 Originally published on Texans for Fiscal Responsibility. Texas continues to outperform most of the nation in job creation and output, but signs of cooling are appearing beneath the surface. The latest data from the Texas Workforce Commission, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Economic Analysis show that while Texas’ economy remains strong, inflation and excessive spending threaten its momentum. Employment and Unemployment Texas added 17,600 jobs in August 2025, marking continued but slower growth after several months of cooling. The state’s unemployment rate increased to 4.1%, remaining below the national average of 4.3%. Over the past year, Texas employers have added 195,600 jobs, bringing total nonfarm employment to 14.35 million—a 1.4% annual growth rate, compared with just 0.9% nationwide. The labor force grew by 169,500 people to 15.86 million during the same period, reflecting ongoing population inflows as families and businesses continue to relocate to the Lone Star State. Texas continues to outperform other large states, with nonfarm job growth stronger than California’s at 0.4%, New York’s at 1.3%, and Florida’s at 1.0%. Private-sector job creation in Texas is slowing, with a 1.3% increase, while government employment has seen a 1.7% increase—a concerning trend for a state built on entrepreneurship and free markets.  GDP and Output According to the latest BEA report, Texas’ real GDP grew 6.8% at an annualized rate in the second quarter of 2025, above the national average of 3.8%. The state continues to outperform peers thanks to strength in construction, professional services, and energy, offsetting slower performance in manufacturing and trade.  Among other large and nearby states, Florida (3.3%), Oklahoma (3.6%), and Louisiana (4.0%) trail just behind, underscoring that Texas remains a leader but cannot take that position for granted.
What Texas Gets Right Texas’ strengths are well known:
These fundamentals have made Texas an economic powerhouse—but they must be defended. Where Texas Falls Short Texas also has weaknesses that can’t be ignored:
These trends represent a creeping expansion of government—precisely the opposite of what drives lasting prosperity. The Path Forward
Conclusion Texas remains one of America’s economic engines, but growth is slowing and inflation is eroding families’ paychecks. The solution isn’t more government—it’s fiscal restraint, lower property taxes, and a renewed commitment to letting people prosper. Texas has every advantage in the world. To keep it, lawmakers must remember what made this state thrive in the first place: limited government, competitive markets, and freedom for workers, entrepreneurs, and families.
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 Originally posted at Pelican Institute. The latest economic data for Louisiana paint a troubling picture of slow job growth, lagging income gains, and continued out-migration. While the state saw a modest population increase in 2024 after years of decline, thousands of residents still left for better opportunities elsewhere. Louisiana continues to struggle with weak economic performance compared to neighboring states, reinforcing the urgent need for pro-growth reforms that create jobs, attract investment, and make the state a more competitive place to live and work. Job Growth Lags Behind Neighboring States Louisiana’s nonfarm employment grew by 9,400 in the fourth quarter of 2024, bringing total employment to 1.97 million. This represents an average of 3,133 new jobs per month, which is positive but still well below the pace of growth in the region. Compared to the previous year, Louisiana had the slowest job growth rate in the third quarter of 2024 among neighboring states, increasing by just 0.9%. For comparison, states likeAlabama (1.9%),Arkansas (1.8%),Mississippi (1.3%), andTexas (2.0%) all outpaced Louisiana in job creation. Florida added 218,700 jobs (1.5%) over the same period, while Texas saw 293,100 new jobs (2.0%). Louisiana’s sluggish job growth means fewer opportunities for residents and less economic dynamism. Economic Growth Among the Weakest in the Nation Louisiana’s real GDP grew by 2.3% in the third quarter of 2024, bringing the total economic output to $257.2 billion. Unfortunately, this ranked 38th among U.S. states and was the worst growth rate in the region. By contrast, states likeAlabama (6.0%),Arkansas (6.9%), andTexas (4.2%) experienced much stronger economic growth. The national economy also grew faster, meaning Louisiana is falling behind in its ability to expand businesses, attract capital, and create high-paying jobs. Personal Income Growth Remains Weak Personal income growth is key to economic prosperity, yet Louisiana ranks near the bottom nationally. In the third quarter of 2024, personal income in the state grew by just 2.3%, placing Louisiana 40th in the country and well below the U.S. average of 3.2%. Once again, Louisiana trailed neighboring states, withAlabama (5.0%),Arkansas (5.4%),Mississippi (4.8%), andTexas (4.0%) all experiencing higher income growth. Slower income growth means Louisiana residents have less spending power and fewer financial opportunities than workers in faster-growing states. Out-Migration Continues to Drain People and Wealth Louisiana’s population grew slightly in 2024, adding 9,669 residents to 4.6 million. However, this increase masks a troubling trend: thousands of Louisianans continue to leave for better opportunities elsewhere. The state experienced a net loss of 29,692 residents (-0.38%) due to domestic out-migration, ranking 7th worst in the nation. This trend of out-migration has serious long-term consequences, reducing the state’s workforce and eroding the tax base. Even more concerning is the financial toll of this exodus. In 2022, Louisiana lost $882 million in adjusted gross income due to residents moving to states withlower taxes and better job opportunities. Over the last few years (2019–2022), this income loss has totaled $2.3 billion, making Louisiana one of the biggest losers of wealth in the country. The Case for Pro-Growth Reform The latest data show that Louisiana is falling behind. Without major reforms, the state will continue to struggle with stagnant job growth, low incomes, and ongoing outmigration. Policymakers must take decisive action to reverse these negative trends and make Louisiana more competitive and business-friendly. Here’s what pro-growth reforms should include: Tax relief: Reduce the tax burden on individuals and businesses to attract new investment and retain workers. Regulatory reform: Cut excessive red tape that stifles job creation and entrepreneurship. Workforce development: Improve education and job training programs to equip residents with in-demand skills. Economic freedom: Reduce government spending and bureaucracy to create a more dynamic, opportunity-driven economy. By removing barriers to growth, Louisiana can boost job creation, raise incomes, and retain its population rather than losing residents to more prosperous states. The time for action is now—Louisiana cannot afford to keep falling behind. Read our Winter 2025 Quarterly Economic Report here.  Originally posted at Texans for Fiscal Responsibility.
Texas continues to lead as an economic powerhouse in the United States, but challenges persist. With the 2025 legislative session around the corner, it’s imperative that lawmakers address rising government spending, high property taxes, and regulatory barriers to ensure sustainable growth. The following analysis highlights where Texas stands today and what must be done to keep the Lone Star State competitive. The State of the Texas Economy Texas stands as a national leader in economic performance, with its real gross domestic product (GDP) growing by 4.2% in Q3 2024, ranking 9th nationally. This robust growth outpaced the national average of 3.1% and underscores the state’s resilience and business-friendly policies. However, with Florida growing at 3.3% (21st) and California at 3.1% (23rd), Texas leads but can’t sit on its laurels. Personal income growth in Texas remains strong, increasing by 4.0% in Q3 2024. This outpaces Florida’s 3.3% and California’s 3.1%, further highlighting the state’s economic strength. In the labor market, Texas added 274,300 jobs year-over-year through November 2024, achieving an annual job growth rate of 2.0%, which outpaced the national rate of 1.4%. The civilian labor force reached a record 15.5 million, with a participation rate of 64.7%, the highest in a decade. Despite these gains, the state’s unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, ranking 33rd nationally, behind Florida’s 3.4% (19th) but ahead of California’s 5.4% (49th). Challenges Facing Texas in 2025 Despite its strengths, Texas faces critical challenges that could hinder its long-term prosperity. The state’s budget increased by a record 32% last session. This unsustainable trajectory risks undermining the fiscal stability that has attracted businesses and residents to Texas. Without immediate reform, this spending growth could necessitate higher taxes or reduce the state’s competitiveness. Property taxes in Texas are among the highest in the nation, driven largely by the school district maintenance and operations (M&O) tax, which directly impacts homeowners and businesses. This tax discourages homeownership and investment, underscoring the need for substantial reform to provide relief and support economic growth. Texas also lags in regulatory efficiency. Overly burdensome occupational licensing requirements and delays in permitting processes stifle entrepreneurship and innovation. In contrast, Florida’s streamlined regulatory framework has created a more dynamic business environment. The state’s business franchise tax, or margins tax, continues to act as a barrier to small business growth and investment. Eliminating this tax would provide immediate economic benefits and enhance Texas’ reputation as a pro-business state. Recommendations for the 2025 Legislative Session To sustain its economic leadership position, Texas must enact bold reforms during the upcoming legislative session. Chief among these is spending less with a maximum of a zero-growth budget, which freezes spending. In addition to spending restraint, Texas must address its property tax burden by using surplus revenues above less spending to phase out the school district M&O tax. This reform would relieve homeowners and businesses of one of the state’s largest economic barriers and encourage further investment. But this should be combined with paths to eliminating all property taxes in Texas so Texans can finally own their home. Abolishing the franchise tax should also be a priority. Eliminating this tax would attract more businesses and entrepreneurs, fueling job creation and long-term growth. Streamlining regulatory processes is another essential step. Simplifying occupational licensing requirements and recognizing out-of-state licenses will lower costs for workers and businesses alike. Improving permitting efficiency will encourage faster investments in key industries. Finally, lawmakers must expand education freedom by implementing universal education savings accounts (ESAs). This policy would empower parents, improve educational outcomes, and reduce inefficiencies in the school funding system. Conclusion With a strong economy and a growing workforce, the state has the tools to lead the nation. However, bold action is needed to address runaway spending, high taxes, and regulatory burdens. By adopting a zero-growth budget, eliminating burdensome taxes, and expanding economic freedoms, Texas can secure its position as the top destination for businesses and families alike. The 2025 legislative session offers an opportunity for transformative reforms. The path forward is clear: spend less, tax less, regulate less, and let people prosper. With the right policies, Texas can continue to shine as a beacon of opportunity and growth for generations to come.  Similar version originally published at Texans for Fiscal Responsibility.
As Texas faces rising property taxes and record-high government spending, it’s time to reassess the path toward long-term prosperity. Recent data illustrates Texas’ strengths and challenges. In August 2024, Texas maintained a 4.1% unemployment rate, while the state’s GDP grew by 3.5% in Q2 2024, outpacing national averages. However, the last legislative session resulted in unprecedented government spending increases, threatening Texas’ fiscal stability. The solution is clear: spending cuts, lower taxes, and imposing the strongest possible spending limits on state and local governments. This can be done by ending excessive spending of at least $30 billion, which is a 15% cut in state funds. Corporate Welfare: A Drain on Taxpayers of $10 billion New constitutionally-dedicated funds like the $5 billion to Texas Energy Loan Fund, $1 billion to Texas Water Fund, and $1.5 billion to Texas Broadband Infrastructure Fund create even more opportunities for contractors and financial firms to benefit at the taxpayer’s expense. Expanding these programs is already being discussed, adding to concerns about unchecked government spending. Not spending these funds and instead redirecting them toward broad-based tax relief would benefit all Texans, not just a select few private entities. Other corporate welfare programs like the Texas Enterprise Fund (TEF) and Chapter 403, the newly revamped property tax abatement program that replaced the expired Chapter 313, continue to burden taxpayers. Overfunding the Government School System by $17 billion Annually Texas is overfunding its monopoly government school system, spending billions of dollars annually on a system that lacks competition and efficiency. A transition to universal Education Savings Accounts (ESAs) would inject competition into the education sector, allowing parents to choose the best educational options for their children. Moving to universal ESAs could save the state an estimated $17 billion per year by allowing the state to spend $12,000 per 6.3 million school-age kids instead of $16,792 per 5.5 million enrolled at government schools. These savings could be used to eliminate school property taxes, providing meaningful relief for homeowners and fostering a more dynamic, competitive education system. Medicaid Reform: Lowering Costs with HSAs for Savings of At Least $3 billion Annually Healthcare spending, especially through Medicaid, is another area where Texas can find significant savings. Shifting Medicaid recipients to work requirements and Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) would encourage more cost-effective healthcare decisions, saving the state at least $3 billion annually. These savings could then be applied toward property tax relief, allowing Texans to benefit from lower overall taxes while promoting personal responsibility in healthcare. Achieving Property Tax Elimination Through Fiscal Discipline By combining savings from eliminating corporate welfare, passing school choice, and reforming Medicaid, Texas could save at least $30 billion per year. These funds could eliminate most, if not all, school district M&O property taxes, providing substantial relief for homeowners. It is also critical to enact the strongest possible constitutional spending limit, tying state and local government spending growth to a maximum of population growth plus inflation. But with record spending increases in the most recent legislative session, including the creation of the Texas Water Fund and Texas Broadband Fund, it’s crucial to cut government spending, pass Frozen Texas Budgets, and provide fiscal responsibility. Securing Texas’ Economic Future Texas is at a crossroads. While the state’s economy remains relatively strong, with low unemployment and impressive GDP growth, the rapid rise in government spending, corporate welfare, and property taxes pose significant risks to its long-term success. Texas can secure a prosperous future by embracing a strategy of lower taxes, spending restraint, and market-driven reforms. Eliminating corporate welfare, expanding school choice, and adopting Medicaid reform will unleash the opportunity to eliminate school district M&O property taxes, allowing Texans to keep more of their income and ensuring that the state remains a beacon of economic freedom. |
Vance Ginn, Ph.D.
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