The COVID-19 pandemic has changed our routines, but it doesn’t change the laws of economics. Yet it seems government is in the business of doing something when it really should do nothing, such as the recent proposals by President Biden and Congress to spend more and raise the federal minimum wage in the name of pandemic relief.
These actions would not only make a bad economic situation worse, especially for the ones the policies are intended to help, but they would destroy the unity that the president says he wants.
We’ve already seen the devastation that government action can cause during the pandemic, as the broad U6 unemployment rate remains at an elevated 11.1% and almost 800,000 people are filing initial jobless claims every week. The government shutdowns are an unfolding tragedy, and we won’t know their full extent for years to come.
But, as usual, there’s another attempt to put a patch on the American economy with an unnecessary, poorly crafted monstrosity of a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package, which includes raising the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 per hour by June 2025.
This boondoggle sends taxpayer money to people through checks when real personal income reached a record high in 2020. Its higher unemployment payments will distort incentives to work. And it will bail out profligate state and local governments when they’ve already received nearly three times more in taxpayer funds than their estimated losses.
Collectively, this package could delay the needed reopening of our economy, the only real path to regain Americans’ taken prosperity.
The focus of a package—if it must be done—should be to get the vaccines out as quickly as possible to open America now so that people can regain their prosperity they had before the pandemic. Better yet, a pro-growth approach of spending restraint, tax relief, and deregulation would be a better federal response.
In fact, the latter two measures (tax relief and deregulation) were practiced by the Trump administration and it contributed to records of the highest real median household income and lowest poverty rate in 2019. And while President Trump’s budgets found more fiscal savings than any other president, Congress continued to spend excessively—thereby bankrupting us and our country in the process.
But what’s getting a lot of media attention recently without much consideration of its cost is the Raise the Wage Act that the Democrats in Congress are trying to push through. This arbitrary hike of the federal minimum wage would be a mistake as it would separate us in terms of economic status and further divide us as a nation. That’s not what I would consider as “unity.”
According to a 2019 Pew Research poll, about two-thirds of Americans supported increasing the minimum wage to $15. But at what cost, given that nothing is free?
For example, the Congressional Budget Office recently reported that passing the Raise the Wage Act could mean as many as 2.7 million workers lose their job and earn the real minimum wage of $0. This would also come at the cost of $54 billion more to the national debt, further bankrupting us. And while the number of people lifted up from poverty could be 900,000, many of them will face higher prices, higher taxes, and higher interest rates making it harder for even those lucky enough to not lose their jobs to make ends meet.
But this analysis misses two key points that should not be overlooked: 58.5% of Americans earning the minimum wage are between 16 to 24 years old, and costs of living vary greatly across states, with California being 50% more expensive than Texas.
This means that those who will be hit hardest by raising the minimum wage are those just trying to get their foot on the bottom rung of the economic ladder, and typically have other sources of income. In fact, raising the minimum wage can benefit high-wage, highly skilled people at the expense of low-wage, low-skill people as employers move from labor to capital in their operations. This actually increases income inequality.
And states that have done a good job in keeping the cost of living low, like Texas (due to more pro-growth policies resulting in increased economic freedom) are hit hardest compared with those that don’t, like California. We should let federalism’s system of “laboratories of democracy” continue to prove that people vote with their feet, as the number of Californians moving to Texas increased by 36% in 2018.
America may still be suffering through the chaos of COVID-19, but that doesn’t mean we need more of it. President Biden should give doing nothing a chance, especially his policies that will bankrupt the country and force increased unemployment.

https://www.texaspolicy.com/president-bidens-unity-policy-means-increased-poverty/

Given the economic situation with many unemployed Texans struggling from business closures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and government restrictions and following recent power outages, the Legislature should consider less spending, taxing, and regulating so Texans have more opportunities to prosper.
Invited testimony submitted to the Texas House Committee on Appropriations – S/C on Article II

https://www.texaspolicy.com/opportunities-for-self-sufficiency-dignity-and-prosperity-in-texas/​

Given the economic situation with many unemployed Texans struggling from business closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic and government restrictions and following recent power outages, the Legislature should consider less spending, taxing, and regulating so Texans have more opportunities to prosper.
Invited testimony submitted to the Texas House Committee on Ways & Means

https://www.texaspolicy.com/texas-needs-a-responsible-recovery-agenda/​

​Many Americans are recovering from the economic destruction that started in March 2020 due to shutdowns by state and local governments in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The economy has improved, but the pace has slowed because of increased restrictions by many state governors making it more difficult to regain the tangible prosperity experienced last February.
I highlight data on economic growth and employment and provide pro-growth policy recommendations to help quickly recover.
More on the data ⬇️

Words mean things—and that’s just one of the flaws in Pedro L. Gonzalez’s latest piece in Newsweek, titled “The Conservative Case for a $15 Minimum Wage.”
There’s nothing conservative about the class envy Gonzalez leans so heavily upon. Nor is there anything conservative about his reliance on the left-leaning, union-friendly Economic Policy Institute to downplay the negative effects of an artificial increase in the minimum wage. Finally, it’s simply bizarre to claim that using the power of government to force specific economic outcomes is in any way “conservative.”
Let’s start with the clear (and undisputed) facts. Raising the minimum wage—especially now, in the midst of a government-induced economic slowdown—would devastate small businesses. It would hurt those it is intended to help the most, by eliminating jobs, reducing the hours of those who still have them, and by cutting off the lowest rungs of the ladder to success. (When I say “undisputed,” I mean it—the real question for most economists is whether the tradeoffs are worth it.)
We’ve already seen the devastation that government action can cause during the pandemic, as the broad U6 unemployment rate remains at an elevated 11.1% and almost 800,000 people are filing initial jobless claims every week.
Yet Gonzalez brushes these economic realities aside and begins with exactly the kind of argument you might expect from U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders—a Democratic Socialist, and the furthest thing from a conservative you’ll find in the Senate. It’s class envy—the “CEOs make more than you” argument.
“This is,” he writes, “… the consequence of policies that intentionally greased the wheels of greed.”
It’s workers versus the bosses in Gonzalez’s mind.
“Lawmakers and lobbyists have deliberately guided the ‘Invisible Hand’ to pad the pockets of the very few at the expense of the many,” he writes. “The former receive acclaim as captains of industry while the latter subsidize their bailouts and are told to bootstrap themselves.”
He’s not completely wrong there; but that’s not an argument against free markets. Rather, it’s a damning indictment of the kind of government intervention Gonzalez is calling for. The bailouts are the problem, not the bootstraps.
And that brings us to the second point. For EPI—and by extension, for Gonzalez—the rigged economy shouldn’t be fixed, just re-rigged, with the labor movement as the primary beneficiary. According to its website, EPI believes “A strong, effective labor movement is essential for democracy and to ensure an equitable sharing of income and wealth,” and “Economic policy should focus on improving conditions for working people.”
Yet the tired labor vs. management dichotomy misses what is truly the heart and soul of the U.S. economy—small businesses. Tens of millions of Americans are both, workers and managers. They don’t merely own the means of production, they are the means of production.
Yet millions of those small businesses--nearly a third, in fact—have either closed because of the government-ordered shutdowns or fear they will soon be forced to. A minimum wage increase, advocated by Gonzalez and EPI, would shutter many, many more of them.
This is quite literally government picking winners and losers—something incompatible with conservatism. So is the one-size-fits-all, top-down approach. And that’s my third point: This is in no way a conservative policy position.
The fact is that one size never fits all. That’s especially true with the minimum wage. We know that 58.5% of Americans earning the minimum wage are between 16 to 24 years old. And we know that costs of living vary greatly across states, with California being 50% more expensive than Texas.
There simply is no “conservative case” for a minimum wage increase. Yet a closer look at American Greatness, the website where Pedro Gonzalez serves as assistant editor, seems to indicate that it’s less interested in conservative ideas than in redefining the word.
Look, we know what works. The Trump economy focused on freeing Americans to pursue their own dreams. In February 2020—before the pandemic and the government shutdowns—the U.S. unemployment rate was 3.5% (well below what most economists consider full employment). The rate for the nation in January 2021 was 6.3% after many have dropped out of the labor force.
What we need is a clear path to economic recovery—a recovery based on letting people prosper. And that’s what we at TPPF have outlined in our Responsible Recovery Agenda that’s meant for Texas but is applicable to other states and even D.C. It’s conservative—in the real meaning of the word.

https://www.texaspolicy.com/theres-no-conservative-case-for-hiking-the-minimum-wage/

Texans are ready to return to work.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and forced business shutdowns by state and local government mandates, Texas’s unemployment rate in December sits at a staggering 7.2%, compared to 3.5% the previous year. Not only is unemployment high, but many businesses have failed or are on the verge of failing.
What can we do about it?
TPPF’s Responsible Recovery Agenda would help speed up the recovery so Texans can regain their prosperity through a pro-growth approach of spending less, taxing less, and regulating less. Having state government do less now—while understanding in some areas that will be difficult—is the solution to doing more for Texans tomorrow.
Spend less. Gov. Abbott noted in his recent State of the State speech that “we must balance the state budget without increasing taxes.” So far, this has been the case for the current 2020-21 budget and for the House and Senate versions of the 2022-23 base budget of about $251 billion. This amount is under TPPF’s Conservative Texas Budget of $246.8 billion because $6 billion is for maintaining property tax relief from last session instead of growing government.
Continuing to reduce spending and accepting budgets below this representation of the average taxpayer’s ability to pay (meaning population growth plus inflation) will allow Texas to start making strides toward economic recovery. This should include strengthening the state’s weak spending limit for the long run as would be the case with HB 594 (Krause) and HB 910 (Parker).
Tax less. Although taxes are necessary to fund government programs, they distort and limit economic activity in the private sector. During a time when many Texans are struggling to make ends meet, tax increases must be off the table. In fact, there should be a continued push for tax relief.
While SB 2 last session provided historic reforms to the property tax system, there are already those interested in rolling back those reforms which must be maintained and even improved upon. One way is to clarify the “disaster loophole” that some local governments are using to substantially raise property taxes.
By appropriately limiting spending, more tax relief is possible while continuing the action last session of moving Texas’s tax system more toward an efficient, fair, and pro-growth sales tax system. Movement is afoot in the Legislature to limit state spending so surplus dollars can replace school districts’ maintenance and operations property taxes, which comprise nearly half of total property taxes paid statewide. This could be done through different approaches like HB 958 (Oliverson), HB 59 (Murr), or others on the way.
Another tax to consider cutting is the business franchise tax, often called the margins tax. This tax limits a firm’s ability to hire workers and grow their business from its costly gross receipts-style tax and unnecessary complexity of tax compliance.
Regulate Less. Texas continues to excessively regulate entrepreneurial activity, many of which are unnecessary and harmful to the state’s economic freedom. The state has looked to cut regulations before the COVID-19 pandemic, but much more can be done given what we’ve learned since.
Some occupational licenses and other regulations were suspended during the efforts to relieve the economic burden holding back resources and services during the pandemic. Gov. Abbott recently said, “That is why I am asking the Legislature make permanent some of the regulatory relief that I authorized. This will cut red tape and unleash the full might of the Texas economy.” We agree.
Having unnecessary barriers to earn a living especially hurts those who do not have the time or money to get “certified.” While some regulations make sense, the Texas Legislature should take a look at each of the more than 263,000 restrictive regulations to ensure that each protects Texans and serves its intended purpose. If that’s not the case, then the regulation should be suspended, or better yet, eliminated.
An innovative idea is HB 819 (White) which would create economic zones to waive some regulations and occupational licenses in low-income areas so that people have more chances to flourish. Other bills have been filed to help remove excess barriers limiting opportunity.
Texans’ improved livelihoods through a robust recovery by opening fully and removing governmental obstacles should be a top priority. The Responsible Recovery Agenda is a roadmap that emphasizes how to do this through spending less, taxing less, and regulating less.

https://www.texaspolicy.com/responsible-recovery-agenda-texass-roadmap-to-recovery/

​It feels like there’s hope on the horizon. As Gov. Abbott said in his recent State of the State speech, “With each passing day of more vaccinations and increased immunity, normalcy is returning to Texas.” The Texas economy is recovering and at long last, some normal activity is returning. We’re not out of the woods yet, but we can at least see a clearing ahead.
Yet too many Texans could be left behind.
“The situation in the Houston area is particularly desperate, with almost half of residents struggling to pay basic expenses in the week ending Dec. 7, according to a Census Bureau survey,” Pew reports.
Lawmakers can help, but the help must be the right kind. History shows that our poorly designed welfare system traps too many people in poverty or near-poverty. Economists like me will tell you that people respond to incentives, and the welfare system disincentivizes self-sufficiency.
So, the best response is to unleash opportunities for people to prosper. We can reverse those incentives and show our fellow Texans that they can achieve their American dream.
How? Through what we’re calling the Opportunity Project that provides a path to dignity, self-sufficiency, and prosperity.
Let’s start with more effective training for better jobs.
We can tailor our state’s workforce development efforts more narrowly to the jobs that are out there and the skills that are needed. Texas is a prosperous state with many job opportunities, but a portion of the populace lacks the skills necessary to get and keep these jobs.
But we know what helps. Welfare-to-work programs, with the vital participation of the private sector, can change lives.
Generally speaking, such programs target disadvantaged populations, provide training in a marketable skill in addition to “soft-skills” instruction, and offer wraparound services (such as child care, transportation vouchers, housing assistance, etc.), job placement services, and follow-up services to help graduates stay on a path to success.
One example is the earn-while-you-learn program established by the Texas Federation for Advanced Manufacturing Education (FAME) in San Antonio. The employers in the consortium offer a competitive wage that gives program participants the safety net they need to leave low-paying jobs or welfare. The payoff for employers is a steady stream of well-qualified workers.
Next, let’s lower barriers to entrepreneurship by rolling back restrictive regulations like occupational licensing.
Nationally, nearly 22 percent of jobs require an occupational license. That makes sense for doctors, but many other occupations are questionable at best—such as cosmetologists having to complete 10 times more days of training than EMTs.
And it’s not just the silly licensing rules; many licensing schemes exclude those who have a criminal conviction. We believe in second chances; that should also apply to occupational licensing, especially when the license has no direct relationship with the long-ago crime.
Finally, where we can, we must keep the existing welfare system from unintentionally trapping people in a life of helplessness.
Welfare should be reprioritized to count as “successes” those who move off and stay off it rather than those enrolled. We can streamline and simplify the sign-up process and implement efficiency audits of programs to ensure those Texans who need help receive it, while clearly defining the pathways out of welfare dependency.
Where the system creates a welfare benefits “cliff”—in which families lose benefits arbitrarily or too quickly when they re-enter the workforce—we should demand a smoothed approach that doesn’t disincentivize work.
Of course, a strong and vibrant economy is key to making this work.
Gov. Abbott made this point: “Texas has been ranked the number one state for business for 16 straight years. For the past eight years, we led the nation in economic development, and we have led America in exports for 18 straight years. The Texas model. It inspires entrepreneurs and innovators and attracts job creators from across the entire country.”
Strengthening the Texas Model is the best way to uphold this, with lower taxes (and no personal income tax), fewer unnecessary regulations, and a commitment to limited government. This framework provides more economic freedom and greater opportunity for all Texans.
The COVID-19 pandemic isn’t over, but recovery is on the way. Let’s work to assure every Texan can participate when the economy opens and thereafter.

https://www.texaspolicy.com/opportunity-project-leaving-no-texan-behind/

The Texas economy has continued to recover since the steep downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic and shutdowns by state and local governments in March. The partial reopening of most non-essential businesses has been a key part of that recovery, but the rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations has contributed to increased capacity restrictions that have slowed economic activity.

More on the data and how Texans can get back to work as quickly and safely as possible 
​https://www.texaspolicy.com/texaseconomy/

Today, the Texas Workforce Commission released the state jobs report for Dec. 2020 in which the Texas unemployment rate fell from 8.1% in Nov. 2020 to 7.2%.  

“Today’s jobs report for Texas shows some good news for workers and employers in December as employment increased for the eighth straight month and as the unemployment rate dropped to 7.2%,” said TPPF’s Chief Economist Vance Ginn, Ph.D. “While these gains are welcome, Texas’ labor market remains much weaker than a year ago when there were 384,700 more people employed in the private sector and the unemployment rate was 3.5%. Despite the potential policy challenges for the state’s recovery imposed by the Biden administration, the Texas Legislature looks poised to help with the recovery in their latest budget proposals as soon as the economy opens.” 

https://www.texaspolicy.com/press/texas-jobs-report-shows-improvement-in-unemployment-rate​​

​Today, the Texas House and Senate introduced their versions of the 2022-23 budget.
The Texas Public Policy Foundation’s Chief Economist Vance Ginn, Ph.D. offered the following statement:

“At a time when many Texas families and employers are struggling financially across the state, we are glad to see the Texas Legislature come together to introduce a state budget that protects taxpayers. By maintaining last session’s property tax relief and ensuring the savings does not go to extra spending, the total 2022-23 budget comes in well below the Foundation’s Conservative Texas Budget. It controls spending growth, keeps property taxes lower, doesn’t raise other taxes or tap into the rainy day fund. The state budget is a responsible approach that puts Texans in a better position to recover their lives and livelihoods as soon as the economy is fully open.”
​
To read more about TPPF’s 2022-23 Conservative Texas Budget, please visit:
https://www.texaspolicy.com/2022-23-conservative-texas-budget/

https://www.texaspolicy.com/press/proposed-2022-23-budgets-within-tppfs-conservative-texas-budget​

​Americans’ lives and livelihoods took a hit in spring 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted their routines and how they earn a living as lockdowns by governments in response to the pandemic exacerbated the situation.

Congress has since authorized about $4.5 trillion in aid, which has swelled an unsustainable national debt. Combined with the redistribution of resources from the private sector, the result is a crowding out effect that harms America’s future economic potential and disproportionately hurts those who cannot afford this government overreach.

There is a need for sound policy by governments at every level to support a safe, expedited, and fiscally responsible rebound so Americans have more opportunities to thrive.

https://www.texaspolicy.com/the-ginn-economic-brief/

In this newsletter, I share my thoughts on the recent events in DC, the upcoming legislative session in Texas, the increased harm to families from government lockdowns, and the need for competition.

You can read this newsletter and register to receive it weekly at no charge here: ​vanceginn.substack.com/

Today, Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar released the Biennial Revenue Estimate (BRE) which tells the Legislature the amount of taxpayer dollars available to fund various programs like public safety, education, and health care during the upcoming session which begins Jan. 12.
“Given the COVID-19 pandemic and business shutdowns by state and local governments, the Comptroller’s budget forecast, while better than anticipated, has a great deal of uncertainty,” said Texas Public Policy Foundation Chief Economist Vance Ginn, Ph.D. “While the BRE is well above expectations and the 2020-21 budget will likely end balanced, the Legislature should continue to find savings. At a time when many families are struggling, it is essential that the Legislature maintain conservative fiscal policies, so Texans have the best opportunity to flourish. This can be done by assuring that the budget increases by no more than the maximum threshold of the Conservative Texas Budget, reducing spending where appropriate, cutting taxes, and rolling back regulations as we outlined in the Foundation’s Responsible Recovery Agenda.”

Key Points:

• All funds revenue expected to be $270.5 billion for the 2022-23 biennium.
• The Foundation’s Conservative Texas Budget sets a maximum threshold of $246.8 billion in initial appropriations, which excludes one-time items like COVID-related aid from the baseline budget.
• The Economic Stabilization Fund is expected to have $11.6 billion at the end of the 2022-23 biennium.

Learn more about the Foundation’s Recovery Agenda here:
https://www.texaspolicy.com/press/tppf-publishes-recovery-plan-for-texas

https://www.texaspolicy.com/press/tppf-chief-economist-offers-analysis-of-biennial-review-estimate​

The Texas economy continues recovering since the steep downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic and business shutdowns by state and local governments in spring 2020.  Tailwinds could be strong in 2021 if the government removes restrictions and follows responsible fiscal policy so people are free to live and earn money. 

Read my full newsletter with charts and subscribe here. 

Hello Friend!
As 2020 nears an end, I’d like to start this newsletter a bit different to share some personal things about me that you might not know. We will then get into the many things that have happened since the newsletter last week.
Here are the highlights of my life’s journey so far:

• born on Nov.12, 1981 at Clear Lake Hospital in Texas and raised in the South Houston area;

• battled severe asthma and allergies with multiple hospital visits for asthma and three rounds of allergy shot treatments over time;
• watched my dad have seizures and learned from his optimism and intellect throughout his battle with epilepsy;
• grew up in a single-mother, relatively lower-income household for most of my life after my parents divorced twice before I was 10;

• learned strength and love from my mom who struggled while raising my sister and me and gained wisdom from my grandparents;

• completed K-2 grades at a private school, 3-6 grades at public schools, and 7-12 grades at home school (graduated at 17 yrs old);

• experienced life as a "rockstar" in the band Sindrome, which was a top rock band in Houston, and was a tumultuous period as a young adult (17-20 yrs old);

• flipped at least 6 times as a front passenger in a 2002 Acura RSX after wrecking into the back of an SUV while racing at around 120 mph and then life-flighted to a hospital in Houston with a potential head injury but was released that night (20 yrs old);

• turned closer to God and prayed for His guidance which directed me toward my calling of helping others through His lessons and the tools of economics;

• enjoyed my time at Texas Tech University and learned much in courses, gained many great friends, and led several organizations;

• the unexpected loss of my father from SUDEP when I was 29 yrs old;

• graduated in 2013 with a Ph.D. in economics from TTU after neither parent graduated college (31 yrs old);

• worked as a lecturer at institutions of higher education, as a chief economist at the White House, and now chief economist at TPPF, which is a top think tank in the nation; and

• now at 39 yrs old, I’m blessed to have God’s grace, be married to an inspiring woman, have two amazing boys, have had an experience in Virginia but glad to be back in Texas, and continue living my dreams.

• There’s no way that I could have planned this. The ups and downs. The uncertainty, faith, fear, and love. These events and many more make me the man I am today.

• As 2020 comes to a close, I thank God for these blessings and the courage to overcome many obstacles along the way, including many of them this year.

• I started praying about and choosing a word to act as a guide each year since 2018. My word for 2018 was “prosper,” 2019 was “flourish”, and 2020 is “thrive,” which was perfect.

• My word for 2021 is “serve” because I know that there will be many challenges that come along but as long as I’m serving God and others then the rest will work for my good. What’s your word? (Leave in comments or email me)

• Thank you for your friendship. I hope my testimony can help some know that anyone can reach their goals with God’s favor and one’s endurance. Here’s to a spectacular 2021!

OPEN TEXAS AND AMERICASummary:

• As of December 29, there are 12 Trauma Service Areas (TSA) on the Governor’s list for elevated restrictions that include 56% of Texans. The 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases looks to have plateaued and are 20% above their summer highs while fatalities are 40% below then.
• Available total hospital capacity statewide is near the average of 26% since June.
• Austin area has the lowest rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations as a share of total hospital capacity or staffed inpatient beds while keeping a normal rate of available capacity of 26% since June.
• These data put into question the increased restrictions across the state, mainly on what appears to be flawed forecasting models. Here’s an example.

 

• The 7-day average of new confirmed cases in Texas looks to have plateaued since Dec. 7 at about 12K on Dec. 29, with the highest new daily of 26,990 on Dec. 29—likely from more people congregating over Christmas. The 7-day average of new fatalities in Texas on Dec. 16 (latest data available) was 160—possibly already peaked although more recorded death certificates will be reported.
• 7-day averages of cases remain well above the highs over the summer (12K v 10K) while fatalities remain well below their highs then (250 vs. 150), meaning the case-fatality rate has so far been substantially lower now than during the highs over the summer.
• There remains a relatively high rate of available hospital capacity (I’ve updated this to total hospital capacity from my previous reports to match the Governor’s metric and increased capacity opportunities not represented by staffed inpatient beds) across most of the state’s TSAs with every TSA having at least 16% available—30% available statewide.
• Testing remains on average around 100K per day and the positivity rate remains elevated (17% for new molecular tests and 11% for new antigen tests) but well below the high rates during the summer (25% for new molecular tests and 20% for new antigen tests) though with substantially fewer tests (about 40K during July).
• While debatable, improvements could be from better therapeutics, younger and healthier population infected, better utilization of hospital resources, and Governor Abbott’s more targeted, timely, and temporary policy approach of examining hospitalizations per TSA and sending resources where needed most.

Texas Governor Abbott Metric Overview:

• Per GA’s metric of COVID-19 hospitalizations as a share of total hospital capacity for seven consecutive days, TSAs below 15% can have most businesses expand to 75% capacity, keep state mask mandate, and bars (and others) open to 50% capacity with the approval of the county’s judge.

• 12 of 22 TSAs are reported on the list of further restrictions: A (Amarillo), B (Lubbock), D (Abilene), E (Dallas/Ft. Worth), G (Longview/Tyler), H (Lufkin), I (El Paso), M (Waco), N (Bryan/College Station), P (San Antonio), R (Galveston), and TSA T (Laredo).
• 56% of Texans are at 50% capacity + other restrictions while 44% of Texans are at 75% capacity + other restrictions.
• This CV19-to-capacity metric has been rising recently statewide since mid-Oct. to 17.4%, which is near July’s 17.0% average.

Hospital Overview Statewide:

• COVID-19 hospitalizations up 14.3% (to 11,775 hospitalizations) from 7 days ago and up 24.3% from 14 days ago, the level is above July’s 9,713 average
• Available beds as a share of total hospital capacity up to 30.5%, well above the averages of 23.7% in July and of 26% since June
• Hospital capacity up 2.4% (to 67,495 beds) from 7 days ago and up 4.8% from 14 days ago, the level is well above July’s 56,871 average

TEXAS ECONOMIC AND FISCAL SITUATION
Texas’ Legislative Session Starts Jan. 12: More to come on this soon! I’m looking forward to TPPF’s Policy Orientation on Jan. 13-15 that will be live-streamed, so I’ll be sure to add info about it later.

Read the entire newsletter here: ​https://vanceginn.substack.com/p/fiscal-insanity-dc-disappoints-again

​Hello Friend!
​
I hope you had a blessed Christmas. My family did as we celebrated Jesus’ birth and his eventual death on the cross for our sins. That salvation came at a great cost, yet another example of how nothing is free. We’re now relaxing after a great day playing outside with our boys and hanging out with friends. Those moments are priceless.

What’s not priceless is the latest $908 billion COVID aid bill along with the omnibus that’s combined to be over $2 trillion and appropriately called the “coronabus” given how much pork is in this package. I’ve been calling it “CARES 3.0” because there was the original bill and another bill that added funding to the programs created in the original bill, so this is really the third bill that’s funding many of the same things.

And that’s part of the problem, as it comes with a huge cost and President Trump is correct to hint at vetoing it. However, the President’s reasoning seems to be to increase the amount in checks to individuals from $600 to $2,000, which would push incomes well above where they were before the pandemic and provide income to many individuals who weren’t influenced much if at all from the shutdown. This is likely the case for you and me, as we are able to work from home or have savings to live on for a while to deal with this situation. I get the point of advocating for more in a check to individuals as it appeals to struggling Americans and balances some of the atrocities in this monstrosity of a bill, but that doesn’t make it good policy.

This notes the importance of work flexibility along with saving for a rainy day but also notes the huge cost to those who aren’t in this boat. Unfortunately, too many have and will continue to fall through the cracks of our economic lifeline that should ultimately be improved by moving toward more capitalism and away from socialism. While civil society should be first to help those in need, governments will play a role though hopefully a more limited one as it assists those who can’t be helped otherwise (last resort). This would help improve our bloated, ineffective safety net system that often just expands bureaucracy and helps too many of those the programs were not intended.

Thanks again for reading! I’m truly grateful for you continuing to read this newsletter. As 2020 comes to a close, we have much to accomplish to find opportunities to let people prosper.

If you haven’t signed up for my newsletter yet, please register here at no charge. And follow me on Twitter: @vanceginn.
Have a Happy New Year if I don’t write another newsletter before then, which I may given how things go in D.C. Until then, many blessings to you and yours.
Vance Ginn, Ph.D. | www.vanceginn.com | #LetPeopleProsper

​Are your kids getting the education they need—either in person, or remotely? It might depend on where you live; it should instead be up to you.

Schools shut down last spring. Some reopened in the fall, some did not. Others, like those in New York City, are closing again. Some schools are trying to mix in-person and virtual instruction.

This confusion should be alleviated as much as possible by allowing parents to decide which schooling is best for their kids.

Based on the evidence, it seems that schools can safely keep in-person instruction as they aren’t super-spreaders, and that many students benefit from this kind of instruction. A recent national poll found that more than 50% of parents are comfortable with returning to school. The same poll found that half of parents with a choice selected remote education for their children.

Ultimately, decisions about schooling should happen closest to students, starting with their parents. The COVID-19 shutdowns have shown us the need for school choice—letting parents decide what schooling works best for their children.

Families with means already have more choices, of course. Some have chosen to put their kids in private schools or home school. But other families can’t afford this and must try to make their public school work—while also trying to make ends meet.

For example, virtual instruction usually requires an adult’s care to ensure that a child is able to access instruction and learn. This puts extra pressure on working families—they might have to miss work or pay someone else for childcare.

We know that normal school breaks can lead to widened educational disparities. Continued school shutdowns could also lead to widening racial wealth disparities in America. A McKinsey study reported that the educational level of the average Black or Hispanic student is two years behind the average white student, based on many factors—including place of residence and wealth disparity.

That study also indicates that if in-person instruction doesn’t occur until January 2021 and students receive remote instruction at reduced learning rates (or even no instruction at all), “white students would earn $1,348 a year less (1.6% reduction) over a 40-year working life, [but] the figure is $2,186 a year (3.3% reduction) for Black students and $1,809 (3.0% reduction) for Hispanic ones.”

Continuity in students’ educational experiences are also at the forefront of parents’ concerns.

A recent survey of 600 full-time, public school teachers across the nation showed that 67% of teachers agreed that completion rates of assignments were worse during distance learning than in-person instruction.

The concern is especially high with low-income earners. The Texas Education Agency, for instance, reported a 55.6% drop this spring in progress for online math coursework for low-income families.

Still, for many families, the threat from COVID-19 is more concerning than the potential drawbacks of remote instruction, particularly for students or family members who are immunocompromised. And there are at least some families who have thrived in a remote education setting.

In the end, parents know their situations and concerns best. The choice should be theirs. In-person schooling, remote learning, or some other model should be their call.

The burden shouldn’t lie on parents to be flexible (and accepting of whatever school officials tell them they’ll receive); it’s the school districts that must be flexible—and accountable.

Child development doesn’t stop for COVID-19, or any other disruption. We owe American families the flexibility they need to keep their kids on track. And that should start with more choices for parents rather than top-down mandates by governments.

https://www.texaspolicy.com/schooling-options-are-essential-during-covid/

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​Hello Friend!
Can you believe that Christmas and New Year’s are right around the corner? It’s hard for me to believe.
We put up our Christmas tree early this year to get into the spirit of celebrating Jesus’ birth and the salvation and grace provided to us through a huge price (Nothing is Free), and this spirit has helped drown some of the negativity going on in the media regarding COVID, the election, and more. I have a lot of what I consider uplifting points to share with you below.
It’s important to remember that we live in the most prosperous, most remarkable, and most opportunistic country in the history of man. Sure, there’s much we need to do to improve it because too many have fallen through the cracks, but we have much to be positive about even as the media and many politicians tell us otherwise.
So, get your optimistic cap on and maybe grab your favorite drink so you can imagine me telling you the following story. Enjoy!

Have a blessed weekend and a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year in case I don’t see you or write another newsletter before then. I’m truly thankful for you and for your interest in reading this newsletter. My only request is that you share this newsletter with at least one of your friends and ask them to register. That would be a great gift!
Vance Ginn, Ph.D. | www.vanceginn.com | #LetPeopleProsper

In March 2020, during the early part of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. Congress passed the Families First Coronavirus Response Act and then the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. The “maintenance of effort” (MOE) provisions authorized in the Families First Act and then enhanced by the CARES Act were to provide a 6.2 percentage point increase in the normal share of Medicaid payments provided to states through the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP).

These provisions require that those eligible for Medicaid must be kept on the program up to 90 days after the declaration of a public health emergency for COVID-19 ends whether they age out of an eligibility group, have an increase in income, or other reasons noted by the Kaiser Family Foundation (more info at Medicaid.gov). The Health and Human Services declaration, which is set to expire on January 20, 2021, should not be renewed by the secretary as this enhanced MOE could represent an increased cost to taxpayers to fund more people on Medicaid along with an increased dependence on the program for people not meant to be on it.

https://www.texaspolicy.com/ending-medicaids-enhanced-maintenance-of-effort-provisions/

Many Americans are recovering after the economic collapse that began in March due to the COVID-19 pandemic and shutdowns by state and local governments.

While the strength of that recovery has weakened, a sound policy approach will help support a safe, expedited, and less debt-riddled rebound so Americans have more opportunities to prosper.

https://www.texaspolicy.com/the-ginn-economic-brief/

​Today, the Texas Public Policy Foundation released five papers that together form a responsible strategy for the state’s immediate and long-term economic growth.

“These five approaches make for good economic policy anytime,” said TPPF Chief Economist Vance Ginn, Ph.D. “But they are especially important as the state recovers from government-imposed shutdowns. Together, these strategies will help return Texas to the prosperity we saw before COVID-19 and help get us there fast.”

The Five-Step Strategy is:

1. Pass a Conservative Texas Budget
2. Reduce Government Spending
3. Reduce Regulatory Burdens
4. Reject Increased Taxes
5. Use the Rainy Day Fund Responsibly

“During the shutdown, the state suspended some rules and regulations, proving they weren’t essential for health and safety in the first place,” said Rod Bordelon, TPPF’s Policy Director for the Remember the Taxpayer Campaign. “Instead of waiting for the crisis to end to re-evaluate these regulations, we should repeal them now and review others in an ongoing basis so that Texans aren’t held back by unnecessary restrictions.”

The Responsible Recovery Agenda also stresses that budget writers should avoid seeking additional state revenue through increased fees and taxes.

“Raising taxes is a costly endeavor — even more so in a recession because it distorts behavior at a time when the economy is weak, delaying recovery and leading to even greater economic stress,” said Benjamin Priday, Ph.D., Economist at TPPF. “Legislators should close budget gaps first by strategically employing the Rainy Day Fund and by trying to find ways to reduce spending.

The Responsible Recovery Agenda is a comprehensive approach to addressing the budget challenges Texas faces in the wake of COVID-19 shutdowns while also preserving the success of the Texas Model, which has strengthened the state’s economy.

​For a historical look at the budget and other ways to improve the budget process, the Foundation also released The Real Texas Budget report.