, it will be a victory for liberty, markets, and rule of law.

Household Employment Flat or Falling Since January

Insert Figure 3: Labor Force Participation Rate

While payroll data gets headlines, the household survey tells the real story:

• Employment has been flat or declining for nearly a year.
• Unemployment rose to 7.6 million people.
• Long-term unemployment remains high at 1.8 million.
• Part-time work for economic reasons remains elevated.

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate is stuck at 62.4%—well below historical norms.

Even the prime-age employment-to-population ratio, often touted as a sign of strength, has stalled. This is a labor market pushing against policy headwinds.

A Sustainable Spending Limit Is Needed

A shrinking government workforce is encouraging, but it won’t matter unless Washington tackles the core problem: runaway government spending that crowds out private activity.

America needs spending cuts then a sustainable, population-plus-inflation spending limit—a rule that forces discipline, protects taxpayers, and spurs long-run prosperity.

Spending limits work. States and countries that adopt them thrive.
​
The delayed September jobs report revealed what the federal shutdown couldn’t hide:

• Two of the last four months saw negative job growth.
• Private-sector hiring is barely moving.
• Government jobs are declining—which is good—but the private economy is still sluggish.
• Tariff taxes are stifling investment and hiring.
• Household employment is flat.
• Participation is stuck.
• The labor market is weak—and policy is making it weaker.

​America can do better. And it will—if Washington stops standing in the way.

Bottom Line

This month’s jobs report confirms what many families already feel: the labor market isn’t delivering the opportunity it should. Tariff taxes, regulation, and overspending are weighing down a private sector ready to innovate and grow.

The best path forward is simple: less government, more freedom, and strong fiscal rules that protect workers instead of political interests.

Originally published on Substack. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics just dropped a bombshell: the U.S. economy isn’t nearly as strong as Washington claimed. Its annual benchmark revision erased 911,000 jobs from March 2024 to March 2025—a 0.6% drop in employment, one of the steepest downward corrections in decades. That means nearly a million jobs we thought existed never did.

Add to that the August jobs report, which showed payrolls barely budged (+22,000) and the unemployment rate up to 4.3%—its highest since 2021. The household survey showed 7.4 million unemployed, with long-term joblessness up 385,000 over the past year, now making up more than 25% of all unemployed. Labor force participation slipped to 62.3%, and the employment-to-population ratio dropped to 59.6%. This is not a strong labor market. It’s stagnation.

So what did Washington call the “bright spot”? Healthcare jobs. But before we cheer, let’s look closer.

​The Wrong Kind of Growth

In Augus, healthcare added 31,000 jobs, while social assistance added another 16,000. Without those gains, the jobs report would have been net negative. But most of these new roles weren’t doctors or nurses—they were administrators, billing clerks, and compliance staff.

Between 1970 and 2020, the number of practicing physicians . Today, of the 23.5 million people working in healthcare, fewer than one-third provide direct care.

This is what Washington cheers: growth in bureaucracy funded by forced tax dollars, while patients wait longer for care.

Bureaucracy First, Patients Last

Here’s the perverse incentive: government regulations create new administrative requirements, so hospitals hire more staff to handle paperwork. Those salaries are paid first out of taxpayer-funded budgets and insurance dollars. Doctors and nurses are left fighting for what’s left.

The Affordable Care Act was the clearest example. To fund it, Washington diverted $716 billion from Medicare into bureaucracy. That $1.76 trillion law coincided with doctor wait times jumping 25%—from 99 days to 132. More dollars went to administrators, not care. The result was predictable: longer waits and tragic “death by queue”, as patients died waiting for treatments that never came.

Even when Washington warns that Medicaid cuts “pose a threat to health services”, it ignores that bureaucracy is untouchable. Cuts fall on provider reimbursements, not on administrative overhead. The doctor gets squeezed while the paperwork department grows.

The Fed Factor

With job growth flat and unemployment rising, some in Washington are pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to “stimulate” the economy. But inflation is still running hot: Core CPI inflation rose 3.1% over the year in August. If the Fed caves, it risks reigniting price surges while doing nothing to create more productive work.

As I’ve been saying for months, we don’t fix a weak labor market by printing more money. We fix it by restraining government spending, ending distortive policies like tariffs, and freeing entrepreneurs and workers to create value.

A Better Prescription for Prosperity

Instead of applauding bureaucratic job growth, Washington should:

1. Cut bureaucracy first. Stop funding administrators ahead of patient care. Taxpayers shouldn’t pay for jobs that add red tape instead of healing.
2. Free up providers. Scrap outdated scope-of-practice and certificate-of-need laws so more medical professionals can serve patients.
3. Empower families. Put healthcare dollars directly in personalized patient accounts. Competition lowers costs and improves quality in every other sector—why not in healthcare?

Closing Thought

The August jobs report isn’t a win for working Americans. It’s a warning: the economy is sputtering, unemployment is the highest since 2021, and nearly a million jobs were just erased from the record books. The only “growth” Washington celebrates is more tax-funded bureaucracy in healthcare, which means higher costs and longer waits for patients.
​
Prosperity doesn’t come from Washington’s accounting tricks or the Fed’s printing press. It comes from freedom: lower spending, fewer bureaucrats, more providers, and empowered patients. That’s the kind of growth worth celebrating.

Originally published on Substack. 

The first jobs report since President Trump dismissed the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in weaker than expected. The U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs in August — far below the forecast of 76,500 — while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, the highest since October 2021.

The details show a labor market that has been slowing for more than a year, even before Trump returned to office, and now faces new pressures from harmful tariffs, regulatory overhang, and policy uncertainty.
​
The numbers themselves should dispel any illusion of a booming jobs market. This isn’t strength. It’s stagnation — and without a course correction, it could become stagflation.

​The Bureau of Labor Statistics report shows the cracks beneath the surface. Job revisions cut earlier months lower, reinforcing the reality that employment growth has been weakening for over a year. The August headline number — +22,000 jobs — barely moves the needle. Unemployment ticked up to 4.3 percent, and the number of long-term unemployed rose to nearly 2 million, now more than a quarter of the total unemployed.

Labor force participation remains stuck at 62.3 percent, down 0.4 percentage points over the past year. The employment-population ratio has also slipped, underscoring how fewer Americans are working relative to the overall population. More people are discouraged, working part-time involuntarily, or outside the labor force altogether.

Wages, meanwhile, show a mixed picture. Average weekly earnings rose 3.4 percent over the past year, running slightly ahead of core inflation at 3.1 percent. That’s a small win for workers, but hardly a victory. After years of paychecks being eaten by inflation, this is more of a pause than a rebound.
​
The deeper issue is policy.

​Trump’s new tariffs and trade protectionism are already adding uncertainty to business investment, especially in manufacturing. Tariffs are simply taxes on Americans — they raise costs, reduce consumer choice, and make it harder for businesses to hire and grow. This is why the recent court decision striking down unilateral executive tariffs was so important. Trade policy belongs to Congress, not the executive, and if the Supreme Court upholds this decision, it will rein in one of the most harmful tools of economic populism.

On top of this, the benefits of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) haven’t yet been felt. The bill’s pro-growth reforms are still being phased in, while the economy continues to carry the weight of Biden’s regulatory overreach. The result is policy whiplash: Biden’s red tape combined with Trump’s tariffs creates an environment of uncertainty that discourages investment and hiring. Businesses don’t expand when they can’t see the rules of the game.

Then there’s the Federal Reserve. Some will argue this weak jobs report means the Fed should cut interest rates to “stimulate” the economy. That would be a grave mistake. The Fed’s mandate is price stability, and with core PCE inflation still running at 3.1 percent, well above the 2 percent target, loosening monetary policy now would only reignite inflation. More money chasing fewer goods, while job growth is flat, is the classic recipe for stagflation. We lived through that in the 1970s, and the lessons should not be forgotten.

​What we need is a return to pro-growth fundamentals. That means:

• Spending restraint in Washington, so fiscal policy doesn’t keep adding fuel to inflation.
• Free trade, not tariffs, so consumers and businesses benefit from lower costs and expanded opportunities.
• Regulatory reform, to clear out the rules that make it harder for businesses to expand and hire.
• Stable money, with the Fed focusing on bringing inflation down rather than chasing job numbers it can’t fix.

As someone living near Austin, Texas, I observe how these national policies impact the local economy. High housing costs, rising food prices, and job uncertainty squeeze families. Businesses struggle with trade disruptions and regulatory burdens. Texas remains an attractive destination for people leaving California and other high-cost states, but even here, bad federal policy makes prosperity harder.

The August jobs report is more than a monthly data point. It’s a worrisome trend. The U.S. labor market is weakening, and misguided policies are exacerbating the situation. If Washington continues down this road — tariffs, overspending, and monetary missteps — we risk slipping into stagflation.

The better path is clear. Empower markets, not government. Cut spending, end protectionism, and focus monetary policy on stable prices. That’s how we restore sustainable job growth and real wage gains. Anything else is just rearranging the deck chairs while the ship slows down.

Conclusion

The August jobs report confirms the trend: the labor market has been weakening for months, and now the slowdown is plain in the data. Tariffs and protectionism are adding to the drag, regulatory burdens remain heavy, and the Fed risks fueling inflation if it cuts too soon.

America doesn’t need more government intervention. It requires pro-growth reforms that trust people and markets. Only then can we move beyond stagnation toward genuine prosperity.