These are my prepared remarks for a keynote speech on April 24, 2025 at the Pennsylvania Aggregates and Concrete Association ( PACA) meetings in State College, PA. 

Thank you for having me. It’s a privilege to be with you here in State College, Pennsylvania—home to hard hats, strong backs, big trucks, and folks who actually know how to get things built. Now, I’m just an economist, which means I can explain tomorrow why what I predicted yesterday didn’t happen today—but at least I brought charts and conviction!

In all seriousness, I want to acknowledge the outstanding work of the Pennsylvania Aggregates and Concrete Association (PACA). You're not just producers of crushed stone, ready-mix concrete, sand and gravel, and cement. You are builders of roads, homes, and businesses—the very foundation of freedom and prosperity. You represent over 200 companies across this state, many of which are family-owned, multi-generational businesses rooted in local communities. You're proof that economic growth and environmental stewardship are not mutually exclusive.

Aggregates are among the most abundant resources on earth, essential to agriculture, construction, and transportation. Congress has recognized them as critical to our national security and economic stability. In Pennsylvania, you make that mission real. This state ranks second nationally in crushed stone production, behind only Texas, my home state. In 2019, you helped produce part of America’s 1.53 billion tons of crushed stone. PennDOT is your largest customer. That speaks volumes about the strategic importance of your industry.

You keep the country moving—literally. And yet, you face challenges: rising input costs, outdated regulations, labor shortages, and tariffs that penalize your progress. That’s why we’re here today. Because this moment isn’t just about reacting—it’s about resetting. It’s about laying a new foundation for freedom, competitiveness, and certainty.

Now, if you’re feeling frustrated or confused by what’s happening in the economy, you’re not alone. That feeling is real. I’ve felt it too. Let me ask you a question: how many of you here today are perfect? Anyone? Well, I certainly wasn’t in my late teens and early 20s. Back then, I wasn’t dreaming of federal budgets—I was dreaming of being a rock star.

I played drums in a Houston-based band called Sindrome. We were doing pretty well, gigging around town, chasing the dream. I was living in the moment, caught up in the lifestyle, and not thinking much about tomorrow. But life has a way of waking you up. I grew up in a single-mom household in South Houston, Texas. My mom dropped out of high school in the 10th grade and worked multiple jobs. She gave everything so that my sister and I had a chance.

As a teenager, I didn’t dream of economic policy. I wanted to be a rock drummer. Then came May 25, 2002. I was riding shotgun, racing another car at 120 miles per hour, when we clipped another vehicle. We rolled six times and skidded upside down for 40 yards. I was life-flighted to Hermann Hospital. I walked out that night, miraculously. That crash didn’t end my life—it gave it direction. It was the moment I knew I needed a new foundation. My life couldn’t be built on adrenaline and chance. It had to be built on something real. I realized I was building my life on sand. I needed a foundation.
I found that foundation in faith, family, and freedom. I attended college at Texas Tech University, where I earned my Ph.D. in economics, taught classes there and Sam Houston State University, led policy initiatives in Texas at the Texas Public Policy Foundation for about a decade, and then served as the Chief Economist in the the first Trump White House’s Office of Management and Budget. I helped write a budget that saved $4.6 trillion. But when lockdowns came, and liberty gave way to fear and control, I knew I had to step away and speak out.

So while today’s economic climate may feel chaotic, let me be clear: certainty starts with you. It begins in your home, your business, your principles—and we need that now more than ever.

Section I: The Economic Storm—2025 Realities
The U.S. economy in 2025 stands at a crossroads. While March brought a temporary boost in new single-family home sales, spurred by a short-lived drop in mortgage rates, the underlying fundamentals remain shaky. Inflation has persisted above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Interest rates remain high. Borrowing costs continue to stifle investment, especially in construction and manufacturing.

Milton Friedman once said, “Inflation is taxation without legislation.” And right now, American families and businesses are paying the price.

The Biden administration left behind an economy propped up by artificial stimulus, loose monetary policy, and runaway federal spending. It wasn’t sustainable. And now, with a new administration attempting to course-correct, businesses are waiting. Markets are pausing. Families are hesitant.

It’s not just uncertainty—it’s compounded fragility. And when uncertainty collides with fragility, the result is paralysis. Economic momentum slows. Investment dries up. Innovation gets shelved. We’ve seen this before. The 1970s were marked by similar policy missteps: high taxes, excessive regulation, and central bank mistakes. That era gave us stagflation—high inflation, low growth, and rising unemployment. We can’t afford to repeat that mistake. We must instead chart a course that embraces economic freedom, spending restraint, and policy predictability.

Section II: Trump’s First 100 Days—Opportunities and Unknowns
The return of the Trump administration offers both hope and uncertainty.

There’s a clear agenda for tax reform, deregulation, and infrastructure revitalization. However, there are also signs of policy whiplash, particularly in the areas of trade and tariffs. The Trump tax cuts, known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, helped drive growth in the past. But unless extended, much of those tax cuts will expire in 2025.

The state should permanently lower marginal tax rates, maintain full expensing, and index capital gains to inflation. Anything less risks undoing the progress made over the last decade. At the same time, tariffs are once again taking center stage. Whether it’s steel, aluminum, or aggregates, these are taxes on progress. Tariffs don’t punish foreign companies—they punish American builders.

Let’s be clear: you can’t build a strong economy while taxing the materials that make it.

Section III: The Construction Economy—Aggregates, Concrete, and Opportunity
Let’s talk about what you know best: building. The construction sector employs over 8.3 million Americans and generates $2.1 trillion in annual economic activity. Every $1 billion in new construction supports more than 6,000 jobs. Aggregates are the backbone of every road, every foundation, and every bridge. Concrete is the world’s most used construction material—for good reason. It’s durable, sustainable, and indispensable. In Pennsylvania, this industry matters. The state ranks second in the country in crushed stone production. In 2024, it produced nearly 9.6 million tons of sand and gravel, as well as over 8.7 million cubic yards of ready-mix concrete.

However, rising input costs, labor shortages, and tariffs are placing a significant strain on your operations. And when regulations delay projects, it's not just frustrating—it’s expensive. These burdens increase your bids, squeeze your margins, and delay the jobs your workers are ready to do. Imagine if we reversed that. Streamlined permitting. Lower tariffs. Smarter tax policy. Predictable regulatory enforcement. That’s the kind of certainty this industry needs—and it’s the kind of certainty that starts from the bottom up.

Section IV: Pennsylvania’s Fiscal and Economic Reality
Pennsylvania has enormous potential, but its fiscal policies are holding it back. From 2015 to 2024, the state spent and taxed $76.1 billion more than it should have, had it followed population growth plus inflation. In all funds, that number rises to $174.8 billion. That’s over $10,000 per person.

Here’s what that overreach looks like:

• Income tax rate: 3.07% (39th nationally)
• Corporate tax rate: 7.99% (42nd)
• Property taxes: 1.35% of housing value (12th highest)
• State-local tax burden: 10.6% (28th)

And what’s the result?

• Economic performance rank: 44th
• Regulatory policy rank: 37th
• Labor force participation rank: 33rd
• Poverty rate rank: 30th

Compare this with Texas, where I live, not because it’s perfect, but because it shows a different path. Texas has no personal income tax, a constitutional spending limit, and strong in-migration and business formation. Economic activity is one of the highest in the country. Pennsylvania has the resources, the workforce, and the will. But it needs the right policies—ones that trust people, not bureaucracies.

Section V: The Classical Liberal Framework
I don’t put my faith in politicians, whether they wear red or blue. I put my faith in Jesus Christ first, then free people. Classical liberalism isn’t about being moderate—it’s about being principled. It’s about decentralizing power, protecting property rights, and ensuring opportunity through voluntary exchange, not mandates and programs. It’s the philosophy of Adam Smith, of Hayek, of Friedman. It’s the philosophy that built the most prosperous societies in history—and the one we must recommit to today.

Section VI: Closing—Certainty Starts With You
So what now?

We don’t wait for Washington. We don’t wait for Harrisburg. Certainty starts with you. With how you lead your business, your employees, and your community. We choose freedom over fear. Discipline over deficits. Opportunity over dependency. Let’s reject protectionism. Let’s end cronyism. Let’s empower individuals. Let’s choose Friedman over favors. Hayek over hubris. Jefferson over justifications.

Let’s go build—not just roads and bridges—but a country where we truly let people prosper.

Thank you. Let’s get to work.​

Hello everyone,

It’s a pleasure to be with you today. As one who believes strongly in free markets and individual liberty and has served as the chief economist of multiple think tanks and at the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, I’ve come from Texas not with barbecue, as you also have delicious barbecue, but with a recipe for economic prosperity that I hope you’ll find equally savory.

It’s great to visit Kansas and contribute to the fantastic work at the Kansas Policy Institute. My business at Ginn Economic Consulting works with KPI and 14 other think tanks nationwide. In these capacities, I hear of the attention that Kansas receives for its past tax cuts without spending restraint and current efforts for tax relief.

Kansas has been in an economic slow cook for decades, trailing behind national averages in job growth, population increases, and economic output. Much like a poorly tended grill, high taxes, and selective business subsidies have smoked out potential growth, leaving behind more stagnation than sustenance.

Let’s chew over some numbers: From 1979 to 2022, Kansas's job growth limped along at just 53% compared to the national average of 88%. Imagine the vibrancy of having an additional 451,000 jobs in the state—jobs that could have been fostered with more competitive tax policies. Moreover, Kansas has seen a net exodus of nearly 198,000 residents since 2000, driven away by a tax environment as welcoming as a blizzard in May. 

The states with the lowest tax burdens saw an influx of 4.6 million people from domestic migration during the same period, while the high-tax states watched 10.7 million residents pack up and leave. In the most recent IRS data, Kansas lost $2.1 billion in adjusted gross income due to people moving out since 2017.

In May 2024, Kansas's unemployment rate ticked up to 2.9%, a slight increase from 2.8% but a revealing one. The total nonfarm payroll employment saw a marginal uptick by 100 jobs last month. Beneath this weak report, there was more weakness as the private sector lost 300 jobs while the government added 400 jobs. This isn’t job growth; it’s a reshuffle at a high cost to private-sector workers. 

And this is a trend we've seen before. Over the past year, Kansas has seen an overall increase of 24,000 jobs, with the private sector contributing 18,700 and the government sector adding 5,300, or about 20% of the total.

Milton Friedman once quipped, “If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in five years there’d be a shortage of sand.” In Kansas, if you continue to rely on excessive taxing and spending for growth, you will find yourself short on more than just jobs and people but on opportunity that drives prosperity.

During the recent special session, the Legislature passed several measures to attempt to boost the state’s economic prospects. One notable legislative action was passing a $3 billion STAR bond to attract major sports franchises. Investing in sports is like predicting Kansas weather—unpredictable and always exciting. There is potential for economic rain, but you might be in a financial storm without careful budgeting and rigorous oversight. 

While what is seen is the possible construction, new jobs around, and new tax revenue, the unseen is costly. This includes the poor precedence for other wasteful acts by the government, higher taxes on those nearby and over time, and the lack of knowledge about what will happen over the next 30 years to the teams, the community, or other costs that come with government planning.

Moreover, the recent special session saw positive efforts for broad tax relief, with the key being reducing income tax brackets from three to two, which is a step toward a much-needed flat income tax. Starting in tax year 2024, married Kansans filing jointly would have their taxable income taxed at 5.2% up to $46,000 and at 5.58% above that amount. The changes should significantly impact Kansas by reducing the tax burden and unleashing economic growth as people are incentivized to save, invest, and work. However, the effectiveness of these measures will depend heavily on accompanying spending restraint.

Let’s talk about property taxes. Kansas has started the pit on property tax relief, but it’s time to cook it. Tentative tax relief discussions this year hinted at significant cuts, but Kansas should solidify this with a constitutional amendment to limit levy increases. Think of it as putting a leash on a dog prone to running off—you ensure it’s safe and always in sight. The amendment should cap annual increases as low as possible if property taxes increase at all, providing predictability and stability for homeowners and businesses alike.

Regarding income taxes, flattening the income tax would turn Kansas from a flyover state into a destination. This move would simplify the tax code, making it fairer and less of a headache—because the only thing Kansans should worry about rising are the sunflowers. While the Legislature tried it this year, you should keep this as part of the approach next time.

The reason why is easy to see. States with lower tax burdens consistently show superior economic growth trends; between 1998 and 2022, the ten states with the lowest tax burdens averaged 51% growth in private-sector employment, compared to 34% for the states with the highest burdens. Kansas managed a modest 16% growth during this period, ranking 44th.

Kansas is sitting on a $4 billion reserve—it's like having a savings account when you’re deep in credit card debt. You should use this wisely with a responsible budget model that KPI has put forward for years now, allowing spending to grow no more than by population growth plus inflation, preferably by much less to overcome past spending excesses. 

This isn’t just tightening the belt; it’s ensuring you can still afford it in the future. Responsible budgeting ensures fiscal sustainability and prevents the state from falling into the cycles of budget shortfalls and hasty tax hikes that have plagued Kansas in the past. By following this approach, over-collected taxpayer money, called a “surplus,” can be returned by cutting a flat income tax rate to zero as quickly as possible.

Kansas has seen its share of financial missteps, but now is the time for bold action. The legislative decisions made today will determine the state’s economic future. Legislative candidates, you are positioned to lead Kansas into a new era of fiscal responsibility and economic growth. 

The decisions made in the coming years will determine whether Kansas continues along the path of stagnation or redirects toward prosperity. Consider these policy recommendations not just as suggestions but as necessary steps toward securing a thriving economic future for Kansas.

Kansas must also embrace responsible budgeting for these tax cuts to be sustainable. The state should learn from the lesson of excessive spending during the last decade’s troubles, which led to deficits and foolish tax hikes. In fact, the 2025 General Fund budget is 69% higher than in 2017 when Governor Kelly took office, or $3.7 billion higher than inflation over this period. 

Reining in this excessive use of taxpayer money to spend it on only limited roles outlined in the state’s constitution would provide opportunities for strategic budget cuts and increases of less than the rate of population growth plus inflation. This responsible approach helps ensure fiscal sustainability without compromising essential services.

Thank you for your dedication to Kansas and your commitment to principles that enhance not just the economy but also liberty. You can help ensure Kansas becomes a beacon of fiscal responsibility and economic success, where every resident wants to stay and others are eager to join. Roll up your sleeves, sharpen your pencils, and get to work on policies that let Kansans prosper. After all, as Friedman would say, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program"—aim for long-term policies with fewer tradeoffs to support the most opportunities.

​Thank you, and if you’d like to continue this conversation, I invite you to connect with me at [email protected] and subscribe to my newsletter at www.vanceginn.substack.com. Let’s work together along with the great folks at KPI to create a future where Kansans can truly prosper.

It's a pleasure to speak with the Texas Aggregates and Concrete Association again and enjoy the great resort here with my wife and three young kids. While aggregates and concrete may not always be in the spotlight, they are the bedrock of our infrastructure, forming the foundation upon which we build our homes, businesses, and communities.

Reflecting on my journey, I realize how essential the right direction and strong institutions are in shaping our paths. Much like the solid foundation of concrete, institutions give us the stability to build and grow. Like the economy, my life has been a series of peaks and troughs. In my younger years, I grew up in a low-income, single-mother household in South Houston as my dad had epilepsy, and they divorced when I was five years old. I went to private school from K-2 grades, public school from 3-6 grades, and home school from 7-12. Unlike many of you, I took many risks during my teenage years and began playing drums in a band called "Sindrome," living the rockstar life. But a near-fatal car accident in 2002 was my wake-up call, one of several but the one that turned me toward a brighter path. Through this experience, a month in bed with many bumps and bruises, and a lot of prayer, I found my purpose: to help others through my calling to let people prosper.

We find ourselves at a pivotal point in our country and in Texas. The recent elections tell us that there is a clear call for change in the Lone Star State. The upcoming November elections will be another opportunity for the country to steer towards a path of prosperity or continue down a troubling road. As an optimist, I believe in our potential, but I also recognize our country and state's many economic, political, and cultural issues.

Policy Uncertainty and Economic Volatility

At the national level, we face several economic challenges. The Biden administration has been keen on infrastructure spending, which includes the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. While this aims to rejuvenate our infrastructure, it also raises concerns about efficiency and the role of government in these projects, and the fact that we are running deficits higher than that per year with the national debt at nearly $35 trillion and net interest payments of $1 trillion exceeding national defense expenditures of about $860 billion. Excessive government spending, increased regulation, and interventionist policies often lead to inefficiencies and distortions in the market. Milton Friedman, my favorite economist, warned about the dangers of heavy government involvement, advocating instead for free-market solutions that empower individuals and businesses.

Election years heighten policy uncertainty, which can drive economic volatility. Businesses and investors become cautious, waiting to see which policies will prevail. This hesitation can slow economic activity, affecting everything from job creation to investment in new projects. For the aggregates and concrete industry, this means potential delays in infrastructure projects and fluctuations in demand.

Milton Friedman once said, "If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in five years, there’d be a shortage of sand." This sharp but insightful remark underscores the inefficiency that often accompanies government intervention. In his view, infrastructure projects should be managed by private entities with a direct stake in the outcome and can respond more agilely to changes and needs.

Here in Texas, we are not immune to these challenges. Our state is known for its robust economy and low taxes, but we're grappling with excessive government spending and high property taxes. The Texas Comptroller's report highlights how our spending on transportation is around $10 billion annually. While infrastructure is crucial, we must be mindful of how these funds are used to ensure they generate real value for taxpayers.

Weak Labor Market Amid Headlines of Strength

Despite headlines showing strength, the U.S. labor market reveals underlying weaknesses. Nearly half of Americans think we are in a recession, reflecting a disconnect between reported statistics and personal experiences. Real average weekly earnings have declined by nearly 4% since January 2021, squeezing household budgets and diminishing purchasing power. The labor force participation rate remains low at 62.5%, significantly below the February 2020 level. If participation were the same as it was then, the unemployment rate would be closer to 6% rather than the reported 4% today.

Texas, however, leads in job gains, which is a testament to our state's resilient economy. Yet, we must acknowledge that the 25% increase in the two-year state budget last year was excessive. This surge in spending did not provide sufficient property tax relief, which is critical for maintaining economic vitality and keeping Texas attractive for businesses and residents alike. Moreover, we must prioritize universal school choice next year to ensure educational opportunities that meet diverse needs and drive future economic growth.

Election Year Volatility

During election years, the stakes are even higher. Uncertainty about future policies can cause volatility in markets and economic performance. For instance, debates over infrastructure funding, environmental regulations, and tax policies can create an unstable business environment. Companies may delay or cancel projects, affecting the demand for aggregates and concrete. This uncertainty trickles down, impacting jobs, investments, and overall economic health.

Aggregates and concrete are essential for the development and maintenance of our infrastructure. These materials for things like highways and homes are our physical landscape's backbone. However, it's crucial to approach their use smartly. We don't need to resort to industrial policies with high costs and trade-offs, burdening taxpayers. Instead of a top-down approach, which often fails due to bureaucratic inefficiencies, we should consider a bottom-up approach to transportation projects. This includes government projects, public-private partnerships, and private projects.

A significant portion of infrastructure could be managed through private toll roads. While my ideal vision leans heavily on privatization and tax cuts, I recognize that a balanced approach is more realistic in the current environment. Public-private partnerships can bring innovation and efficiency, reducing the burden on taxpayers while still delivering essential infrastructure.

Let me share an example from my work. My research finds that private toll roads can often be built faster and cheaper than public projects. Private companies are directly incentivized to minimize costs and maximize efficiency. For instance, the LBJ Express project in Dallas, a public-private partnership, was completed ahead of schedule and under budget, demonstrating the potential benefits of such collaborations. There is also a need to move to design-build for projects in Texas rather than today's more costly and time-consuming design-bid-build approach.

Additionally, Texas is experiencing significant population growth, with more people moving to the state, increasing the demand for our infrastructure. The Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) is investing in expanding highways and improving ports to accommodate this growth. Projects like the $7.5 billion North Houston Highway Improvement Project aim to address these demands. However, we must ensure that these investments are managed efficiently and effectively.

Role of Institutions and Central Planning

Another key aspect is the role of institutions. Friedrich Hayek, in his book "The Road to Serfdom," cautioned against the overreach of central planning. He emphasized that central planning often leads to inefficiencies and a loss of individual freedoms. His insights are particularly relevant today as we navigate the complexities of modern infrastructure development.

To truly flourish, Texas needs to embrace more free-market capitalism and resist the creeping influence of socialism in our economy. This applies to transportation and beyond. By focusing on the efficient use of resources, reducing regulatory burdens, and fostering competition, we can build a more prosperous future. The bottom-up approach not only ensures better utilization of resources but also empowers local communities to take charge of their development, aligning projects more closely with the actual needs and priorities of the people.

Consider the example of toll roads in other states. Using private toll roads in Virginia has significantly improved traffic flow and reduced congestion in previously bottleneck areas. This model can be replicated in Texas, where traffic congestion is growing, especially in urban areas. By allowing private companies to manage and maintain these roads, we can ensure they are kept in optimal condition without continuously draining public funds.

Furthermore, private toll roads can be a source of innovation. Companies can introduce advanced technologies for traffic management and toll collection, making the entire system more efficient. For example, using electronic toll collection systems in Florida has greatly reduced vehicles' time at toll booths, enhancing the overall travel experience.

However, this doesn't mean we should eliminate public involvement in infrastructure projects. There are instances where government intervention is necessary, especially in projects that may not be immediately profitable but are crucial for public access and economic activity. This is where public-private partnerships come into play, allowing us to leverage the strengths of both sectors.

The government should act as a facilitator rather than a direct manager of projects. By setting clear regulations and standards, it can ensure that private companies operate fairly and efficiently while also protecting the interests of the public. This approach can help us avoid the pitfalls of excessive government control while still reaping the benefits of private sector efficiency.

Paul Krugman and other progressives might argue that significant government intervention is necessary to address market failures and ensure equitable outcomes. They believe that without government oversight, critical infrastructure could suffer from underinvestment, and social inequalities could worsen. While these points are worth considering, history has shown us that excessive government control often leads to inefficiencies, higher costs, and reduced innovation.

Learning from Failures and Future Outlook

My journey from poverty to rockstar to entrepreneurial economist taught me the value of strong institutions and the importance of aligning personal purpose with societal needs. This principle applies to our infrastructure as well. Just as a solid foundation is critical for a stable building, a robust institutional framework is essential for a thriving economy. We must ensure that our policies and investments in infrastructure reflect this understanding.

As we look toward the future, we must remain vigilant against the encroachment of socialist policies that threaten to undermine the free-market principles that have made Texas a beacon of prosperity. Instead, we should champion policies that promote individual liberty, economic freedom, and responsible stewardship of resources.

Failure provides us with valuable lessons, and too often, people want to mitigate this by expanding government intervention, which can be detrimental to our learning and growth.

We are at a critical juncture in our state's history. The recent elections have shown us that Texans are ready for a change. The upcoming November elections present another opportunity to reaffirm our commitment to the principles that have made Texas great. While I am optimistic about our future, we must address the economic, political, and cultural challenges that threaten our way of life.

Election Year Volatility and Policy Uncertainty

One of the most pressing issues is the rise of big government. Across the political spectrum, there is a growing tendency to rely on government intervention to solve problems. This trend is particularly concerning in Texas, where we have traditionally prided ourselves on independence and self-reliance. Many of you might be demanding the government give you handouts or reap the benefits of federal, state, or local spending, but all this comes from taxpayers' pockets. We must try a different approach.

Election year volatility adds another layer of complexity. Businesses and investors are left guessing about the future as policies swing with the political tide. This uncertainty can stall projects, delay investments, and increase costs. The aggregates and concrete industry, heavily reliant on long-term planning and stability, feels these effects acutely.

Conclusion

In conclusion, aggregates and concrete are vital for Texas's growth, but their smart use is paramount. Let's leverage the strengths of the free market, prioritize efficiency, and ensure that our infrastructure investments truly benefit Texans. As we progress, I am eager to collaborate with any of you on projects aligning with these principles. Together, we can build a stronger, more prosperous Texas.

For those interested in further discussions on economic policy and free-market solutions, I invite you to check out my podcast, the Let People Prosper Show on all major platforms, and my Substack newsletter at vanceginn.substack.com, where I delve into these topics in greater detail. You can also visit my website, VanceGinn.com, for more information and resources.

​Thank you for your time and attention. Let's work together to build a future where smart infrastructure investment and strong institutions pave the way for a prosperous Texas.