Here's my interview at the link below on these issues and more that starts at the time 14:20.
Here's my interview on KEYE TV with video here: http://keyetv.com/news/local/falling-oil-prices-could-spell-trouble-for-austin.
For the last year and a half, drivers across the nation have enjoyed paying less and less for a gallon of gasoline. "Lower gasoline prices help us to have more money to go buy food or put food on the table," said Dr. Vance Ginn, economist at the Texas Public Policy Foundation.
But Dr. Ginn notes, here in Texas, that good news is countered by bad news. "If it continues to stay low, there is going to be some larger effects moving forward," he said. "Oil and gas is the lifeblood of the Texas economy, and really, the nation."
Eighteen months after oil prices began to slump due to a global oversupply and a strong dollar, Dr. Ginn is using the R-word on Texas cities that depend more on the oil and gas industry. "In Houston or Midland-Odessa, they're really going to struggle. And we could see more regional types of recessions," he said.
Texas has diversified its industries since the oil bust of the 1980s -- more tech in Austin, financial services in Dallas-Fort Worth. And if you just look at job growth numbers, all seems well. "Over the last year, Austin job growth has increased by 4.1 percent. That's pretty fast," Dr. Ginn said. But Austin, even though it's heavy on tech, can't hold out on oil and gas trouble forever. "There is less consumption," said Dr. Ginn. "There's a slowdown in hiring, things of that nature that also has an effect on Austin itself." Already, the state is seeing a dip in revenues coming from the oil and gas industry.
So while Austinites enjoy the low gas prices, remember, if it seems too good to be true, it probably is.
"Fourteen percent of the private economy being dependent on oil and gas activity across the state of Texas, you are going to see that spread across the state including in Austin," Dr. Ginn said.
New Texas employment report shows unemployment rate has been at or below the U.S. average for 107 consecutive months
AUSTIN – Today, the Texas Workforce Commission released Texas labor market data for November 2015. The Texas Public Policy Foundation’s Center for Fiscal Policy Economist Dr. Vance Ginn issued the following statement:
“Texas continues to defy those who wish to hail the demise of the state’s model of no personal income tax, low taxes overall, limited government spending, and less regulation from the drop in oil prices with yet another month of positive job creation in November. The 16,300 net nonfarm jobs created last month brings the remarkable streak of more jobs added to 60 out of the last 62 months contributing to the state’s 4.6 percent unemployment rate being at or below the national average for 107 straight months.
“Although the mining and logging industry, which is dominated by the oil and gas sector, has lost 30,300 jobs during the last 12 months, the industry has reason for optimism as Congress looks poised to lift the arcane 40-year ban on oil exports. Considering the oil and gas sector has been a bright spot in an otherwise dismal national economic recovery with Texas creating a large share of U.S. jobs since the Great Recession, lifting the ban will likely help boost job creation in Texas and nationwide.”
Vance Ginn, Ph.D.