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The U.S. budget deficit surged this year, surpassing $1 trillion, and we’re not even halfway through the fiscal year! While government spending slightly decreased, it still far outpaced revenue, leading to a deficit of over $307 billion for February. We just saw another federal budget battle in Congress. Despite government shutdown threats, a continuing resolution was passed to fund the government until September. It seems our lawmakers just can’t stick to a spending diet! But why does federal overspending matter? In this special edition of This Week’s Economy, I offer a Federal Spending 101 lesson outlining key principles to tackle Congress’s bad financial habits. We need urgent spending reform to turn the economy around—and it’s time lawmakers start listening! For more insights, visit vanceginn.com and get even greater value with a subscription to my Substack newsletter at vanceginn.substack.com.
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 These remarks were written for my opening remarks on a panel about the "America's New Revolutionary Moment" at the Philadelphia Society meetings in Dallas, Texas on March 23, 2025. I also posted this as an article on X.
It’s fantastic to be here with you all in Dallas, Texas—though I live just north of the People’s Republic of Austin. As a native Texan, let me warmly welcome you to the home of delicious Mexican food, refreshing craft beer, futuristic SpaceX launches, and the rallying cry “Remember the Alamo!” Texas, thankfully, has no personal income tax, a thriving entrepreneurial spirit, and a profound commitment to individual liberty. But let’s be clear—we Texans still have work to do. Texas must lead in spending less, eliminating property taxes, adopting universal ESAs, and scaling back governments that have grown alarmingly close to mimicking Washington, D.C. America wasn’t founded because our ancestors wanted annual fireworks. This country was born out of revolutionary ideas—radical at the time—such as individual liberty, limited government, and free enterprise. Jefferson embodied the spirit behind the quote often attributed to him: “That government is best which governs least.” At the time of our nation’s birth, the founders clearly understood that decentralized governance—federalism—was essential to liberty and prosperity. Today, we face another revolutionary moment, but one that does not require a new set of principles. Instead, our revolution demands a radical recommitment to those timeless founding principles. Unfortunately, modern conservatism sometimes drifts dangerously toward big-government solutions disguised as populism or nationalism. I saw this firsthand as chief economist in the first Trump White House Office of Management and Budget from June 2019 to May 2020, right during the heat of COVID-19. Many “conservatives” in Washington struggled to restrain spending, reject lockdowns, resist cronyism, and champion liberty. That’s why I returned home and resumed work with the Texas Public Policy Foundation, where I worked for about a decade. I then launched my business, Ginn Economic Consulting, and the “Let People Prosper” podcast to provide sound research on policy tradeoffs grounded in classical liberalism. In recent writings, I’ve outlined how the Trump administration can learn from past missteps and more freedom-oriented states like Texas and Florida. The better path forward is constitutional, entrepreneurial, and fundamentally free-market—not nationalist or technocratic. We must confront today’s troubling trends directly. Take trade policy, for example. National conservatives often favor tariffs and industrial planning. But as Milton Friedman wisely cautioned, we shouldn’t blame foreign nations for our own policy failures. Tariffs simply raise costs by hiking taxes on American families' purchases of imported goods, hurting exporters and consumers. I posit that our real challenge isn’t China—it’s our bloated federal government in Washington. Consider government spending. Our national debt now surpasses $36 trillion, equating to over $280,000 per household. This reckless fiscal path isn’t merely irresponsible accounting—it’s an outright war against our children’s economic future. They must also do better at the state level. My “Sustainable Budgeting” initiative advocates capping government spending growth at the rate of population growth plus inflation. This is a simple yet powerful way to align government size with taxpayers’ ability to pay. Excellent resources are also available at Americans for Tax Reform, Club for Growth Foundation, and many state think tanks. Yet, instead of prudent reforms, we increasingly hear calls for new entitlements, family subsidies, and industrial policy. These approaches ignore critical lessons of the 20th century and fail the test of judging policies by outcomes, not intentions. Russell Kirk spoke eloquently of “ordered liberty,” which some interpret today as requiring greater state control to preserve moral or social order. Yet, who decides what is “orderly”? Too frequently, the answer becomes unelected bureaucrats. Friedrich Hayek warned that central planners, convinced they know better than individuals, pave the dangerous road to serfdom. I’d rather trust markets than mandates, and families than federal agencies. These debates are clearly evident in healthcare policy. My forthcoming “Empower Patients Initiative” proposes giving healthcare dollars directly to patients through no-limit health savings accounts, reducing regulatory red tape, deregulating healthcare providers, and letting states tailor their safety nets. This model champions choice, competition, and cost transparency—the very essence of liberty in healthcare. Let’s look to our states for inspiration. Texas and Florida thrive precisely because they embrace freedom—no personal income taxes, booming job markets, and rising migration. In contrast, states like California and New York lose people and opportunities due to heavy taxes and excessive regulation. Federalism, a brilliant innovation from America’s original revolutionary moment, still offers the best pathway forward. As we conclude today, I urge us to resist the tempting calls for central planning, even under conservative labels. Let’s choose Friedman over favors, Hayek over hubris, and Jefferson over justifications for more government control. America’s revolutionary spirit can guide us forward again—this time, starting in the states. Let’s recommit passionately to freedom, limited government, and personal responsibility, ensuring our children inherit a nation as vibrant and prosperous as ever. For more on these ideas and solutions, please visit me at VanceGinn.com. Let’s make this revolutionary moment count—not by creating new bureaucracies, but by dismantling those standing in the way of freedom and prosperity. Let’s truly let people prosper. Thank you. Motorhome Prophecies & Finding Freedom with Carrie Sheffield | Let People Prosper Show Ep. 1403/20/2025 What if your entire childhood was shaped by chaos, instability, and a family dynamic that revolved around control? Carrie Sheffield lived that reality—growing up in a motorhome, grappling with trauma, and searching for truth. In this episode of the Let People Prosper Show, she shares her incredible journey from pain to purpose, as told in her bestselling book, Motorhome Prophecies: A Journey of Healing and Forgiveness.
Carrie’s story is one of resilience, redemption, and faith. She discusses breaking free from generational trauma, questioning long-held beliefs, and choosing personal freedom over fear. If you’ve ever faced adversity or wondered how faith and perseverance can transform a life, this is an episode you don’t want to miss. Check out her work at Independent Women’s Forum. For more insights, visit vanceginn.com and get even greater value with a subscription to my Substack newsletter at vanceginn.substack.com. (0:00) – Carrie’s Journey & Motorhome Prophecies (2:57) – Finding Purpose & Overcoming Trauma (5:58) – Family Dynamics & Breaking Free (9:02) – Questioning Beliefs & Seeking Truth (11:49) – Healing Through Faith & Forgiveness (15:12) – Institutional Failures & Mental Health Reform (22:45) – The Role of Community & Social Capital (28:52) – How Faith Can Transform Mental Health (35:06) – Redemption vs. Rumination in Therapy (41:00) – Technology’s Impact on Mental Health (43:23) – Final Reflections & Defining Your Own Story I join NTD News along with AIER's Peter Earle to discuss the influence tariffs have on your wallet.
 Originally published as an article on X.
Texas’ state government has a $24 billion surplus and a $28.5 billion Rainy Day Fund. Instead of using this over-collected taxpayer money to cut taxes, government spending, and regulations substantially, the 89th Texas Legislature is too often advancing legislation in this session that grows government rather than shrinks it. Gov. Greg Abbott should help steer things toward pro-growth, pro-liberty legislation to improve the state’s economy and fiscal situations along with his legacy. This should include pushing for sustainable budgeting, prioritizing substantial tax relief, creating universal school choice, and reducing regulations. Unfortunately, the current legislative trajectory is not bold enough, and other states are moving faster toward pro-growth reforms. With too much spending, too little tax relief, and too much regulation, Gov. Abbott can—and should—steer this session toward limited government and more prosperity for all Texans. Here’s how. 🚨 A Sustainable Budget: Stop the Spending Explosion. Texas Has the Resources for Big Reforms—But Is Squandering the Opportunity Texas has $194.6 billion available for general spending in 2025-2027, including a $24 billion surplus from the previous budget cycle. The Rainy Day Fund will hit its $28.5 billion cap, meaning excess revenues could be returned to taxpayers instead of more spending. Yet, the proposed total budget is more than $330 billion, marking the largest budget in state history. It will grow by more than 40% over two budget cycles, well beyond population growth plus inflation. Texas must stop growing government at a pace faster than the average taxpayer can afford. What the Legislature Is Doing ❌ Ignoring spending caps—Budget growth over two periods exceeds the sustainable population plus inflation benchmark. ❌ Expanding government programs—Instead of using the surplus to cut taxes, much of it is being appropriated for new spending. What Abbott Should Champion ✅ HJR 212 / HB 5449 – Surplus Buydown & Spending Limits: Caps spending growth with pop+inf and requires surplus funds to reduce tax rates, not more government spending. ✅ HB 3537 / HB 325 / HB 5267 – State and local spending limits that tie government growth to a maximum rate of population growth and inflation. ✅ Reduce the Rainy Day Fund Cap—Excess beyond $28.5 billion should be returned to taxpayers through lower tax rates, including severance and sales taxes, not stockpiled for future government spending. ➡️ Abbott should push for spending less now and strict spending limits that rein in government growth at the state and local levels and ensure every dollar of surplus is used for permanent tax cuts, not new spending. 💰 Tax Relief: Focus on Permanent Rate Reductions. Texas has the opportunity to provide major property and business tax relief, but the current proposals fall short of their potential What the Legislature Is Doing ❌ Only $6.5 billion in tax relief—Despite a $24 billion surplus, only a fraction is going to permanent tax reductions. ❌ SB 4 (Homestead Exemption Increase)—While well-intended, this bill shifts tax burdens rather than reducing tax rates, making it harder to eliminate property taxes in the future. What Abbott Should Champion ✅ HB 8 (School M&O Property Tax Rate Reduction) – Directly lowers property tax rates for all Texans, reducing the largest component of property taxes and moving Texas toward eliminating school property taxes. Also, consider HB 275 / HB 698 / HB 5226 / HJR 64 / HB 5502. ✅ HB 9 (Business Personal Property Tax Relief) – Exempts up to $250,000 in business equipment from property taxes, helping Texas businesses grow. ✅ SB 32 (Business Franchise Tax Relief) – Reduces the franchise tax, but Abbott should push for a long-term plan to eliminate it. ➡️ Abbott should ensure that the entire surplus is used to compress school M&O tax rates (HB 8) and work toward eliminating school district M&O property taxes, with local governments also eliminating their property taxes. 📚 School Choice: Expand, Don’t Just Spend More on the Same System. Texas has a real opportunity to empower parents and students by expanding school choice, but current proposals would instead spend more money on a failing government school monopoly. What the Legislature Is Doing ❌ HB 2 (Massive Public School Spending Increase)—Pumps billions into the same failing government schools while only offering limited school choice. ❌ SB 26 (Teacher Pay Raises Without School Choice Expansion)—More money for public schools without accountability or competition will do little to improve teacher pay or student outcomes, which are better done through competition. What Abbott Should Champion ✅ HB 3 (Education Savings Accounts - ESAs)—Better than SB 2, but should have funding for every student who applies and free of unnecessary restrictions. ✅ Shift taxpayer dollars to parents with ESAs, not failing systems—The more Texas spends on a broken government school monopoly, the harder it becomes to create real competition that drives improvement. ➡️ Abbott should demand a universal school choice bill (HB 3) and ensure state education funding follows students, not failing government schools. 🤖 AI & Innovation: Keep Texas the Leader, Not a Regulated Mess. Texas is a leader in AI and tech innovation, but some legislative proposals could drive investment elsewhere through excessive regulations that help China and other states instead. What the Legislature Is Doing ❌ HB 1709 (TRAIGA: AI Regulation Bill)—Overreaching regulations that add massive compliance costs and could push AI businesses out of Texas. ❌ HB 149 (Revised TRAIGA Bill)—Better than HB 1709 but still contains vague and burdensome AI discrimination and regulatory mandates that would stifle Texas’ ability to lead in tech. What Abbott Should Champion ✅ HB 3808 (Texas AI Freedom Act) – Takes a pro-innovation approach by creating an AI advisory council that will sunset and a learning lab instead of heavy-handed regulations. ✅ Encourage industry-led solutions—Texas should trust businesses and entrepreneurs to develop AI standards rather than impose top-down state mandates. ➡️ Abbott should support HB 3808 and push back against unnecessary AI regulations that could make Texas a less attractive tech hub. 🛑 Stop Expanding Bureaucracy & Banning Markets: Texas should reduce government interference, not expand it. What the Legislature Is Doing ❌ SB 3 (Hemp Ban)—Banning legal hemp and THC products closes small businesses, eliminates safer consumer choices, and empowers drug cartels and dealers. ❌ HB 5 (Dementia Research Institute)—Medical research should be led by universities and private industry, not state government. ❌ SB 6 (Electric Grid Controls) is a dangerous government overreach—Texas must let private energy markets function freely rather than dictating power use. ❌ HB 7 (Water Infrastructure Spending)—A better approach would involve private investment, not more state spending. This is true for the Texas Energy Fund, Texas Nuclear Fund, and other funds outside the spending limit that should not exist because they aren’t roles for a limited government. ❌ SB 22 (Hollywood Film Subsidies)—Texas does not need to subsidize Hollywood—this is classic corporate welfare. What Abbott Should Champion ✅ Veto unnecessary spending bills—Texas should reduce government, not grow it. ✅ Support free-market solutions—Texans should be free to run businesses and access legal markets without government interference. ➡️ Abbott should reject those above, veto wasteful spending, and push for more free-market reforms. 🚀 A Pro-Growth Path Forward for Texas 🔹 Cut spending now and advance spending limits (HJR 212, HB 5449) to control government growth. 🔹 Push for permanent tax cuts (HB 8) but make a larger amount of relief. 🔹 Support less regulation with HB 3808 for AI and other bills that would reduce occupational licensing. 🔹 Create school choice (HB 3) but fully fund it without excessive restrictions. Spend Less, Prosper More! Let People Prosper. |
Vance Ginn, Ph.D.
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