​Vance Ginn sits down with Newsmakers to discuss the battle against inflation and the rising interest rates the Fed is imposing yet again. He touches on major economic benchmarks and explains what the numbers are really showing.

Watch here: https://www.youmaker.com/video/482a32b6-d37b-47bb-b6db-0ed3d975f04f​

​Is the flat income tax revolution underway across the states enough? No, but it must be advanced. 

This extraordinary feat includes four states passing a flat personal income tax in 2022 after only four did over the last century. Now 14 states have or will soon have flat income taxes. But if you consider how the nine states without personal income taxes outperform, on average, the nine states with flat income taxes in economic growth, domestic migration, and nonfarm payroll employment over the last decade, more is necessary. 

While flattening income taxes is important, eliminating them is best. And this should be tied to spending restraint to avoid the infamous Kansas problem of excess spending while cutting taxes.

The five states always with a flat income tax were Massachusetts (1917), Indiana (1965), Michigan (1967), Illinois (1969), and Pennsylvania (1971). The next four states initially with progressive income taxes before improving to a flat income tax were Colorado (1987), Utah (2007), North Carolina (2014), and Kentucky (2019). 

The four states that passed a flat income tax in 2022 were Idaho (starts in 2023), Mississippi (2023), Georgia (2024), and Iowa (2026). After a recent court decision, Arizona will also have a flat income tax in 2023 at the lowest rate in the nation at 2.5%.

This will support greater economic growth as progressive personal income taxes disincentivize people to work and live in those states. This is happening in California, where even its wealthy citizens are fed up with sky-high personal income taxes that will worsen when the top marginal tax rate rises to 14.4% in 2024.

According to the American Legislative Exchange Council’s 15th edition of the Rich States, Poor States report that compares the economic performance of the 50 states, the nine states already with a flat income tax rank mostly in the middle of the pack from 2010 to 2020.

This includes an average overall ranking for those nine states of 24th based upon three key economic variables with average rankings of 23rd in state gross domestic product (GDP), 29th in absolute domestic migration, and 22nd in nonfarm payroll. The highest overall rankings for these states are Utah (2nd) and Colorado (6th), lowest are Illinois (43rd) and Pennsylvania (45th). 

States should seek better outcomes that ultimately help people flourish.

The nine states without a personal income tax are Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming. These states have average rankings in ALEC’s report of 19th overall, 22nd in GDP, 14th in migration, and 21st in jobs. The highest overall rankings are Florida (3rd) and Washington (5th), with Texas (8th) and Tennessee (10th) also in the top 10, and lowest are Wyoming (41st) and Alaska (49th).

Historically, the nine states with the highest personal income tax rates, including California (ranks 19th) and New York (36th), have underperformed in these economic measures and have dire outlooks ranking 48th and 50th, respectively, in ALEC’s report.

Progressive, high-income tax structures produce undesirable outcomes, and states should work toward eliminating personal income taxes. 

Other taxes and policies matter. The Tax Foundation’s latest report on state business tax climates shows how other taxes influence business activity, and thus economic performance. 

States without a personal income tax or lower tax burdens overall rank the highest in business tax climate with Wyoming (1st), South Dakota (2nd), Alaska (3rd), and Florida (4th) leading the way. And those states with the highest personal income rates perform worst with California (48th), New York (49th), and New Jersey (50th) being last.

What many of these states without personal income taxes tend to use to fund their spending are consumption-based taxes. The least burdensome form of taxation tends to be a flat final sales tax with the broadest base and lowest rate possible. 

Whatever you tax, you get less of it. Taxing consumption results in less consumption but more savings, which can support greater capital accumulation and economic growth while taxing the underground economy, such as drug dealers and undocumented workers. 

But the ultimate burden of government is not how much it taxes but how much it spends. Jonathan Williams, who is a co-author of the ALEC report, correctly noted, “There are nine states with no income taxes, and they spend substantially less per capita than states with an income tax.” 

When there’s already heavy headwinds imposed by policymakers in Washington and across many states, it’s time to build on the flat tax revolution by cutting or even freezing state budgets, strengthening state spending limits, and eliminating personal income taxes.

Original post at EconLib.

​The 2024–25 Conservative Texas Budget limits the state’s budget to be passed by the Legislature in 2023 so that the average taxpayer can afford it and historic tax relief can happen.

Key points

• Since the 2015 legislative session, the Texas Legislature has passed four consecutive Conservative Texas Budgets, defined as biennial growth in the total budget less than the rate of population growth plus inflation.
• However, past state budget growth excesses above this rate since the 2004–05 budget show that more restraint is necessary to stop overly burdening taxpayers with higher taxes and fees.
• The Legislature can build on its recent successes by passing a 2024–25 budget that grows spending no more than the rate of population growth plus inflation.
• Reining in spending will ensure a sustainable budget and an opportunity for historic tax relief so that Texans have abundant opportunities to flourish.

Original post at TPPF. 

​In the last two decades, local property taxes in Texas have grown far faster than the average taxpayer’s ability to pay for them. Moreover, high property taxes are aggravating the housing affordability crisis by increasing the overall out-of-pocket cost of keeping a property. Therefore, we propose a buydown plan for property tax relief. Our simulation shows that the state can limit spending and use the resulting surplus state taxes collected to buy down school district maintenance and operations (M&O) property taxes until they are eliminated over the next decade. If, in addition, all local governments in Texas were to also limit spending and use the resulting surplus funds to reduce their property taxes, Texans could have substantial tax relief to mitigate this affordability crisis.
​
Key Points

• Local property taxes in Texas have been growing faster than the average taxpayer’s ability to pay for them.
• This rising burden on Texans has contributed to a housing affordability crisis, especially for those at the lower end of the income ladder.
• Effectively limiting state government spending with the state’s new spending limit and using surplus funds to reduce school district M&O property taxes could provide relief.
• Texans could see substantial relief by combining this buydown approach with other local jurisdictions limiting spending and using their own surplus dollars to reduce their property taxes.

Original publication at TPPF -- Updated January 2023 after publication in December 2022.

T​he latest inflation report reveals that inflation is slowing, but it remains at a 40-year high. 

The stock market rose, as softer-than-expected inflation rate gave investors hope the Federal Reserve may not have to raise its target rate quite as fast. A 7.7-percent increase in prices over the last year shouldn’t make people hopeful. Many Americans can’t afford soaring living expenses, however, and the economy will worsen before there’s any relief. 

Adding to this struggle are inflation-adjusted average weekly earnings, which are down 4 percent over the last year, and have been declining for nearly two years. This deflating of the American Dream is the result of big-government policies, creating too much money chasing too few goods. 

Just the necessity of food is a struggle. Food prices at work and school are up 95 percent. Eggs are up 43 percent, and chicken, 15 percent. Gasoline to drive to the store is up nearly 18 percent and electricity, 14 percent, so even making meals at home can rock the budget.

To cope with less purchasing power, Americans are not only saving less, they’re also accruing credit card debt, to a record high of nearly $1 trillion. Even in states with comparatively low cost of living, like Texas, people with full-time jobs can’t make ends meet for their families and are showing up at food banks for help. 

Unfortunately, the worst is yet to come. 

The Fed’s meager strategy for fighting inflation hasn’t included aggressively cutting its $8.6 trillion balance sheet. The balance sheet is only about 3.8 percent less than its record high in April 2022, after more than doubling during the pandemic.

This overprinting of money affects many markets, as those dollars aren’t evenly distributed across the economy, resulting in distorted price signals. The Federal reserve adding assets to its balance sheet (by buying Treasury debt, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities) kept interest rates artificially low. Those markets are starting to correct, as mortgage rates have risen to 20-year highs of around 7 percent. 

The Fed created the current inflationary situation (too much money), which was fueled by Congress’s deficit spending, and exacerbated by Biden’s overregulation (too few goods and services). 

Now, the false “boom” is busting. Hardworking families and entrepreneurs bear the brunt.

To combat the problem it helped create, the Fed is raising its target federal funds rate, which has grown at the fastest pace since Paul Volcker was Chairman in the early 1980s. Volcker understood that the Fed’s balance sheet mattered most, which seems to be overlooked by the Fed and many economists today. 

The Fed’s hike of 75 basis points on November 2 brought the top of the target range to 4 percent, which was the fourth consecutive 75-basis-point hike, after rates were held at essentially zero for two years. The Fed signaled that it will slow target rate hikes to likely 50 basis points in December, pushing the top rate to 4.5 percent by the end of 2022. This would be the highest rate in 15 years.

The Fed’s attempt to correct elevated inflation comes too late to avert the economic consequences of keeping the target rate too low for too long. As a result, Americans are suffering from persistent inflation, higher interest rates, and a prolonged, deeper economic recession. 

What should be done? We need pro-growth policies.

The executive branch should focus on cutting regulations. Congress should prioritize making the Trump-era tax cuts permanent, cutting the corporate tax rate, and passing spending limits to help balance the budget. The Fed, the source of so much money mischief, should adhere to a monetary rule that will cut its balance sheet as much as possible, hopefully down to nothing.

These pro-growth, liberty-oriented policies will unleash the economic potential of the productive private sector and get people back working again at well-paid jobs, while substantially reducing inflation.

Big-government policies must end before they send us further down the road to serfdom. Our newly elected officials have a responsibility to prioritize fighting inflation, and restoring the American Dream.

Originally posted at AIER. 

​It’s time for Louisiana to join the flat tax revolution. Four states passed a flat personal income tax this year after only four did over the 100 years, bringing the total to 14 states that have or will soon have flat income taxes.

Flattening income taxes provides more opportunities for people to flourish, but eliminating them is best to provide even more prosperity and individual liberty to keep the fruits of your labor. These tax reforms start with spending restraint.

Economic data show that the nine states without a personal income tax outperform, on average, the nine states with flat income taxes in economic growth, domestic migration, and non-farm payroll employment over the last decade.

Georgia (2024), Idaho (2023), Iowa (2026), and Mississippi (2023) passed flat-income taxes this year. Arizona is set to have a flat income tax in 2023 at 2.5%, which will be the lowest rate in the nation.

Through those reforms, these states will have more opportunities to improve the number of well-paid jobs, sectoral growth, and other benefits that advance thriving communities. This contrasts with progressive personal income taxes that disincentivize people from working and living in those states. This is happening in California, where even its wealthy citizens are leaving as personal income taxes soar, and it’s likely to get worse as the top marginal tax rate rises to 14.4% in 2024.

Progressive, high-income tax structures produce undesirable outcomes, and states should work toward eliminating personal income taxes. Of course, other taxes and policies matter. Louisiana took a great step in the right direction by dropping our progressive rates and putting in revenue triggers that will lower them further over time. Yet flattening them to one rate would be the best next step.

According to the Tax Foundation’s recent report, states without a personal income tax or lower tax burdens overall rank the highest in business tax climate, with Wyoming (1st), South Dakota (2nd), Alaska (3rd), and Florida (4th) leading the way. And those states with the highest personal income rates perform worst, with California (48th), New York (49th), and New Jersey (50th) being last.

Louisiana ranks 39th, its best ranking since 2017, after improving three spots from the recent tax reforms. But the state remains near the back of the pack, which could be improved by continuing to cut away at the personal income tax.

What would help fund limited government spending with an improved tax system? The increased economic activity from an improved tax system will help increase tax revenue collections, as the state would move more towards a consumption-based tax system.

The least burdensome form of taxation tends to be a flat final sales tax with the broadest base and lowest rate possible.
Taxing consumption results in less consumption but more savings, which can support greater capital accumulation and economic growth.

The ultimate burden of government is how much it spends. Jonathan Williams, who is a co-author of the ALEC report on economic performance by states, recently said, “There are nine states with no income taxes, and they spend substantially less per capita than states with an income tax.”

Given major headwinds from D.C., it’s time for Louisiana to join the flat tax revolution by strengthening the state spending limit and flattening its personal income taxes until ultimately eliminating them.

Originally published Pelican Institute

Many cities across the nation are facing a fiscal crisis. While pandemic-related problems that were self-induced or otherwise play a part, many of these issues have plagued cities for a long time. A serious cultural shift concerning finances among local governments is critical if people want to flourish in cities.

I recently interviewed Mark Moses who is a municipal government expert and author of the recently published book The Municipal Financial Crisis: A Framework for Understanding and Fixing Government Budgeting. He contends that “many local governments are on track for bankruptcy.” And this downward trajectory can be expected to continue as municipalities fail to restrain their spending and overreach, crowding out opportunities for the private sector to work. 

We’re seeing this play out in places like New York City, where city-funded expenses have been asked to be cut by 3% and on track to be slashed more in response to their recently reported $10 billion deficit.

Moses says that “there’s a lack of economic understanding in lots of municipalities.” This absence of understanding often results in collecting more taxes to fund more “solutions” as a band-aid to the broken system and struggling local finances. As he puts it, “local governments give up trying to balance budget sheets.” 

But failing to assess and address the tangled economic approach that’s led them to a place where more taxes and regulations seem like the only answer leads to long-term issues and a path that’s difficult to leave. 

Local governments must limit their scope and focus on core issues. That means letting new initiatives and departments take a back seat while they get spending under control.

This is difficult, however, especially after the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act that gave $45.6 billion to municipalities, which temporarily and artificially inflated local finances. More money under lousy management is a weak fix. And now, with rising inflation and energy costs, these municipalities are ill-equipped to thrive in a recession that wasn’t helped by the huge bailout package. 

A good start to overcoming these challenges would be to get government out of the way in most cases so that the the private sector can solve key issues, which has proven to be the best antidote for most problems throughout history. 

Overinflating their role instead of sticking to limited governing, such as property rights and a few public goods, is a trap that many cities fall into and that comes at a huge cost. But philanthropic and other private-led solutions tend to be crowded out through higher taxes and regulations when city hall makes promises they can’t fulfill. 

Moses describes this as municipalities “seeing themselves as an end to themselves,” which is why many local governments resist spending limits or find ways around them. 

This is an ongoing issue in Texas which is contributing to an affordability crisis. 

Texas is blessed to have constitutional amendments against state-controlled personal income taxes or property taxes, so all property taxes are local in Texas. While there have been attempts recently by the state to limit their growth, property taxes have increased by 169% in the past 20 years compared with an increase of 104% in the rate of population growth plus inflation. This indicates that property taxes are growing well above the average taxpayer’s ability to pay for them.

Some argue that Texas has high property taxes because it has no personal income taxes. But the reality is that it is really from excessive local government spending. 

For example, Texas has the 6th most burdensome residential property tax according to the Tax Foundation but other states without a personal income tax like Florida and Tennessee rank 26th and 36th, respectively. This is because the latter two states do a better job restraining spending. 

The best way to get budgets and taxes back on a fiscally conservative track is through a strict spending limit that covers the entire budget and grows no more than the rate of population growth plus inflation. This would help cities, and all local governments, stick to just addressing what’s in their purview. 

A city’s scope shouldn’t be evaluated from one council meeting to the next but should be assessed in the long term if its local government hopes to see future success and a prosperous economy. 

The same principles of economic success apply to all government institutions; people flourish where liberty is preserved, and that’s best achieved under limited government whereby politicians’ interventions remain inside their limited scope so that free markets and free people can innovate and thrive.  

Just as we’re witnessing with this recession, there’s always a trade-off to overspending and unbalanced budgets. The sooner local governments realize that and reel in their spending, which is the ultimate burden of government, the sooner financial crises will be averted. ​

Originally published at EconLib

​Key Point: Texas recently leads the way in job creation and economic growth but there’s more to do to help struggling Texans deal with the state’s affordability crisis, especially freezing government spending and moving further to sales taxes.

​Overview: Texas has been a national leader in the economic recovery since the inappropriate social and economic shutdowns that caused a severe recession in Spring 2020. This includes reaching a new record high in total nonfarm employment for the 12th straight month, leading exports of technology products for 20 consecutive years, and being home to 54 of the Fortune 500 companies. While the 87th Texas Legislature in 2021 supported the recovery by passing many pro-growth policies like the nation’s strongest state spending limit, there’s more to do in 2023 to remove barriers placed by state and local governments. Solutions include governments passing responsible budgets and returning surplus tax dollars collected to taxpayers by reducing property taxes until they’re eliminated. Other states are cutting, flattening, and phasing out taxes, so Texas must make bold reforms to support more opportunities to let people prosper, mitigate the affordability crisis, and withstand destructive policies out of D.C.
 
Labor Market: The best path to prosperity is a job, as it helps bring financial self-sufficiency, dignity, hope, and purpose to people so they can earn a living, gain skills, and build social capital. The table below shows the state’s labor market for October 2022. 

​The payroll survey shows that net nonfarm jobs in Texas increased by 49,500 last month, resulting in increases for 29 of the last 30 months bring record-high employment to 13.6 million. Compared with a year ago, total employment was up by 694,200 (+5.4%), which was the fastest growth rate in the nation, with the private sector adding 670,200 jobs (+6.1%) and the government adding 24,000 jobs (+1.2%). The household survey shows that the labor force participation rate is slightly higher than it was in February 2020 but below June 2009 at the trough of the Great Recession. The employment-population ratio is nearly back to where it was in February 2020, and the private sector now employs 600,000 more people. Texans still face challenges with a worse unemployment rate, though historically low, and nonfarm private jobs just recently above its pre-shutdown trend (Figure 1).

Figure 1 compares the ratio of current private employment to pre-shutdown forecast levels in red states and blue states if both chambers of the legislature and the governor are Republican (dark red), Democrat (dark blue), or some combination (lighter colors). The results show a clear distinction between red states and blue states, with the stringency of restrictions by governments during the pandemic along with pro-growth policies before and after the shutdowns playing key roles. Specifically, 22 of the 25 states with the best (highest) ratios are in red-ish states while 13 of the 15 states and D.C. with the worst (lowest) ratios are in blue-ish places.
 
Figure 1

​Figure 1 is informative because only Republican governors, with the exception of Louisiana, ended the supplemental unemployment payments that contributed to some people receiving more than while working before the payments expired. These data indicate a strong relationship between sound policy and more job creation. Overall, multiple indicators should be considered as the unemployment rate is a rather weak signal of the labor market. While the labor force participation rate in Texas exceeds where it was before the shutdowns, and the 4.0% unemployment rate could be full employment, the employment-population ratio is 0.2-percentage point above the pre-shutdown ratio.
 
Economic Growth: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) provided the real gross domestic product (GDP) by state for Q2:2022. 

Texas had the fastest GDP growth of +1.8%—to $1.85 trillion—on an annualized basis (above the -2.6% U.S. average). These followed Texas’ GDP growth declines of -7.0% in Q1:2020 and -28.5% in Q2 during the depths of the recession. GDP rebounded in Q3 and Q4, yet declined overall in 2020 by -2.9% (less than -3.4% decline of U.S. average) but increased by +3.9% in 2021 (below the +5.9% U.S. average). The BEA also reported that personal income in Texas grew at an annualized pace of +9.3% in Q2:2022 (ranked 3rd best and above the +5.8% U.S. average) as job creation and inflated income measures found their way across the economy. 

​Bottom Line: As Texas recovers from the shutdown recession and faces an uncertain future with the U.S. economy having stagflation and a likely recession, Texans need substantial relief to help make ends meet. While the Texas Model was strengthened by the 87th Legislature last year from less government spending, taxing, and regulating, more is needed for limiting government at the state and local levels.
 
Recommendations: In 2023, the Texas Legislature should improve upon its past efforts by:

• Passing pro-growth policies to lower government spending, improve workforce development, remove barriers to work, reform safety nets, start eliminating local property taxes, and enacting school choice.
• Strengthening the Texas Model, which recently ranked as the 4th best in economic freedom, will help Texans better resist D.C.’s overreach and flourish more for generations to come.

​Key Point: Louisiana’s labor market looks okay on the surface but the labor force is 16,613 (-0.8%) below the COVID-related shutdown in February 2020 and private sector employment is 35,900 (-2.3%) below then.

​​Labor Market: A job is the best path to prosperity as work brings dignity, hope, and purpose to people through life-long benefits of earning a living, gaining skills, and building social capital. The table below shows Louisiana’s labor market over time according to the U.S. business cycle until the latest data for October 2022 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

​Data compare the following: 1) June 2009—Dated trough of that U.S. recession, 2) February 2020—Dated peak of the last U.S. expansion, 3) April 2020—Dated trough of the last U.S. recession, and 4) October 2022—Latest data available.

​The payroll survey shows that net total nonfarm jobs in the state decreased by 4,200 jobs last month, bringing this to 60,600 jobs below the pre-shutdown level in February 2020. Private sector employment was down by 3,000 jobs and government employment declined by 1,200 jobs last month. Compared with a year ago, total employment was up by 52,100 (+2.8%) with the private sector adding 52,700 jobs (+3.4%) and the government cutting 600 jobs (-0.2%). The household survey finds that the civilian labor force declined by 6,035 last month and is down 16,613 since February 2020, which results in the labor force participation rate of 58.3% being 0.3-percent point lower than it was in February 2020 but well below June 2009 at the trough of the Great Recession. The employment-population ratio is 1-percentage point above where it was in February 2020, and the private sector employs 38,900 (-2.3%) fewer people than then. While the unemployment rate of 3.3% is substantially lower than the 5.2% rate in February 2020, a broader look at Louisiana’s labor market rather than this weak indicator shows that Louisianans still face challenges, especially compared with neighboring states.
  
Economic Growth: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently provided the real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) for Louisiana and others states. The following table shows how U.S. and Louisiana economies performed since 2020. The steep declines were during the shutdowns in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was when the labor market suffered most. The decline in real GDP annualized growth in Q2:2022 of 3% was the 5th worst in the nation. The BEA also reported that personal income in Louisiana grew at an annualized pace of 5.8% (19th best) in Q2:2022 (tied +5.8% U.S. average). 

​Bottom Line: Louisianans lost jobs in October and continue to feel the effects of the shutdowns in 2020 as many policies are too restrictive to allow more economic growth and prosperity with well-paid jobs. The Fraser Institute recently ranked Louisiana 20th for economic freedom based on 2020 data for government spending, taxes, and labor market regulation. And the Tax Foundation recently ranked the Pelican State as having the 12th worst business tax climate. White the state has improved its tax code recently and lower taxes may happen soon from an expected budget surplus, this lack of economic freedom and poor business tax climate are contributing to a net outmigration of Louisianans to other states over time, which is a drain on the state’s economic potential now and in the future. State and local policymakers should work to reverse this trend by passing pro-growth policies.
 
Recommendations: In 2023, the Louisiana Legislature should provide the state’s comeback story by:

• Passing pro-growth policies that limit government spending, reform and flatten taxes, expand school choice, improve workforce development, remove barriers to work, and reform safety nets.
• Improving the state’s economic situation will come from increasing economic freedom and increasing individual liberty which will help Louisianans better resist D.C.’s overreach—which has resulted in stagflation—and flourish more for generations to come.

​Louisiana has many of the right characteristics for families to flourish. This includes abundant natural resources and thriving petrochemical, oil and gas, and tourism sectors. In fact, New Orleans was recently ranked as the 9th fastest-growing city for 2022 by the American Growth Project. They note that the worker shortages in New Orleans “could indicate the city has even more room to grow in coming years.”

But there’s substantial room for improvement as people and businesses are leaving the state. A big part of that is because of the poor state business tax climate that the Tax Foundation recently ranked as the 12th worst in the country. If it’s too costly to run a business, then employers and workers will go elsewhere.

​This is especially true when it comes to personal income taxes. Louisiana should join the many states in the flat tax revolution to avoid the negative effects this tax has on people’s livelihoods.

This year, four states passed a flat personal income tax, making a soon-to-be total of 14 flat income tax states across the nation. One of them is Louisiana’s neighbor, Mississippi, currently ranked 30th in business tax climate. With a flat income tax, Mississippi's status will improve, but not as much as it could if it also eliminated the personal income tax altogether. Even the improvement of flattening income taxes won't support as much prosperity as eliminating them.

The nine states without personal income taxes, including nearby Texas and Florida, show better economic growth, domestic migration, and non-farm payroll employment when compared to flat-tax states. Uncoincidentally, Florida ranked 4th best and Texas 13th in business tax climate.

High personal income taxes contribute to Louisiana’s northern neighbor, Arkansas, ranking 40th in business tax climate, and the progressive darlings of California and New York ranking 48th and 49th, respectively. Personal income taxes in the business tax climate index rank 25th in Louisiana, 37th in Arkansas, 49th in California, and 50th in New York.

But the marks against Louisiana don't stop there.

The latest edition of the Rich States, Poor States report from the American Legislative Exchange Council, which notes the economic performance of the 50 states based on economic output, migration, and job creation from 2010 to 2020, reveals that Louisiana ranks last.

The report also compares the upcoming economic outlook for all the states across 15 policy variables, which put Louisiana at 20th, still behind Texas (11th) and Florida (8th), but above Mississippi (27th), although that will likely change in the next report given Mississippi's new flat tax policy.

What continues to show up as a contributing factor for Louisiana's lackluster tax policies and economic performance, when compared to its neighboring states, is a hefty burden of personal income taxes. People are fleeing states with high personal income taxes for good reason.

Progressive personal income taxes disincentivize work, as people's hard-earned money, that's already being devalued by the current 40-year high inflation, decreases even more. Naturally, people gravitate toward states where they can keep more of what they make.

What's a state to do for funding once personal income taxes are eliminated?

One poor answer to fund government spending is with higher property taxes. This is a weak spot to the overall tax system in some states without personal income taxes, like Texas, which are a result of excessive local government spending. The better answer that many no personal income tax states primarily depend on for funding is consumption-based taxes.

A flat final sales tax with the broadest base and lowest rate possible is best. Although taxing consumption results in less consumption, the benefit is that people save more, which allows for more capital and economic growth.

If Louisiana hopes to see more economic growth and thriving people in its state, like the recent growth in New Orleans, flattening personal income taxes should be a top priority until their ultimate elimination.

Originally published at The Center Square

​Americans are facing a housing affordability crisis – and Texans are no exception.

Texas families struggle to make ends meet with high inflation, stagnating wages, and rising mortgage rates. Add high property taxes to the equation, and it is not difficult to see why 1-in-2 Texans reported that they were behind on rent or mortgage payments and that eviction or foreclosure in the next two months is likely.

Property tax relief is needed more than ever to help homeowners, renters, and businesses during these challenging times. For this purpose, the Texas Public Policy Foundation proposes a way to cut local property taxes substantially next year, and cut them nearly in half over the next decade.

In Texas, the housing market is cooling as there were three months of supply of homes for sale relative to demand in September 2022, which is the highest since May 2020 after a couple of years of a very tight housing market. This cooling of the housing market resulted from mortgage rates topping 7%, a 20-year high that dramatically raises borrowing costs and monthly payments.

Another contributing factor to the affordability crisis in Texas is high and rising local property taxes.

Texas is blessed to have constitutional bans against a personal income tax and a statewide property tax. But while Texas has a costly gross receipts-style tax called a franchise tax, which should be eliminated, the most burdensome taxes discussed during soccer practices or business events are local property taxes.

These taxes have nearly tripled over the past 20 years. And it’s wrong to think that property taxes are high because there is no personal income tax, as other states like Florida and Tennessee have much lower property tax burdens. The problem is excessive local government spending that requires more taxes.

Property taxes are regressive. The Texas Comptroller’s office estimates that the lowest 20% of income earners will pay 6.9% of their total income in property taxes compared with 1.9% for the highest income quintile in 2023.

Moreover, the Tax Foundation ranks Texas 11th in property tax collections per capita, 6th for its burden on homeowners, and 13th most burdensome to businesses, which is ultimately passed to consumers.

Consequently, property tax relief is a top priority to help relieve some of the housing affordability issues. Reducing property taxes for Texans would keep more money in their pockets to satisfy their desires during a rising affordability crisis.

​To do so, the Foundation proposes eliminating nearly half of total property taxes. The proposal uses state general revenue-related funds to replace the maintenance and operations (M&O) property taxes partially funding independent school districts (ISD), which is about $60 billion per biennium.

Specifically, most, if not all, surplus general revenue-related funds, which the Legislature has the most control over, above the state’s new state spending limit based on the rate of population growth plus inflation would be used to replace the ISD M&O property taxes each period until they’re eliminated.

We calculate that this could happen in a decade. We use the average two-year growth rates over the last decade from 2012 to 2021, given that the state has a biennial budget for general revenue-related funds of 9.3% and a rate of population growth and inflation of 6.7%. We then use a reasonable 90% of this 2.6-percentage points surplus each biennium and half of the latest 2022-23 surplus of $27 billion to find this is achievable while fully funding public schools based on the current state-determined school finance formulas.

With a record $27 billion expected surplus and another $14 billion likely in the state’s rainy day fund, the state has plenty of taxpayer money to fund limited government provisions within the normal taxes collected while returning surplus money to Texans.

This is a historic opportunity to provide substantial property tax relief and more opportunities for businesses to move to Texas without costly incentive deals. The result would be Texas having a more robust economy, more job creation, more investments, and more opportunities to prosper so that Texans can be more able to afford their desired livelihood.

Originally published at The Center Square

​In a desperate attempt to garner public favor before the midterms, President Biden set his sights on a new target to distract Americans from the pressing inflation problem: overdraft fees. Those low-percentage charges issued by banks to customers who use more money than they have in their accounts are apparently dire. 

Biden tweeted: “My Administration is making clear that charging Americans for a bounced check they deposit or an overdrafted bank account isn’t just wrong. It’s illegal.” In the official White House statement, he refers to these charges as “hidden fees,” discounting that bank account holders voluntarily sign off on the possibility of overdraft fees when they open an account. 

Unlike Biden, most people understand that what’s illegal is using someone else’s funds without permission, not issuing a penalty for doing so. 

Eliminating overdraft fees would disempower personal responsibility through government overreach and reduce the opportunity for some to open an account. Charges are a practical price for using an institution’s capital to support money mismanagement, and an underreaction, one could argue, to theft. 

As it turns out, nothing is free, including using the bank’s money when you’ve overspent yours. This is bad enough, as people have begun to think that scarce things are free, but Biden says he isn’t stopping at overdraft fees. 

He’s also going after what he’s branded as “surprise” fees, such as family seating fees issued by airlines, switch fees from internet and cable services, and service fees from concert and sporting venues. 

Notably, he claims that these charges are more menacing than typical add-on fees and that “firms should be free to charge more to add mushrooms to your pizza.” 

So, what’s more menacing about concert venues charging a service fee to cover operational costs than Pizza Hut charging for extra toppings so they can still turn a profit? There isn’t a difference. 

What’s malicious is that Biden wants to penalize businesses for trying to stay profitable in a recession that he’s prolongingby addressing “problems” like these instead of the 40-year high inflation that’s removing purchasing power from consumers and hurting families. 

Biden insists that these “junk fees” are undetectable by consumers and therefore unfair, and that this makes it impossible for people to compare the real costs between service providers. 

Those seeking to promote more government involvement in businesses,almost always undermine individual agency. The reality is that consumers can fight against fees, take their business elsewhere, or choose to pay them if they think it’s worth it. That’s what prices in a free-enterprise system of capitalism are all about: allowing people to improve their lives.

There are always trade-offs in life, and if the Biden administration successfully removes all these fees, we can expect to see another kind of trade-off instituted in its place. 

Nothing scarce is free. Every decision we make gives up something else, which economists call opportunity costs. Politicians too often think they can ignore this fact, but they do so at the peril of the people whom they serve.

This kind of overreach isn’t just insulting to Americans, it’s harmful to a free-market system that operates best with limited government. By convincing people that they’re powerless to manage their money or find the best service provider because they’re helpless against “big scary businesses,” the government creates enough public concern to justify stepping in where they have no business doing so. 

The economy is suffering enough under Biden’s overregulation, Congress’ overspending, and the Fed’s overprinting; the last thing it needs is another barrier to growth and organic competition.

Biden can quit trying to kid the American public that overdraft fees, which make up less than one percent of annual household spending, are the culprit for this lackluster economy. Instead, he should scrap his failed policies and promote free-market solutions that let people prosper.

Originally published at AIER

​Americans are facing a housing affordability crisis—and Texans are no exception.

Texas families struggle to make ends meet with high inflation, stagnating wages, and rising mortgage rates. Add high property taxes to the equation, and it is not difficult to see why 1-in-2 Texans reported that they were behind on rent or mortgage payments and that eviction or foreclosure in the next two months is likely.

Property tax relief is needed more than ever to help homeowners, renters, and businesses during these challenging times. For this purpose, the Foundation proposes a way to cut local property taxes substantially next year, and cut them nearly in half over the next decade.

In Texas, the housing market is cooling as there were three months of supply of homes for sale relative to demand in September 2022, which is the highest since May 2020 after a couple of years of a very tight housing market. This cooling of the housing market resulted from mortgage rates topping 7%, a 20-year high that dramatically raises borrowing costs and monthly payments.

Another contributing factor to the affordability crisis in Texas is high and rising local property taxes.

Texas is blessed to have constitutional bans against a personal income tax and a statewide property tax. But while Texas has a costly gross receipts-style tax called a franchise tax, which should be eliminated, the most burdensome taxes discussed during soccer practices or business events are local property taxes.

These taxes have nearly tripled over the past 20 years. And it’s wrong to think that property taxes are high because there is no personal income tax, as other states like Florida and Tennessee have much lower property tax burdens. The problem is excessive local government spending that requires more taxes.

Property taxes are regressive. The Texas Comptroller’s office estimates that the lowest 20% of income earners will pay 6.9% of their total income in property taxes compared with 1.9% for the highest income quintile in 2023.

Moreover, the Tax Foundation ranks Texas 11th in property tax collections per capita, 6th for its burden on homeowners, and 13th most burdensome to businesses, which is ultimately passed to consumers.

Consequently, property tax relief is a top priority to help relieve some of the housing affordability issues. Reducing property taxes for Texans would keep more money in their pockets to satisfy their desires during a rising affordability crisis.

To do so, the Foundation proposes eliminating nearly half of total property taxes. The proposal uses state general revenue-related funds to replace the maintenance and operations (M&O) property taxes partially funding independent school districts (ISD), which is about $60 billion per biennium.

Specifically, most, if not all, surplus general revenue-related funds, which the Legislature has the most control over, above the state’s new state spending limit based on the rate of population growth plus inflation would be used to replace the ISD M&O property taxes each period until they’re eliminated.

We calculate that this could happen in a decade. We use the average two-year growth rates over the last decade from 2012 to 2021, given that the state has a biennial budget for general revenue-related funds of 9.3% and a rate of population growth and inflation of 6.7%. We then use a reasonable 90% of this 2.6-percentage points surplus each biennium and half of the latest 2022-23 surplus of $27 billion to find this is achievable while fully funding public schools based on the current state-determined school finance formulas.

With a record $27 billion expected surplus and another $14 billion likely in the state’s rainy day fund, the state has plenty of taxpayer money to fund limited government provisions within the normal taxes collected while returning surplus money to Texans.

This is a historic opportunity to provide substantial property tax relief and more opportunities for businesses to move to Texas without costly incentive deals. The result would be Texas having a more robust economy, more job creation, more investments, and more opportunities to prosper so that Texans can be more able to afford their desired livelihood.

Originally posted at TPPF

​Susan, a suburban married mother working one job, peacefully drops her son off at his private school and drives back to her gated community in a Range Rover. Because in addition to her cushy home and vehicle, another thing money can buy is any education for her son. She was able to assess each schooling opportunity to choose the one that best met his unique needs, settling on a private school. He’s thriving and on track to be admitted into a prestigious college that will propel him into his dream career.

Meanwhile, Rachel, an inner-city single mother working two jobs, anxiously drops her daughter off at the bus stop to her district-locked public school. Her daughter has special learning needs that aren’t best suited for a big public school environment, and her falling grades and reading scores make her daughter feel like a failure. Rachel reassures her daughter but knows she’s ultimately being let down by a system that doesn’t suit her. She wishes she could find a better schooling option, but that’s a choice she can’t afford, and it’s her daughter who suffers.

This disparity shows the reality of the current privilege-centered schooling system where wealthier parents have schooling options while budget-strapped parents are trapped at a government-run school in the district. A public school system run by educational bureaucrats with a schooling monopoly does not put students first. And it ultimately disempowers parents and teachers.

The solution to these issues already active in Arizona that Texas and many other states should adopt is school choice.
Despite being known for its business-friendly economy and family-loving culture, Texas lags in educational freedom. Meanwhile, Arizona, since implementing the most expansive school choice policy in the nation this year, received nearly 8,000 more new Empowerment Scholarship Account (ESA) applications as parents jumped on the opportunity to explore educational opportunities for their children.

Rather than funneling taxpayer money for education into government-run schools, school choice redirects those funds to families. Arizona has reimagined school choice in the form of ESAs that supply about $7,000 per student per year. Parents can use the money to fund any school-related expenses, such as private school tuition, homeschool curriculum, tutors, etc.
This approach empowers parents to pursue a more holistic approach to their children’s education rather than being forced to place them in a one-size-fits-all system that varies immensely in quality depending on location, mainly.

Not only are parents empowered with the ability to choose what’s best for their kids, but studies show that school choice positively affects academic outcomes. Students test better and experience overall improvement from a school that fits their unique needs. At the same time, new data on educational progress shows that public school performance has fallen behind even more since the pandemic.

School choice also increases competition, as public schools are more incentivized to improve education for their students by breaking down the monopoly situation (one dominant supplier). And this tends to provide better compensation for teachers who have little negotiating power in states where public schools have a monopsony (one dominant consumer).

So what’s the holdup? Well, for Texas and many other states, politicians in rural communities have pushed back against school choice.

This results from misconception and, in some cases, fear-mongering that school choice somehow defunds public schools, which would be a concern for rural areas where public school is the primary option. But school choice doesn’t take money away - it gives it back to parents and allows them to choose which education services receive it.

High-quality public schools will attract more students and, thereby, more funding. Public schools spend more than $14,000 per student per year in Texas, and outcomes for students and teachers are lacking, so more funding isn’t the answer. If the question is about funding for public schools, then those against school choice are conceding that public schools aren’t able to compete. So, it seems school choice opposition is more about politics and winning votes than what’s best for students, whether a parent is like Rachel or Susan.

The U.S. system of federalism allows for a laboratory of competition in which states can implement new ideas. Arizona is taking full advantage of this liberty and using it to empower its parents, students and teachers with educational freedom.
To remain competitive and among the freest states, the time is now for Texas to enact school choice. Our vote matters this November, so the next session will be when we can say, “It’s for the kids.”

Originally posted at The Center Square

​Today, the Tax Foundation released the 2023 State Business Tax Climate Index. The report ranks all fifty states based on the collective burdens of each state’s corporate income tax, individual income tax, sales tax, unemployment insurance, and property tax.

The results show that spending restraint funded with low rate, broad-based taxes provide the best climate for business activity, which supports more jobs; and we all know that work helps provide people with dignity, purpose, and hope, along with the long-term self-sufficiency that is essential for families to flourish.

The Tax Foundation’s report notes what many entrepreneurs in Louisiana already know: the state’s business tax climate needs improving.

Figure 1 shows that this year the state ranks as the 12th worst among the 50 states, which is an improvement from the 8th worst ranking in the prior year, but still well below where it needs to be to support more in-migration, economic growth, and well-paying jobs. This year’s ranking is influenced by the corporate tax rank of 32nd, individual income tax rank of 25th, sales tax rank of 48th, property tax rank of 23rd, and unemployment insurance tax rank of 6th in the nation.

Compared with nearby states, Louisiana ranked ahead of Arkansas (40th), behind Mississippi (30th), and remained well-below neighboring Texas which improved from the previous report to 13th best in the nation.

The Texas model of relatively less government spending, no personal income tax, relatively low tax burden, and a sensible regulatory system have propelled it to substantial prosperity over time. This helped Texas diversify its economy from being as dependent on oil and gas activity as it was in the 1970’s and 1980’s. Still, Texas ranked behind the more fiscally conservative Florida (4th), who can provide an even better direction for where Louisiana should head if it wants more businesses to thrive in Louisiana.

The Tax Foundation’s report also provides caution of what not to do: don’t be like California (48th), New York (49th), or New Jersey (50th). These states have high government spending, high personal income taxes combined with other tax burdens, and a costly regulatory climate.

Given the upcoming 2023 session in Louisiana, the state legislature has an extraordinary opportunity to learn from the Tax Foundation’s report on how to improve. For Louisiana to provide greater opportunity for entrepreneurs and families to prosper, the business tax climate must improve by limiting spending, reforming and cutting taxes, and reducing regulatory burdens. Doing so will help more Louisianans live the American Dream.

Originally posted at Pelican Institute

​Economics is the new American religion. Disagree with the mainstream narrative surrounding it, and you’re a heathen needing quick conversion. No longer is it seen as a social science requiring unbiased scrutiny: it’s about giving people what they think they want, no matter the cost.

And the cost they take in doing so is a big one: people’s prosperity.

I recently sat down with Dr. Peter Boettke, professor of economics and philosophy at George Mason University, to discuss what needs to happen to reverse the problem of people turning “to politics for a sense of truth,” as he puts it. He explains the problem this way: “When my truth is not being listened to, my only recourse is to impose truth on others who are peddling in falsehood.”

He’s correct. This desperate need to control is what leads to the government being placed on a pedestal as the Almighty solution rather than being viewed as a tool to preserve liberty. And there’s a need to use economics to tradeoffs of proposed solutions. When people aren’t allowed to disagree concerning economics and more policies are pushed on them as gospel, Americans are left with less opportunity for accomplishing extraordinary things.

Instead of getting caught up by culture concerning economics, we need to return to the four pillars as defined by Boettke that substantiate this social science and contain the basis to achieve prosperity.

Pillar One: Truth and Light

The truth is that we live in a world of scarcity. This reality sheds light on the truth that because of scarcity, we must make tradeoffs to attain our goals. For most, this looks like trading your scarce time to work and earn money for scarce goods. Many today argue that not everyone can work or should be required to do so, which leads to petitioning Capitol Hill to pass policies that reduce the need to work.

Lawmakers can pass one policy after another, but that will never change the inherent “dignity of work” as Boettke puts it. And respecting people’s agency gives them dignity.

Pillar Two: Beauty and Awe

We live in a world of spontaneous order. In every century, it’s beautiful and awe-inspiring to see how voluntary activity results in the spontaneous order that leads the way to the formation of global markets through which we thrive today.

To achieve this phenomenon, it’s essential that individuals are empowered to work and contribute to society. Governmental policies that impose economic barriers cannot produce the same orderly result that emerge when people are permitted to achieve their hopes and dreams through a system of free markets and limited government.

By latching onto the cultural ideology that the government and not the individual must work to solve all economic woes, we move further away from personal responsibility and deeper into the crippling dependency mindset. A mindset that convinces people they are powerless instead of possessing the tools required to flourish.

Pillar Three: Hope

Economics gives us hope of changing our circumstances. Through capitalism and entrepreneurship, we can have hope in civil society as the first resort while the government is the last resort in reducing poverty by encouraging long-term self-sufficiency.

This was one of the major downfalls of governments across the country in 2020.

By shutting down the economy and deciding which businesses were essential, small business owners and entrepreneurs were sidelined, leaving them fewer opportunities and less hope of climbing out of the government-imposed economic crisis. And less hope for those locked into their road to serfdom.

Pillar Four: Compassion

Economics at its core takes compassion on the impoverished and disadvantaged, seeking to lift them up. “It’s not about making the wealthy better off but about how we can lift up the poor [so that] the poor get richer even faster than the rich get richer,” Boettke explains.

If people understood economics under these four pillars, rather than viewing it as a list of technicalities with which to police people, more progress would prevail.

Governmental barriers imposed in our lives may be in popular demand but they are not the proposed solution among the American entrepreneurs fueling the economy. As Matt Ridley writes, “Innovation is the child of freedom and the parent of prosperity.”

When seeking economic solutions for the nation, the path forward should be about how best to provide opportunities to let people prosper by removing barriers, respecting individual agency, and allowing hope and compassion to be cultivated in communities. That’s achieved by enhancing and preserving liberty through limited government and a flourishing civil society. Otherwise, we’re destined to fail the lessons of economics.

Originally posted by Econlib

​The latest U.S. Jobs Report for September 2022 may look good, but a peek under the hood shows major weakness in a fragile economy. Things will get worse before they get better. And those most affected by the worsening economy are everyday Americans, small business owners, and entrepreneurs, without whom capitalism’s prosperity crumbles.

Of course, Democrats fearing upcoming election loss are hiding behind the record-low 3.5 percent unemployment rate to ignore the reality that inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings fell by 3 percent over the last year, the 18th consecutive monthly decline. These earnings have risen slower than inflation, essentially after the $1.9 trillion, March 2021 American Rescue Plan that was supposed to “stimulate” the economy. 

Unfortunately, trillions more taxpayer dollars have been appropriated since then, further fueling the fire of money-printing by the Federal Reserve, which is a major cause of 40-year high inflation that won’t soon moderate without a more aggressive tightening policy.

The trickle-down effects of high inflation from money-printing funding excessive deficit-spending are keenly felt by American families, who have experienced an estimated loss in real income per capita of $4,200 since January 2021. And 40 percent more say they may not be able to pay their bills, compared to a year ago. 

Americans are forced to make tradeoffs they should never face.

But with prices for food at home up 13.5 percent, shoppers must choose between eating healthy or paying the bills. Many are choosing less-healthy eating habits, creating health concerns in an already fragile healthcare system dominated by failures from government intervention. Reduced purchasing power has forced other tradeoffs, such as 93 percent of working Americans having a side hustle. 

The dismal state of the nation is squashing people’s potential to prosper. 

In addition to the average working American, businesses are hit hard. GAP, Peloton, Tesla, Microsoft, J.P. Morgan, and countless others have laid off hundreds to thousands of workers as they grapple with the effects of this recession. More importantly, 75 percent of small business owners say inflation is hitting their profit margin and 56 percent don’t see inflation abating until at least summer 2023, forcing them to raise prices, cut overhead costs, and minimize labor hours. 

Unable to compete with big corporations that can keep costs lower, small businesses and entrepreneurs are seriously threatened. If the Fed doesn’t act more aggressively to substantially reduce its bloated $8.8 trillion balance sheet, lowering the high inflation it largely created, Americans will continue to suffer. This economy especially hurts the poor, who are stripped of their dignity without a well-paid job and the ability to afford necessities for their family.

There must be a liberty-friendly, pro-growth approach moving forward, removing government barriers that have crippled the success of capitalism. 

This should include cutting government spending, taxes, and regulations to help quickly balance the budget, to stop fueling the Fed’s destructive policies. Congress should pass rules-based policies of a spending limit with a maximum growth rate of population growth plus inflation to cut bloated government spending, and a monetary policy rule, short of eliminating the Fed. 

At the very least, Republicans should help undo the damage from a reckless government that has added nearly $7 trillion in deficit spending over the last couple of years. Of course, this violates the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010. Last year, the Biden administration waived PAYGO, like the Trump administration inappropriately did in prior years, in pursuance of the American Rescue Plan Act. But with a now evenly divided Senate, Republicans have the power to oppose similar proposals that would drive the nation into deeper debt. 

To pull America away from the grips of a recession and the shackles of inflation, the government must get out of the way of the productive private sector. So long as the government continues egregious progressive policies, the hardworking Americans fueling the economy will be unable to do so, making for a government-dependent and economically unfree status that capitalism, with limited government, once helped them escape.

Originally posted by AIER 

Louisiana Economic Situation October 2022

Key Point: Louisiana’s labor market looks okay on the surface but the working-age population is 12,366 (-0.35%) below pre-shutdowns in February 2020 and private sector employment remains 35,900 (-2.2%) below then. Moreover, the decline in real GDP annualized growth in Q2:2022 of 3% was the 5th worst in the nation.

Labor Market: The best path to prosperity is a job, as work brings dignity, hope, and purpose to people by allowing them to earn a living, gain skills, and build social capital that endures. The table below shows Louisiana’s labor market over time according to the U.S. business cycle until the latest data for September 2022. Net total nonfarm jobs in the state increased by 5,000 last month, resulting in increases for 11 of the last 12 months but remains 56,900 jobs below the pre-shutdown level in February 2020 while the working-age population is down 12,366 since then. Compared with a year ago, total employment was up by 95,600 (+5.2%) with the private sector adding 98,100 jobs (+6.4%) and the government cutting 2,500 jobs (-0.8%). The labor force participation rate of 58.5% is 0.1-percentage point lower than it was in February 2020 but well below June 2009 at the trough of the Great Recession. The employment-population ratio is 1-percentage point below where it was in February 2020, and the private sector employs 35,900 (-2.2%) fewer people than then. Louisianans still face challenges given these latest figures for the labor market and remain well below the pre-shutdown trend.

Economic Growth: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently provided the real gross domestic product (GDP) for Louisiana and others states. The following tells the story of the U.S. and Louisiana economies over the last two and a half years. The steep decline was during the shutdowns in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was when the labor market suffered. The decline in real GDP annualized growth in Q2:2022 of 3% was the 5th worst in the nation. The BEA also reported that personal income in Louisiana grew at an annualized pace of 5.8% (19th best) in Q2:2022 (tied +5.8% U.S. average).

Bottom Line: Louisianans continue to feel the effects of the shutdowns in 2020 and policies that are too restrictive in allowing more economic growth and prosperity with well-paid jobs. This has influenced a net outmigration of Louisianans to other states over time, which is a drain on the state’s economic potential now and in the future. State and local policymakers should work to reverse this trend by passing pro-growth policies following the Pelican Institute’s roadmap for a comeback story.
​
Recommendations: In 2023, the Louisiana Legislature should provide the state’s comeback story by:

• Louisiana’s leaders can strengthen the state’s future by passing pro-growth policies that limit government spending, cut and reform taxes, expand school choice, improve workforce development, and remove barriers to work.
• Improving the state’s economic situation will come from increasing economic freedom, which currently ranks 24th  in the latest report by the Fraser Institute and increasing individual liberty that will help Louisianans better resist D.C.’s overreach—which has resulted in stagflation—and flourish more for generations to come.

Originally posted at Pelican Institute

​he Fraser Institute recently released the 2022 Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) Report, reflecting data and rankings for 2020. The findings show that economic freedom in the U.S. fell to its lowest level since 1975, from 6th place to 7th. Although all countries in the report were negatively affected in terms of economic freedom by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent shutdowns. The U.S. decline is considerable and indicative of pressing problems that will continue to erode our liberty and prosperity if left unresolved.

Thankfully, the problems that put us here also point to the solutions that can propel us forward into prosperity.

Aggressive Shutdowns

During the peak of the pandemic-related shutdowns, the EFW rating fell to its lowest level since 2009, from the depths of the Great Recession.

Entrepreneurs were sidelined, small businesses deemed “non-essential,” and many Americans sent home from work, reducing economic freedom and opportunities to quickly overcome the government-imposed dire situation.

I recently interviewed Dr. Robert Lawson, founding co-author of the EFW report and Clinical Professor at Southern Methodist University’s Bridwell Institute, about these findings.

“The income per capita in the top countries [in the report] is about eight to nine times higher than the lowest-ranking nations,” he explained.

Economic freedom does not significantly affect equality, a common concern among critics, but it does have empirically positive outcomes for prosperity. As Thomas Sowell famously said, “There are no solutions. There are only trade-offs.”

In this case, the temporary health concerns of the public were placed on a pedestal that did not consider long-term prosperity. While vaccines and reopenings may have provided some relief from the pandemic, the massive economic consequences are proving to be much longer and steeper than it seems many policymakers were willing to concede. 

Out-of-Control Government Spending

In just five months, we’ll be three years out from shutdowns and stay-at-home mandates that continue to negatively affect our economy today. The national deficit of 2020 was more than three times what it was in 2019, which was already bloated at $1 trillion due to excessive government spending.

At the time, many were convinced this was necessary for getting us through a public health crisis, and they were discouraged from considering the financial consequences these measures could impose. Couple that with the Federal Reserve’s more than doubling its balance sheet to $9 trillion, simply printing money at this point, and the U.S. is enduring its highest inflation rate since 1982.

And now, the Biden Administration discounts the wisdom history can teach us about inflation and instead opts to endorse new, unproven economic schemes like Modern Monetary Theory, which asserts that the Fed should create more money to fund Congress’ deficit spending, regardless of how it alters inflation.

It’s no wonder, then, that inflation continues to climb, robbing people of their purchasing power. This is theft through inflation.

Change is critical not just for economic output but because “more economic freedom improves indicators of social wellbeing,” as Lawson says. With more purchasing power and fewer impeding regulations, Americans can overcome challenging circumstances through work and long-term self-sufficiency, instead of being dependent on government programs that provide short-term payments. But cultivating this change requires creating trust as a culture in communities.

“In rule-based, highly regulated countries, building up trust is much harder,” says Lawson, who ventured to Venezuela, Cuba, Russia among other countries, speaking with citizens about how the lack of economic freedom affects their lives as research for his book Socialism Sucks. Without social trust, people don’t want to trade. Each new regulation and trade restriction the government passes weakens an individual’s ability to bring about change at ground level.

In addition to improving economic freedom, we need more hope in our public discourse. For nearly three years now, Americans have woken up daily to harrowing messages about how they’re vulnerable and incapable due to a widespread virus, inflation, supply-chain problems, and more. The common gloom-and-doom narrative has become the norm, leaving the nation yearning for optimism. Optimism sets democracy apart from totalitarianism and is desperately needed today.

The truth of the matter, and the hope it provides, is that there is a solution to this crisis: economic freedom. While the next annual EFW report hits in 2021 will likely reveal an even worse situation for economic freedom, a trend will likely continue given how the Biden administration is pursuing big-government policies that are destroying not only economic and individual liberty, but the American Dream itself.

We need a return to the classical liberalism that has advanced people’s livelihoods through capitalism and limited government. Those principles helped set the stage for billions of people to be brought out of extreme poverty, so let’s get back to them.

Originally posted by AIER

Top Stat: Average hourly earnings (inflation-adjusted) down about 3.0% year-over-year
Key Point: The economy will get worse before it gets better because of bad policies out of D.C.

Overview: The shutdown recession from February to April 2020 and subsequent government failures caused major destruction to Americans’ livelihoods, which includes a recession and high inflation. One policy mistake was Congress adding $6.5 trillion in deficit spending since January 2020 to reach the new high of $31.1 trillion in national debt, or more than $247,000 owed per taxpayer. Another mistake is the Federal Reserve monetizing so much debt, creating 40-year-high inflation rates. These policy mistakes have resulted in an artificially inflated boom that’s busting into what will likely be a long, deep recession with high inflation. The failed policies of the Biden administration, Congress, and the Fed must be replaced with a liberty-preserving, free-market, pro-growth approach so there are more opportunities to let people prosper.

Labor Market: Today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a weaker U.S. jobs report for September 2022 than in recent months. The report shows that there were 263,000 net nonfarm jobs added last month, with 288,000 added in the private sector. The official U3 unemployment rate increased slightly to a historically low 3.5%, but challenges remain. These challenges include about a 3% decline in average hourly earnings (inflation-adjusted) over the last year, a 0.3 percentage point lower prime-age (25–54 years old) employment-population ratio at 80.2% than in February 2020, and a 1.1-percentage-point lower labor-force participation rate at 62.3% with at least three million people out of the labor force.

Moreover, since the shutdown recession ended in April 2020, total nonfarm jobs have increased by 22.5 million for an increase of 514,000 since the previous peak in February 2020. About 56% of these total jobs gained were during the Trump administration from April 2020 to January 2021 and 44% of them during the Biden administration thereafter. Private nonfarm jobs have increased by 22.1 million and are now up 1.1 million from the past peak. Similarly, about 6 out of 10 private jobs gained were during the Trump administration.

Adding to the concern is a “zombie economy.” This includes “zombie labor” as many workers are sitting on the sidelines and others are “quiet quitting” while there is a declining number of unfilled jobs than unemployed people. And that demand for labor is likely inflated from many “zombie firms,” which run on debt but are likely to lay off workers as costs of debt rise with interest rate increases. Small businesses slowly adding jobs in recent months and their sentiment remain near a half of a century low are worrying signs.

Economic Growth: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ data below show a comparison of real total gross domestic product(GDP), measured in chained 2012 dollars, and real private GDP, which excludes government consumption expenditures and gross investment.

The shutdown recession contracted at historic annualized rates because of individual responses and government-imposed shutdowns related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, economic activity has had booms and busts because of inappropriately imposed government restrictions in response to the pandemic, even as there is little to no evidence that these restrictions helped. However, they did severely hurt people’s ability to exchange and work.

In 2021, the growth in nominal total GDP, measured in current dollars, was dominated by inflation, which distorts economic activity. The GDP implicit price deflator was up 6.1% for Q4-over-Q4 2021, representing half of the 12.2% increase in nominal total GDP. This inflation measure was up by 9.1% in Q2:2022—the highest since Q1:1981—for an 8.5% increase in nominal total GDP. There were two consecutive declines in real total (and private) GDP, indicating a recession.

This criterion has been used to date every recession since at least 1950. The Atlanta Fed’s early GDPNow projection on October 7, 2022, for real total GDP growth in Q3:2022 was 2.7%, which was a large revision up and the actual real GDP figures will be reported on October 27.

For historical comparison, the last expansion from June 2009 to February 2020 had average annualized growth of 2.3% in real total GDP and 2.8% in real private GDP. The earlier part of the expansion had slower real total GDP growth but had faster real private GDP growth. An explanation for this discrepancy is that deficit-spending in the latter period grew faster, contributing to crowding-out of the productive private sector. With excessive spending bloating the national debt thereafter, especially since the shutdown recession, the Fed has monetized much of the new debt instead of allowing many interest rates to rise to a market-determined rate. This resulted in higher inflation as there has been too much money chasing too few goods as their production has been overregulated and overtaxed. The consumer price index (CPI) is up by 8.3% in August 2022 over the last year—highest rate since January 1982. After adjusting total earnings in the private sector for CPI inflation, real total earnings are flat in August 2022 since February 2020 as inflation has limited people’s purchasing power. Elevated inflation will continue until the Fed more sharply reduces its balance sheet to provide a positive real federal funds rate target.

Just as inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, high deficits and taxes are always and everywhere a spending problem. As the federal debt far exceeds U.S. GDP, and President Biden has proposed an irresponsible FY23 budget, America needs a fiscal rule like the Responsible American Budget (RAB) with a maximum spending limit based on population growth plus inflation. If Congress had followed this approach from 2002 to 2021, the (updated) $17.7 trillion national debt increase would instead have been a $1.1 trillion decrease (i.e., surplus) for a $18.8 trillion swing to the positive that would have reduced the cost to Americans. The Republican Study Committee recently noted the strength of this type of fiscal rule in its FY 2023 “Blueprint to Save America.” And the Federal Reserve should follow a monetary rule.

Bottom Line: Americans are struggling from bad policies out of D.C., which have resulted in a recession with high inflation.

Instead of passing massive spending bills, like passage of the “Inflation Reduction Act” that will result in higher taxes, more inflation, and deeper recession, the path forward should include pro-growth policies. These policies ought to be similar to those that supported historic prosperity from 2017 to 2019 that get government out of the way rather than the progressive policies of more spending, regulating, and taxing. The time is now for limited government with sound fiscal and monetary policy that provides more opportunities for people to work and have more paths out of poverty.

Recommendations:

• Set a pro-growth policy path with less spending, regulating, and taxing at all levels of government.
• Reject new spending packages that America cannot afford nor needs; pass the RAB
• Enact return-to-work policies; impose strict fiscal and monetary rules—with the Fed having a much smaller balance sheet and a much higher federal funds rate target until America finally ends the Fed.

Originally posted at Pelican Institute

NEW ORLEANS— The Pelican Institute for Public Policy, a New Orleans-based free market think tank, has announced the hiring of Dr. Vance Ginn and Jamie Tairov. Ginn will serve as the institute’s chief economist and Tairov as senior policy associate.

“I am thrilled to welcome Vance and Jamie to the Pelican team as we work to write Louisiana’s comeback story,” said Pelican CEO Daniel Erspamer. “The best talent in the country is required to accomplish bold change and ensure everyone in Louisiana has the opportunity to flourish. Vance and Jamie bring nationally recognized policy expertise, research excellence and a deep commitment to winning on behalf of Louisiana families to achieve our mission at this critical time of charting a new path for Louisiana.”

Ginn is a free-market economist. Before joining the Pelican Institute, he served as the chief economist at the Texas Public Policy Foundation and is currently policy director for the Alliance for Opportunity campaign, a multi-state poverty relief initiative featuring Louisiana, Texas and Georgia. In 2019 and 2020, he served as the associate director for economic policy of the Office of Management and Budget at the Executive Office of the U.S. President. He has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, The Washington Post and National Review.

“I’m excited to join the fantastic team at the Pelican Institute and hit the ground running toward providing proven free-market policy solutions that let people prosper,” Ginn said. “There is a historic opportunity in Louisiana to work on budget restraint, tax reform and poverty relief. We want to remove barriers and unleash families in search of a bright future in Louisiana. By working toward limited government, there will be unlimited paths for families to achieve their hopes and dreams, and that is what I hope to foster with the team at the Pelican Institute for all Louisianans.”

Tairov will bring years of Louisiana policy and budgetary expertise to the Pelican Institute and will serve as senior policy associate. Before joining Pelican, she spent many years in various roles at Louisiana State University, where she completed a master’s in public administration. She then worked as a budget analyst for the fiscal division of the House of Representatives. At Pelican, she will be working to advance solutions in the areas of fiscal policy, social safety net, criminal justice and occupational licensure.

“I am so excited to join the Pelican Institute and work to advance proven policies that will give all Louisianans the opportunity to flourish,” Tairov said. “Through proven social safety net and criminal justice reforms, as well as changes to our state’s complex tax code and budgetary systems, we really can write Louisiana’s comeback story.”​

In LPP Episode #10, I talk with Dr. Boettke, who is a professor at George Mason University, about why he chose economics, his books on economics and rules-based policy, COVID, and No Due Date group.

You can find the YouTube video and links to the Apple Podcast and Spotify for this episode in my newsletter here. Please excuse any spelling or grammatical errors as this transcript is from an online converter and it and I may not have caught everything. For those that remain, I take all credit for those errors.

​I hope you'll read, watch, and listen to the episode, and please subscribe to my newsletter and other avenues for more episodes like this one.

With U.S. prices higher than expected in all areas including food, shelter, and gas, the Biden administration’s student debt relief plan is really a “redistribution scheme” that will further fuel inflation, according to Vance Ginn, economist and founder of Ginn Economic Consulting.

The plan is “what I’ve really been calling a redistribution scheme from those who didn’t go to college and don’t have student loans to everyone who has student loans. Only about 33 percent of Americans have graduated with a bachelor’s degree,” Ginn said during a Sept. 14 interview with the NTD TV News Today program.  “This is a huge shift in the amount of money that people are paying and … it also fuels more inflation.”

The Biden-Harris administration, in order to advance their “equity” agenda, released a plan which will cancel $10,000 of debt for people earning less than $125,000, cap monthly payments at five percent of a borrower’s monthly earnings, forgive loan amounts of $12,000 or less after 10 years of payments, and mandate that the federal government cover the unpaid interest for those in the low-income bracket.

President Joe Biden praised the debt relief plan, which he said was designed to help those that don’t have “family wealth,” including black and Hispanic students.

“They don’t own their homes to borrow against to be able to pay for college,” Biden said at a press briefing at the White House on Aug. 25.

When asked if this action was fair to those students who had paid off their student loans, Biden shifted the topic to billionaires.

“Is it fair to people who in fact do not own a multibillion-dollar business if they see one of these guys give them all a tax break? Is that fair? What do you think?” Biden asked.

And while Democrats celebrated the “Inflation Reduction Act” legislation at the White House on Sept. 13,  Ginn criticized the spending bill and the current state of the economy.

“I don’t know how you can celebrate an 8.3 percent [annual] inflation rate and interest rates soaring,” he said.  

However, Biden touted the legislation as being able to reduce the gross national debt of more than $30 trillion by $300 billion.

“This bill will lower the deficit. This bill alone is going to lower the deficit by $300 billion over the next decade,” said Biden during a speech about the new law on Sept. 13 at the White House. “So, I don’t want to hear it anymore about ‘big spending Democrats.’ We spend, but we pay.”

Contrary to what Biden says, Ginn said inflation in large part is caused by congressional overspending, which increases the national debt, leading the Federal Reserve to print more money that goes into circulation, and creating a situation as we see now where there is too much money chasing too few goods.

Ginn said although gas prices have decreased somewhat recently, they are still 25 percent higher than the year-over-year increase and overall inflation is at a 40-year high. In addition, “people’s wages are not keeping up with inflation. In fact, if you adjust for inflation, wages are down 3.4 percent,” he said.

Ginn’s advice to Americans is to save money in order to be prepared for future price increases.

Originally posted at Epoch Times

Frankie Johnson, a college-educated single mother from Washington, D.C., moved to Atlanta to distance herself and daughter from an abusive husband. Without a job or place to live, she sought government assistance for childcare and transitional housing. While she waited for this assistance, she was offered a job paying $70,000.
She turned it down.

Why? Because as much as Frankie needed work, she didn’t want to lose the benefits of housing and childcare when she took the job.

Too often government safety-net programs don’t lift people out of poverty for long because they provide specific resources without growth opportunities or flexibility for recipients. In many cases, individuals struggle without the dignity and stable income of work and the cost of “benefit cliffs,” whereby recipients lose more in assistance than they do in income gained from work, due to varying income thresholds across existing safety-net programs.

Unfortunately, Frankie’s story is all too common. Many people choose to keep the guaranteed payments from taxpayers over the uncertainty of working and losing those payments.

But this tradeoff isn’t the only problem with the current safety-net system.

Safety-net recipients often lack the financial literacy necessary to get out—and stay out—of poverty. Additionally, while many recipients are enrolled in multiple safety-net programs, each program is managed separately, burdening the taxpayer with costly administrative costs. And for a recipient, it can seem like a full-time job keeping up with the paperwork to remain enrolled.

Making matters worse, too many people in poverty, and working families, are struggling from the highest inflation in 40 years. And the handouts of taxpayer funds by the federal government over the last two years artificially drove up savings and kept people not working longer than necessary thereby changing the calculus of whether to work or stay on safety nets.

This is evident in the latest U.S. jobs report for August 2022 which showed that the reported unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.7%, which remains low, but it’s actually much higher as the labor-force participation rate remains well below the pandemic-related shutdowns in 2020. Considering the same pre-shutdown labor-force participation rate, America’s labor force is missing approximately three million workers. Many aren’t looking for work because of generous handouts contributing to the labor shortage problem and reducing their gains from the dignity of work.

With these challenges in the labor market and the effects that the current recession will have on people over time, we must improve our safety-net system for recipients and taxpayers alike.

Americans have already spent about $25 trillion (adjusted for inflation) on more than 80 federal safety-net programs since 1965. While there have been some successes in helping people out of poverty, there is a need for a more effective program that doesn’t just give people fish but teaches them to fish. This is what our new, holistic approach called empowerment accounts (EAs) would do.

EAs would condense and replace overstretched, wasteful safety-net programs (excluding Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, for now) into one consolidated, effective program with funding provided monthly via a debit card tied to a financial app and time-limited to a maximum of one year. To qualify, people would work at least part-time while meeting regularly with a community navigator.

The program also helps teach the Success Sequence, whereby 97% of people aren’t in poverty if they graduate high school, get a full-time job, and marry before having kids. And savings are incentivized by the recipient being able to keep extra funds after the limited program period, which will help to reduce the benefits cliff.

By helping reduce bureaucratic bloat and streamlining payments to recipients instead of waste and other programs, EA recipients would have more flexibility to spend the money on approved items across the current safety-net items and foster financial independence. When implemented, EAs will provide a crucial 21st century reform to our troubled safety-net system and help rein in governmental budgets as people have less need for safety nets because they find a well-paid job and ways to provide for their families.

The improvements to recipients using EAs—incentivizing financial literacy, finding dignity through work, building social capital, and mitigating benefits cliffs—will help Frankie Johnson and others achieve long-term self-sufficiency.

Originally posted at TPPF

​Current safety-net programs too often discourage recipients from achieving long-term self-sufficiency, but a new holistic approach called empowerment accounts would help recipients achieve this with existing resources.

​Key points

• Government safety-net programs too often encourage work-capable recipients to remain dependent upon them, harming the very people they are supposed to help.
• Previous policy solutions to mitigate these perverse incentives have not worked well, demanding a different approach.
• Our proposed new program, called empowerment accounts, is an innovative, improved solution that provides a holistic approach to help recipients find self-sufficiency.
• An empowerment account replaces a complex set of safety-net programs with a simpler, more flexible debit card payment along with greater access to work and social capital.
• Texas and other states could start a pilot program for empowerment accounts for eligible recipients, who would forgo current programs, to support an improved path to long-term self-sufficiency.

Also find at TPPF website.