I hope you enjoy the fantastic 67th Let People Prosper Show episode with TX State Rep. Brian Harrison! Please subscribe to my newsletter if you haven’t already, and subscribe to my podcast wherever you get yours. I would appreciate it if you would also rate and review my podcast! Brian (bio) and I discuss:
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Please subscribe to my newsletter if you haven’t already, and subscribe to my podcast wherever you get yours. You can find direct links to follow my work at the buttons at the end of this post. I would appreciate it if you would also rate and review my podcast! Ben (bio) and I discuss:
Federal and state layouts are vastly outpacing the combined rate of inflation and population growth. The U.S. national debt recently passed $33 trillion, more than 120% of gross domestic product. Left-wing politicians assert that Americans are undertaxed, but the data show that the government spends too much.
Americans for Tax Reform launched the Sustainable Budget Project in September to document the rise in government spending over the past decade. The results are clear: Overspending is the problem. Between 2013 and 2022, aggregate annual spending by the 50 state governments, excluding federal funds, increased 51.7%. Total annual federal spending rose 69.4% during the decade, more than three times as fast as the 21.6% increase in the rate of population growth plus inflation. If government grows faster than this rate, then it is growing faster than what the average taxpayer can afford. Had the federal government limited the growth in spending to a maximum of the population growth rate plus inflation during that decade, in 2022 the federal government would have spent $1.6 trillion less than it did, resulting in at least a $200 billion surplus. If the federal government had done this over the past two decades, the national debt would have increased by less than $500 billion instead of $19 trillion. If state governments had limited spending growth to the rate of population growth plus inflation during the last decade, they would have spent $1.39 trillion in 2022, $344 billion less than the $1.74 trillion they actually spent. Had federal and state governments simply grown no faster than the rate of population growth plus inflation, taxpayers could have been spared at least $2 trillion in taxes and debt in 2022 and trillions of dollars more over time. The U.S. hasn’t needed drastic budget cuts, just slower, more sustainable debt growth. Our project defines each state’s overspending problem by providing a dollar-figure spending ceiling and allowing anyone to see how government spending in a state has grown relative to the rate of population growth plus inflation. It will publish and promote an annual benchmark spending level for every state, which lawmakers must not exceed if they want to keep state spending in check. Limiting state spending to the Sustainable Budget Project benchmark isn’t impossible. Lawmakers in more states are beginning to implement the sorts of structural reforms necessary to slow the rate of government spending to a sustainable clip. During the past decade, Colorado and Texas have demonstrated that this can be done. Colorado spent a cumulative $12.8 billion less over the past decade than what could have been available under the benchmark. State lawmakers could have dramatically cut the state’s individual income tax. Instead, there is a push in Colorado to raise taxes and destroy the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, the state’s constitutional requirement that all tax increases be subject to voter approval and revenue collected in excess of the state spending cap be refunded to taxpayers. Texas spent $16.4 billion less than the benchmark over the past decade, savings that could have been used to eliminate its gross-receipts-style franchise tax and other bad taxes. Rather than continuing to keep state spending in check, Texas lawmakers instead passed the largest state budget in the state’s history this year. Excessive spending at the federal, state and local levels of government deserves more attention. Tax hikes are easy to identify, but there has been no objective, binary metric to determine whether a state government spends too much. By focusing on the rate of population growth plus inflation, the Sustainable Budget Project provides such a standard. Governors and state legislators need to implement reforms and practice restraint to slow the steep upward trajectory of government spending. That lawmakers in large, politically important states have already demonstrated this ability has shown their counterparts in other states and in Washington that sustainable budgeting is possible. With more modest growth in state government spending, lawmakers can lower taxes and Americans can keep more of what they earn. Mr. Norquist is president of Americans for Tax Reform. Mr. Ginn, a senior fellow at ATR, served as chief economist of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, 2019-20. Originally published at Wall Street Journal. This commentary was originally published at The Center Square here.
If you live in Texas, then your property taxes are skyrocketing. This has made housing less affordable, especially for the neediest among us. The Texas Legislature passed what some are calling the “largest property tax cut in Texas history,” but it’s the second largest. Regardless, the amount of lower tax bills will likely be underwhelming and leave voters with a bad taste in their mouths come election time next November. There have been some bright spots, but they’re dimming quickly. Dallas was one place that showed promise. Its city council passed the largest budget in city history, going against Mayor Eric Johnson’s (a Democrat who recently stated he will switch to be a Republican) wishes. He aptly voiced what most Texans are thinking in Dallas and beyond about the perils of big budget increases: “In an environment of such economic uncertainty for our residents and businesses, with inflation and interest rates being where they are, I simply could not vote for a budget that is the largest in the history of the city and that is paid for by raising taxes on our residents and businesses.” This increase will completely override the city passing a one-cent tax rate decrease, making people’s property bills 8 percent higher due to rising property values. Dallas is exhibiting on a smaller scale what occurred at the state level a few months ago. Despite the Texas Legislature passing the state’s second-largest property tax cut of $12.7 billion to reduce school district maintenance and operations (M&O) property taxes earlier this year, half of the property tax burden is imposed by other local governments. Because many localities, like in Dallas, are poised to raise property taxes, there are very few places where taxpayers will see a lower property tax bill despite the statewide tax cut. Or, like in Dallas, many local governments pursuing “cuts” will render it irrelevant with excessive spending. Certainly not what should be expected from such a large state tax relief package. And this is likely to hurt Republicans in the next election as they (wrongly) sell this as the “largest property tax cut in Texas history.” Mayor Johnson has it right that reining in spending is crucial to providing tax relief. When spending outpaces a responsible budget, and Dallas’ has for decades, higher taxes and less economic growth have resulted. This is why the biggest governmental burden is always spending, not taxes. Excessive government spending by primarily blue localities in a sea of red helps explain why Texas has some of the most burdensome property taxes nationwide. But Texas is also running up massive debts for even more spending to get around the requirement to pass a balanced budget. The Lone Star state’s total outstanding local government debt is $280 billion, making its local debt per person third most among the top 10 largest states. Regarding local debt, Texas looks much more like New York and California (largest debts per capita) than its southern counterparts, like Florida, where the debt per person is about half of that in Texas. To get spending, and therefore taxes, under control, Texas needs to adopt a responsible budget at the state and local levels. This responsible budget provides a limit that does not exceed what the average taxpayer can afford to fund, restricting the budget to the maximum rate of population growth plus inflation. Ideally, spending should always be below this fiscal rule, but even meeting that cap could save taxpayers billions of dollars. For instance, had Dallas followed this responsible budget model yearly since 2013, the city would have saved $3.4 billion by 2022. This results in substantially higher property taxes in these localities, with similar results in other localities across the state than otherwise. Implementing this budget rule would also result in substantial surpluses because tax revenues generated from sales taxes, fines, and fees typically increase faster than this rule. Through these surpluses, property taxes could be reduced until they are zero. Cities that do this would create so much competition that other cities would be compelled to use their other current revenue sources to reduce their property taxes, leading to the state having much more competitive property taxes overall. With the most competitive rate being zero. That’s one step. The second step to take Texas to the top is to do the same at the state level. The state legislature recently took two steps back and one step forward by passing its largest budget increase in the state’s history in tandem with its hefty property tax cut. But if they stick to the same fiscal rule or, even better, a “Frozen Budget,” they can use surplus funds generated to buy down school district M&O property tax rates each period until they’re eliminated. This process would also take about a decade for the state to fund 100% of the state’s school finance formulas as intended by the Texas Constitution. While Texas boasts many freedoms, including no personal income tax and a business-friendly climate, its burdensome spending and property taxes reduce opportunities for people to flourish. Immediate fiscal restraint at the state and local levels is required for the Lone Star State to continue thriving by seeking to eliminate property taxes. Texans deserve to stop renting from the government and start owning property. Limiting spending is the catalyst to take us there. And localities passing the no-new-revenue rate that would cover all property taxes collected would be a great path eventually eliminating property taxes to better let people prosper. In 2023, Americans for Tax Reform launched The Sustainable Budget Project, a new venture that monitors state government spending and tracks which states have or have not enacted sustainable budgets.
The Sustainable Budget Project defines a sustainable budget as one that limits the pace of state government spending to lower than the rate of population growth plus inflation, which accounts for the average taxpayer’s ability to pay for government spending.
From 2013 to 2022, the following happened:
There four states that held growth in state funds and all funds below the rate of population growth plus inflation over the last decade, thereby keeping taxes lower than the average taxpayer can afford:
Go to ATR's Sustainable Budget Project to find out the following information:
Originally posted at Americans for Tax Reform. Read the full paper here. Here's the original post by the Pelican Institute. Pelican Institute reform plan would flatten personal and corporate taxes, boost jobs in first year. Baton Rouge — As candidates for Louisiana governor debate the future of the state, a new poll shows Louisiana voters strongly support phasing out the state’s income tax while ushering in fiscal responsibility. Today, the Pelican Institute has released a new tax reform plan that would do just that—transform the state, make it more competitive, pave the way for more and better jobs, and launch Louisiana’s comeback. By a wide margin, 58% of Louisiana voters support phasing out the state income tax (only 20% oppose), and 66% want leaders to prioritize responsible budgeting and limiting the growth of state spending to bring fiscal stability to state government (only 9% oppose). Voters also strongly back education freedom; 62% support giving Louisiana parents the ability to use state funds to select the school of their choice for their child’s education (only 25% oppose). The poll, which was conducted by Cor Strategies in partnership with the Pelican Institute, can be seen here. In Louisiana’s Comeback: A Tax Reform for Our Brighter Future, the Pelican Institute identifies the state’s significant tax problems and proposes a path to set the state in a brighter direction, including flattening the personal and corporate income taxes to 3.5% rates, reducing the number of tax preferences, eliminating the corporate franchise tax and the inventory tax, and reforming the budget to limit the growth of spending, among other changes. “If we are to write Louisiana’s comeback story, we first have to get our fiscal house in order and fix our broken tax code that has, for far too long, landed Louisiana at the bottom of every good list and the top of every bad list,” said Daniel Erspamer, Chief Executive Officer of the Pelican Institute. “Louisiana families are suffering, and too many of our best and brightest are leaving the state to find opportunity elsewhere. It’s time to embrace a bold vision for tax reform proven to bring jobs and opportunity – not to mention our kids and grandkids – back to our state.” Louisiana suffers under a tax system that is brutally punishing for families and businesses. It is painfully progressive, thereby increasing tax rates as more income is earned—and that disincentivizes greater earnings, reduces productivity, and slows economic growth. Meanwhile, tax preferences create exemptions and deductions that make compliance costly, pick winners and losers, and narrow the tax base. That, in turn, requires an even higher tax rate to collect needed revenue for funding limited government. On top of that, Louisiana’s taxes on businesses are particularly burdensome, including a triple taxation on profit, investment, and inventory, that together stifle economic growth. The Pelican Institute’s tax plan solves these problems with a proposal that will kickstart the economy into immediate growth and increase the number of available jobs in the state in the first year. The plan is the latest part of the Pelican Institute’s Comeback Agenda released in March of this year, which lays out a series of policies critical to the state’s future, including tax and budget reform, guaranteeing universal education freedom, enhancing public safety, and reducing regulatory barriers to work. A two-page guide to the reform can be read below and a one-pager below that. Overview
Debt A recent report by the Texas Bond Review Board notes that Texas’ total outstanding local government debt is $280 billion, resulting in debt per capita of $8,869. This puts Texas’ local debt per capita in third place of the largest 10 states, behind only New York ($10,788) and California ($9,621), and nearly twice as high as in Florida ($4,753) (Figure 1). The following figures show the Texas Comptroller’s data for nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) outstanding general obligation (GO) debt for four of the largest cities in Texas (Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio). Each of them shows increased GO debt per capita from 2011 to 2020 in nominal and real amounts. But these amounts per capita show some differences.
The unsustainable deficit accumulation across many of Texas’ local governments reflects irresponsible spending. Economist Michael Munger called this “Deficits Are Future Taxes” (DAFT), meaning, increased debt signals a current spending issue and a future taxation problem for the next generations. This is a significant challenge for the state’s future and drives up property taxes higher than otherwise. Spending My analysis in June 2022 found that Texas’ four major cities have exceeded a responsible city budget for years, contributing to higher taxes and debt. This responsible budget sets a maximum threshold based on the average taxpayer’s ability to pay for it, which is best represented by a fiscal rule of a spending limit with the rate of population growth plus inflation. Of course, this growth is a maximum as the budget really should be frozen or even cut for most governments given their spending excesses over time. Truth in Accounting defines the local taxpayer burden as “the approximate dollar amount that would be required of each taxpayer in order to pay off all of a government’s liabilities today. It is calculated by dividing the ‘money needed to pay bills’ by the estimated number of taxpayers in the state or city,” demonstrating the depth of debt.
When local governments want to spend more given their balanced budget requirements, they must raise taxes, and they primarily raise property taxes. Tax Revenue The Texas Comptroller reports that property taxes are the biggest revenue source for local governments. Here are the current total property tax rates for these large cities:
According to the Tax Foundation, Texas currently has the sixth-highest property tax burden on those with a home in the country (Figure 10) Although the Lone Star State has no income tax, its substantial property tax burden increases because of excessive local government spending increases in recent decades has burdened renters and holders of a home, reducing the state’s affordability. The Tax Foundation’s state business tax climate ranks Texas 38th out of 50 for the burden of property taxes. The Texas Legislature recently passed and Governor Greg Abbott signed Senate Bill 2 with $12.7 billion in property tax relief. This package includes reducing the school district maintenance and operations (M&O) property taxes by 10.7 cents per $100 valuation. It also includes raising the homestead exemption for school district property taxes by $60,000 to $100,000. However, this package should have been much larger, as there were $33 billion in surplus funds available and tens of billions of dollars more available, leaving plenty of taxpayer money to return. The property tax bills provided further complicate the tax system and will not result in as much relief as some are advertising. The best approach was to reduce school district M&O property tax rates with all the relief provided. This should have been at least $21 billion for a reduction of 25 cents per $100 valuation. This would have provided the largest property tax cut in Texas history (Figure 11) instead of the second largest because of the largest spending increase in the state’s history. Recommendations
For the state to stay competitive and improve the future for Texans, Texas should seek to reform the largest hindrances to its economic flourishing: government spending and property taxes.
Conclusion The ultimate burden of government is not how much it taxes, but how much it spends. This is true at the national, state, and local levels. Texas boasts many metrics of economic freedom, including no personal income taxes, less burdensome regulations, and relatively less government spending. Recent increases in these areas hinder opportunities to prosper. Immediate policy changes to state and local budgeting that will eliminate property taxes, increase transparency for budgets, debts, and taxes, and strengthen their fiscal situation will help Texas better support prosperity for Texans today and for generations to come. Moreover, this will finally give Texans their God-given right to own property instead of renting from the government forever. Stop renting, start owning! Originally published with links to all sources at Texans for Fiscal Responsibility. Fitch Ratings downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA+ because they expect fiscal deterioration over the next few years. While the diagnosis seems delayed, they’re right. Irresponsible bipartisan spending for decades is the culprit. With the national debt approaching $33 trillion, the American economy appears unlikely to recover its AAA status any time soon.
Republicans and Democrats have consistently increased spending more than tax revenues, leading to massive debt and unsustainable deficits. Increased spending under President Biden made a dire situation even worse. For instance, in just five weeks since suspending the debt ceiling, the deficit rose by $1 trillion. Inflation soared once the current administration took office, and still hasn’t leveled off. Real wages are just now catching up with inflation after falling behind for more than two consecutive years. The US dollar’s value has waned. America is not a safe investment, thus the downgrade. Fitch Ratings predicts slower economic growth in the coming years due to high regulations, increased taxes, and demographic changes affecting productivity and population. This slower growth means less tax revenue for the federal government. Also, mandatory spending on Social Security and Medicare, which make up the bulk of federal spending, is projected to grow rapidly, contributing to rising deficits that will soon have just net interest payments exceed spending on national defense. Americans can expect their wallets to be tangibly affected soon. The downgrade will contribute to even higher interest rates than otherwise, which will have a domino effect on various aspects of the economy, including the stock market. Unless severe corrective measures are taken, the situation will likely deteriorate further, impacting people’s prosperity and perpetuating a debt and stagflationary situation. The government should focus on fiscal responsibility and better budget management to avoid a deepening spending crisis, exacerbating Americans’ existing economic burden. First, an approach of zero-based, performance-based budgeting should be implemented throughout the government to identify and eliminate ineffective programs. Second, independent audits by private entities of government spending for programs would provide transparency and guide decision-making regarding which programs to retain, modify, or cut. Third, but likely most important, implementing a fiscal rule that has worked at the state level, such as population growth plus inflation for a maximum budget growth rate, could cap the government’s debt accumulation and support more economic growth. Had such a rule been adopted over the last two decades, the national debt increase would have been significantly lower, by just $500 billion instead of the actual $19 trillion, allowing for better debt management. The US credit downgrade should be a sobering wake-up call that urges Congress and the administration to prioritize fiscal responsibility. As the nation faces economic challenges and increasing debt burdens, it is crucial to adopt prudent measures to put America back on a path to prosperity. Only through concerted efforts to control spending, implement effective budgeting practices, and consider the long-term economic impact of policy decisions can America chart a sustainable and prosperous course for the future. Otherwise, buckle up. It’s going to be a bumpy ride. Originally published at AIER. Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) recently signed into law the tax relief compromise by the Legislature’s second special session. This relief is historic with the country’s largest tax cut and the largest net tax cut in Texas history.
But it falls short of what Texans were promised of the largest property tax cut in the state’s history, as it’s instead the state’s second largest property tax cut because of the largest spending increase in Texas history. Rather than providing substantial relief and simplifying the property tax system, the package presents a burdensome approach that could hinder the state's progress. By overspending and adopting a convoluted tax relief strategy, Texas risks falling behind states rather than leading the way in addressing real property tax concerns. The deal provides $12.7 billion in new property tax relief out of the nearly $33 billion surplus as the Legislature increased the upcoming 2024-25 biennial budget by more than 30% in state funds. This is the largest increase in Texas history and well above the the key rate of population growth plus inflation of 16% over the last two years. The major target for property tax relief was reducing school district maintenance and operations (M&O) property taxes. These property taxes are essentially a statewide property tax, which is prohibited by the state’s constitution, as they are partially determined by the state’s school finance system that includes redistribution of property taxes from school districts with high-valued property to districts with lower-valued property. Of the nearly $33 billion in state surplus funds and tens of billions more in new revenue available, the state allocated just $7.1 billion for a modest 10.7-cent reduction per $100 valuation in those property tax rates, called “compression,” which provides long-lasting relief and benefits everyone. The other $5.6 billion is for raising the homestead exemption by $60,000 to $100,000 for the appraised value of primary residences to determine how much is paid for school district property taxes. But this will be short-lived as valuations rise quickly and has failed to provide long-lasting relief the last three times it’s been tried in Texas since 1997 while benefitting only only homeowners. The $12.7 billion over the next two years will hardly alleviate the burden of property taxes on Texans and is a far cry from eliminating them altogether as Gov. Abbot initially set out to do. The package also includes a pilot project of an appraisal cap on non-homestead property at 20% per year for three years. This property doesn’t have a cap on it today so this will benefit some but will mean that local governments will just ratchet up property tax rates to bring in the tax revenue they desire to grow spending. There will also now be three elected officials added to county appraisal boards. Texans are left with this compromise package that unnecessarily complicates the tax system and obstructs efforts to eliminate school M&O property taxes, enabling the government to pick winners and losers. In this case, renters would undoubtedly be among the losers, and they are nearly 40% of households across the state. A more robust approach is necessary soon to achieve significant, long-lasting property tax relief for Texans. The best path being discussed is to buy down school district M&O property tax rates with surplus funds starting with limiting government spending, which was lacking this session after years of an improving budget picture. Ways to improve this overall package would have been by institutionalizing the buy-down plan and imposing spending limits on local governments. The final part of the package is $600 million to raise the exemption of gross receipts to pay franchise taxes from $1 million to $2.47 million, which is important but doesn’t help reduce property taxes and is less effective than cutting the franchise tax rates until they’re zero. This brings the total amount of new tax relief to $13.3 billion. This amount is lower than the $14.2 billion that the Legislature provided to buy down school property taxes in 2008-09, which would be about $21 billion to have the same purchasing power today. And even if you include the state maintaining its property tax rate reduction in 2019 of $5.3 billion in this year’s budget for a total of about $18.6 billion, it would not equal $21 billion. But that 2008-09 relief was done by raising bad taxes of the franchise tax, sales tax on motor vehicles, and cigarette tax which this time no taxes are raised as the taxpayer funds come from surplus money. So, this 2023 tax relief package can be called the “largest net tax cut in Texas history” but not the “largest property tax cut,” and is the largest tax cut in the country. But Texans could have had more relief if the state hadn’t spent so much. Eliminating school property taxes is a crucial next step for Texans to truly own their homes instead of renting from the government forever. And this will be achieved faster when politicians stop spending so much. So while this historic relief is much appreciated, there’s much more to do next session for Texans to stop renting and start owning. Originally published at Real Clear Policy. For at least a decade before the pandemic, Tennessee leaders have practiced conservative budgeting, keeping increases in state spending below population growth plus inflation. This saved Tennessee taxpayers billions of dollars, allowing for further pro-growth tax cuts. As the state is finally spending the last of its federal relief funds, it is more important than ever that Tennessee leaders practice conservative budgeting and fiscal restraint, correct for those excesses, and return to pre-pandemic spending trends. The Conservative Tennessee Budget ensures that the burden on Tennessee families to fund the state government will not increase beyond their ability to pay for it. For the upcoming FY 2025 budget, that maximum threshold would be $59.45 billion. By appropriating below that amount, Tennessee policymakers will continue to give taxpayers the best opportunity to prosper and live their version of the American dream. Finally, Tennessee should make this CTB approach the law of the land by improving the state’s current spending limit with this stronger limit to best let people prosper. Originally published at Beacon Center. Overview
Texas Passes Largest Budget Increase in Texas History Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) recently signed the Texas budget (HB 1) passed by the 88th Texas Legislature with the largest spending increases, the largest corporate welfare increases, and the largest social safety net increases—without the largest property tax cuts—in Texas history. State officials can claim that the budget increases by less than the rate population growth and inflation using the data in Table 1 by the Legislative Budget Board. But those calculations use fuzzy math, as they’re based on inflating the 2022-23 base budget of general revenue not dedicated by the Constitution and consolidated general revenue with more spending, then increasing it by the rate of population growth times inflation of 12.33% (determined by the average of population growth times inflation over the last two years and the upcoming two years). Compare this with 2024-25 appropriations, which will be higher later when the supplemental bill passes. These calculations are then spending-to-appropriations, which is like comparing apples with oranges. Even with these calculations, the Legislative Budget Board shows in Table 2 that there is $10.7 billion in tax revenue remaining, $1.6 billion available under the constitutional spending limit using general revenue not dedicated by the Constitution, and $11.8 billion available under the 2021 spending limit with consolidate general revenue using general revenue and dedicated general revenue. While the data in Table 1 provides an apples-to-apples budget comparison, the charts below are more accurate ways to evaluate the budget growth from an appropriations-to-appropriations approach. Better Comparisons for Budget Growth Understanding that any growth in the budget means an expansion of government, there are two strong arguments for limiting government spending: 1) Table 3 shows data for freezing the budget in inflation-adjusted per capita terms using the rate of population growth plus inflation (i.e., Conservative Texas Budget and responsible budget approach in other states), which was 16% over the last two fiscal years. This approach is appropriate as it grows slower than the economy over time. It also excludes $13.3 billion in COVID-related funding in the first biennium as well as new and old tax relief amounts of $6.2 billion ($100 million in new relief) in the first period and $18 billion (i.e., amounts passed in HB 1 of $5.2 billion for old relief and the latest of $12.7 billion in new relief during the second special session). Excluding these helps to not include one-time federal funding and amounts that don’t grow government. Using the CTB approach above, Table 4 highlights how the budget has improved since implementation of the CTB started with the 2016-17 budget. This looked much better before the current 2024-25 budget, but the massive growth of the current budget raised the growth of initial appropriations even as the rate of population growth plus inflation rose slightly during the latter five-budget period. If the growth of the budget is not controlled, it will soon surpass the rate of population growth plus inflation like it did during the prior six budget periods. 2) Table 5 shows freezing the budget with zero growth as the budget is already too big (i.e., Frozen Budget), including COVID-related funds in the first period and new and old property tax relief amounts in both periods. Conclusion
Both approaches show that while the general revenue related (GRR) funds amount is below the rate of population growth and inflation (either plus or times) for the CTB approach, the broader measures of state funds and all funds that better represent the burden of government spending on taxpayers are well above either metric. And when using the frozen Texas budget approach, the only budget amount below either rate of population growth and inflation is federal funds. In other words, the Legislature is using fuzzy math when it comes to the budget and property tax relief. This looks much more like what would be done in California rather than Texas. This is not what Texans want or expect from their elected officials. If this continues, Texas will be California soon. While this is the largest spending increase in Texas history, there was also at least $10 billion in new corporate welfare—the largest in state history. Texas must not sit back on its laurels while ending this populist trend. Texas must do what’s in the best interest for everyone, which is limiting or cutting government spending, taxes, and regulations so there’s more freedom for people to prosper. A better path would have been to spend less and put Texas on a path to eliminate property taxes so Texans can have the right to own their property instead of perpetually renting from the government. By following the Texans for Fiscal Responsibility’s three-step process of passing a frozen state budget, using 90% of surplus dollars to compress school district M&O property tax rates until they are zero, and having local governments eliminate the rest of their property taxes with surplus dollars above a new local spending limit, Texas can eliminate property taxes soon. There’s a chance to do so during a special session during the interim or next session. Originally published with links at Texans for Fiscal Responsibility. Louisiana’s 2023 Regular Legislative Session ended on June 8th with a bang. Amid much arguing and a lot of untransparent, last-minute maneuvering, the Legislature passed a big-spending budget that busted through its own limits on spending extra taxpayer dollars (also known as the “spending cap” or the “expenditure limit”). When the dust settled, the legislature spent approximately $2.2 billion in extra revenue this year and nearly $1 billion more than was originally expected in fiscal year 2024 (FY 24). In doing so, they missed a critical opportunity to save for the future, pay down debt, and put Louisiana on a path toward a comeback. Louisiana’s Weak Expenditure Limit Is A Problem When the government takes in more tax dollars, politicians tend to spend it. Unfortunately, as budgets grow year after year, that spending keeps getting higher and higher. That might seem OK in good times, when more money is coming in. But when bad times come, revenue drops, and taxpayers are stuck paying for an unsustainable budget. That’s why a spending cap is important. Think of it this way. If you get a raise at work and have more money to spend, you might decide to go on a spending spree and buy a new car or a bigger house. But if you lose your job (and don’t have money saved up), you’re going to struggle to pay your bills. That’s what’s happening with Louisiana’s budget. Over the last few years, tax increases, personal income growth, and massive infusions of federal dollars led to an influx of cash. In other words, these are “good times” from a fiscal perspective, and more money has been coming into the state’s coffers. Unfortunately, Louisiana’s spending cap is weak, ineffective, arbitrary, and inconsistent—and it allows legislators to keep busting through its limits. This year, the legislature decided to irresponsibly raise the limit by $1.4 billion to $17.9 billion—12.7% higher than the original limit in FY 23—so they could go on a spending spree. Where Did the Extra Money Come From? In FY 23, there was an additional $2.2 billion more than was originally appropriated to fund the state government. This included $726 million remaining from FY 22 (called a surplus) and an additional $1.5 billion in revenue and budget savings in FY 23 (called an excess). Fiscal conservatives in the legislature presented an option to spend this money wisely, without busting the spending cap, by saving for a rainy day, triggering tax relief for all taxpayers, paying down costly debt, and improving dilapidated infrastructure. However, as the carrot was waved in front of many legislators to “bring home the bacon,” many caved to the pressure and voted to raise the spending cap and spend all the available money. The FY 24 budget as passed by the Legislature totals a record-breaking $51 billion and added roughly $800 million in new, recurring spending (spending that must continue year after year). This budget is nearly double what was spent just ten years ago. This budget growth is unsustainable and beyond the ability of the average Louisiana taxpayer to pay. *FY 23 budget as of 12/1/2022 ** FY 24 appropriations as passed by the Legislature Where was the money spent? With the influx of more than $2.2 billion in tax revenue above and beyond what was needed to run an already bloated state government budget, plus an additional $1 billion for the following year, lawmakers used a series of budget bills to appropriate these funds that exceeded the expenditure limit in both years and grew the budget irresponsibly for future years when revenues are predicted to decline.
A mere $60 million more deposited into the Rainy Day Fund–instead of some of the above favored member projects–would have triggered tax relief for millions of Louisiana taxpayers. It would have been modest, to be sure, but it was promised by the legislature in 2021 that if revenues exceeded a certain growth rate, taxes would be lowered by that amount. And revenues did exceed a very generous growth rate, but because not enough money was placed in the savings account, the trigger wasn’t met. In other words, lawmakers actively chose to spend a modest portion of the $2.2 billion total that was intended for tax relief on other favored projects. While there was much debate and discussion, very little was given to paying down debt. The $473 million to LASERS debt is just half of what was originally planned in the House passed version of the budget bills, which would have freed up over 8% of employee benefit costs for the state. In the end, only $50 million, which was the required payment, went to TRSL, the teacher’s retirement system. That’s a drop in the bucket compared to the $600 million proposed by the House for teachers and $800 million for state workers. The total owed on public employee retirement debt totals more than $19 billion and total debt owed by the state is more than $29 billion, this payment represents pocket change. The $525 million in debt payments that made it through the entire process is helpful, to be sure, but frees up very little and does not improve the outlook much in the long-run. To add insult to injury, no forethought was given to the types and locations of infrastructure projects in the state, primarily taking shape in the form of pork barrel projects to local governments for local parks, roads, water systems, and the like, rather than a comprehensive, thoughtful plan put forth that maintained current state roads and built new capacity to move Louisiana forward in the future. Better Budgeting for the Future There should be a better guardrail placed on budget growth which sets a maximum that can be appropriated each year. This will provide an easy, transparent way to see if responsible budgeting occurs throughout the session. Of course, a spending limit should ultimately be based on spending, but using appropriations gives taxpayers a better way to see how their money is being used throughout the legislative process. And there is a better metric to use that represents the average taxpayer’s ability to pay for government spending in the rate of population growth plus inflation. This is why the Pelican Institute released the proposed Responsible Louisiana Budget (RLB) earlier this year which limits state funds to less than the average rate of population growth plus inflation over the last three years. The method is being recommended in more than 10 other states to help rein in out of control spending with mixed results. For the FY 24 RLB, the growth rate was 4.1% over FY 23 appropriations for a maximum of state funds appropriations of $21.4 billion. This amount is different from the state’s current expenditure limit as there are different amounts covered and the amount should be the largest part of the budget possible, which is why we started with state funds, but more would be preferable. The following chart shows the recommended RLB and what the actual budget looks like, which is $2.4 billion higher than the RLB. Therefore, this is an irresponsible budget and is unsustainable given the ongoing expenditures throughout the budget. There was some good use of funds to pay down debt, but otherwise this growth in the budget will mean greater spending restraint or higher taxes will be necessary to keep these services, activities, and projects funded in the future. And this is not the time to do this given that more people are leaving Louisiana than moving in and there are economic headwinds on the horizon. We need a comeback story now. This budget is a tremendous, missed opportunity and actually hurts that effort. Our state’s leaders must do better going forward.
This year, lawmakers had a unique and significant opportunity to make a real difference for the future of Louisiana. But that opportunity was squandered by Louisiana politics at its finest. The state had a historic opportunity to pay down debt and save for the future, setting Louisiana on a path to fiscal responsibility and sustainability. Lawmakers also had an opportunity to provide much needed tax relief amid record-breaking inflationary times to help families across the state, and they had the opportunity to address the astronomical backlog of infrastructure needs in a responsible and organized fashion. Instead, lawmakers followed the path of least resistance, to “bring home the bacon” and continue to increase local government dependence on the state, while also continuing to grow state government in an unsustainable way. It is very likely lawmakers in the new term will be faced with similar decisions in the 2024 Legislative Session. Will Louisiana voters continue to elect leaders who will continue down the path of unsustainability, or will they elect leaders who will make the responsible decisions to put Louisiana on a path to a Comeback Story? Originally posted at Pelican Institute with co-author Jamie Tairov. This Week's Economy Ep. 14 | Inflation is Americans’ Top Concern, State Jobs Report, & Minimum Wage6/23/2023 Thank you for reading the Let People Prosper newsletter, which today includes the 12th episode of "This Week's Economy,” where I briefly share insights every Friday on key economic and policy news across the country. Today, I cover: 1) National: New Pew Research poll reveals that inflation is the top concern for Americans on both sides of the political aisle, Fed needs to do more, and financial markets remain loose; 2) States: New state-level jobs report and which states are leading and breakdown of the largest spending increase in Texas history and why it's not good for keeping the Texas Model strong; and 3) Other: The importance of educating young audiences on capitalism and socialism and my experience teaching with a "minimum wage" game to a group of high school students. You can watch this episode and others along with my Let People Prosper Show on YouTube or listen to it on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Google Podcast, or Anchor. Please share, subscribe, like, and leave a 5-star rating!
For show notes, thoughtful insights, media interviews, speeches, blog posts, research, and more, check out my website (https://www.vanceginn.com/) and please subscribe to my newsletter (www.vanceginn.substack.com), share this post, and leave a comment. Today, I'm honored to be joined by Patrick Gleason, Vice President of State Affairs at Americans for Tax Reform. We discuss: 1) How the state flat tax revolution has swept across the country over the last two years, which states have joined, and why it is a beneficial change for more flourishing; 2) Misconceptions about flat taxes, Kansas as an example of how to make tax relief fail, and the need for responsible state budgets; and 3) Patrick's current work on tax and school choice reform across states. Gleason’s bio:
You can watch this interview on YouTube or listen to it on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Google Podcast, or Anchor. Please share on social media, subscribe to your favorite platform and my newsletter, like it, and leave a 5-star rating. Find show notes, thoughtful economic insights, media interviews, speeches, blog posts, research, and more at my website and my Substack newsletter. Unfortunately, Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) signed the Texas budget passed by the 88th Texas Legislature with largest spending increases, largest corporate welfare increases, and largest social safety net increases without the largest property tax cuts in Texas history. State officials can claim that the budget increases by less than the rate population growth and inflation using the data in the table below by the Legislative Budget Board. But those calculations use fuzzy math as they're based on inflating the 2022-23 base budget of general revenue not dedicated by the constitution and consolidated general revenue with more spending then increasing it by the rate of population growth times inflation of 12.33% (determined by the average of population growth times inflation over the last two years and the upcoming two years) compared with 2024-25 appropriations which will be higher later when the supplemental bill passes. These calculations are then spending-to-appropriations which are like comparing apples with oranges, not appropriate accounting. Even with these calculations, the Legislative Budget Board shows that there is $10.7 billion in tax revenue remaining, $1.6 billion available under the constitutional spending limit using general revenue not dedicated by the constitution, and $11.8 billion available under the 2021 spending limit using consolidate general revenue using general revenue and dedicated general revenue. The charts below are more accurate ways to evaluate the budget growth from an appropriations-to-appropriations approach for an apples-to-apples comparison. Understanding that any growth in the budget means an expansion of government, there are two strong arguments: 1) Freezing the budget in inflation-adjusted per capita terms using the rate of population growth plus inflation (i.e., Conservative Texas Budget and responsible budget approach in other states), which was 16% over the last two fiscal years, is appropriate as it grows slower than the economy over time. This approach excludes $13.3 billion in COVID-related funding in the first biennium and excluding new and old property tax relief amounts of $6.2 billion ($100 million in new relief) in the first period and $17.6 billion ($12.3 billion in new relief and $5.3 billion in old relief) in the second period to not include one-time federal funding and amounts that don't grow government. Using the CTB approach above, here's how the budget has improved since implementation of the CTB started with the 2016-17 budget. This looked much better before the current 2024-25 budget, but the massive growth of the current budget raised the growth of initial appropriations even as the rate of population growth plus inflation rose slightly during the latter five budget period. If the growth of the budget is not controlled, it will soon surpass the rate of population growth plus inflation like it did during the prior six budget periods. 2) Freezing the budget with zero growth as the budget is already too big (i.e., Frozen Budget), including COVID-related funds in the first period and new and old property tax relief amounts in both periods. Both of these approaches show that while the general revenue-related (GRR) funds amount is below the rate of population growth and inflation (either plus or times) for the CTB approach, the broader measures of state funds and all funds that better represent the burden of government spending on taxpayers are well above either metric. And when using the Frozen Budget approach, the only budget amount below either rate of population growth and inflation is federal funds.
In other words, they are using fuzzy math when it comes to the budget and property tax relief. This looks much more like what would be done in California rather than Texas. This is not what Texans want or expect from their elected officials. If this continues, Texas will be California soon. There’s time to turn some of this around with at least passing more for property tax relief that does it correctly (here's why) for everyone through compression of school M&O property taxes on their path to zero. It would be great if they could get to $21B in new relief, which is the $14.2 billion in property tax relief provided in 2008-09 adjusted for inflation, instead of the $12.3B currently discussed but that looks unlikely now so it won’t be the largest property tax relief in Texas history. The red state of Texas must not sit back on its laurels. The populist trend must not continue. Do what's in the best interest for everyone which is limiting or cutting government spending, taxes, and regulations so that there's more freedom for people to do what's in their best interest and let people prosper. The debt ceiling fiasco is over, and with it, the costly Inflation Reduction Act, or as I like to call it, the Inflation Recession Act, was unfortunately left mostly intact. Congress’s lackluster attempt to curb spending will matter even less considering this, as new calculations show. The time is ripe for a reassessment and elimination of at least the ill-advised tax credits contained within the IRA before irreversible damage is inflicted on our already suffering economy.
Last year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the IRA would cost $391 billion from 2022 to 2031. But with updated data and Treasury rules, new cost estimates show it to be three times higher at $1.2 trillion. During my recent testimony before the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee, I noted the need for a re-estimate of the IRA’s cost for tax credits that subsidize manufactured battery cells and modules for electric vehicles (EV). The CBO’s estimate of these tax credits was $30.6 billion, but new calculations have it at nearly $200 billion–or nearly seven times higher. Battery cells can receive a $35 tax credit for every kWh of energy the battery produces, while battery modules can receive $10 per kWh, or “$45 for a battery module that does not use battery cells.” The CBO’s assessment was conducted prior to the Treasury’s release of draft guidance in March that relaxes mineral sourcing standards to produce EV batteries. And since the IRA passed, there’s more evidence that incentives matter as EV manufacturers substantially increase production to get the tax credits well above CBO’s estimates. Look no further than Tesla for a real-time example of how these tax credits will cost us. Maker of the most-sold EVs in America, Tesla moved its battery production from Germany to Texas after the tax credits were announced. And its Model Y emerged as the best-selling EV in the U.S. last year, with a total of 234,834 units sold. Its battery starts at 75-kWh, so for those sales, Tesla could have received more than $616 million in tax credits had the tax credits been in place. For 2023, Tesla expects to manufacture 2 million EVs, resulting in possibly $5 billion in annual tax credits for batteries. Meanwhile, Ford, which had the second-highest EV sales last year, plans to triple production for its F-150 Lightning, targeting 150,000 units by the end of 2023. The battery size for this model starts at 98-kWh, and assuming Ford meets its goal, that would cost taxpayers $514 million in tax credits. If Tesla and Ford can collectively receive at least $1 billion in tax credits in 2023, it’s easy to see how the CBO’s estimate over the next decade for all EV batteries is too low. This difference between the estimates and the growth of the EV market is concerning in this post-pandemic economy, verging on a recession where more than 60% of Americans are estimated to be living paycheck to paycheck. More government spending, like what’s allotted in the IRA, and more debt, like what’s allowed under the debt ceiling deal, is the last thing America needs. As government spending increases, so do taxes, leading to less work, lower productivity and growth, and, subsequently, less tax revenue. These measures contribute to even higher budget deficits that stifle economic growth, increase poverty, and exacerbate multi-decade high inflation. While the IRA’s green energy initiatives, massive tax hikes, and excessive spending should have been enough reason to reject it initially, Democrats forced it through based on CBO’s massive underestimates of tax credits and other initiatives. Now, taxpayers will suffer the aftermath of this expensive legislation, which is why these costs should be reevaluated and ultimately eliminated before this weak economy is made worse for struggling Americans. For a better path forward, we need more pro-growth policies and less government spending, not bad debt deals and corporate welfare to large businesses on the backs of taxpayers. Originally published at Econlib. It's great to see that state officials in Texas are debating how to provide one of the largest tax cuts in the state's history. Unfortunately, that amount is only about $12.3 billion in new relief (an additional $5.3 billion to maintain past relief) of the at least $33 billion surplus. And given that the largest property tax cut was $14.2 billion for 2008-09, the state would need to provide $21 billion in new relief this time for it to be the largest tax cut in Texas history so that Texans can have the same purchasing power of relief as in 2008. While there's a lot of debate of how the state should provide property tax relief of school district maintenance and operations (M&O) property taxes, the best way to provide the most relief to everyone is through compression, which is using state dollars mostly through sales taxes to buy down school district M&O property taxes that the state mostly controls with its school finance formulas, and it is the best way being discussed to get those taxes to zero. The Texas House already passed HB1 in the first special session that provides $12.4 billion for a 16.2-cent (per $100 valuation of property) compression of ISD M&O property taxes. Meanwhile, the Texas Senate already passed SB1 that provides $12.1 billion for 10-cent compression and a $60K increase in homestead exemption to $100K for ISD M&O property taxes. Texas Governor Greg Abbott then tweeted that his plan is the plan outlined by the Texas Public Policy Foundation which uses state surplus dollars for compression of ISD M&O property taxes each session until they are zero. I’m very familiar with this plan as I co-authored the original version with my former colleagues at TPPF in 2018. The plan has been through multiple iterations. My July 2021 co-authored paper looked at this buy-down approach of using 90% of state surplus dollars above a stricter spending limit of population growth plus inflation to compress school M&O property taxes until they are zero within about a decade or a tax reform that would broaden the sales tax base to eliminate those taxes immediately without raising the rate based on a dynamic economic model. And the latest was a December 2022 co-authored paper where we address the affordability crisis in Texas and how the buy down plan would help with this while providing more economic growth. I also wrote a 2023 paper updating this based on how quickly this could be done if a frozen budget with zero growth was used to provide more surplus funding to eliminate these property taxes. And I also wrote another 2023 paper noting how there is no need to fear about a recession or reduced revenue as there would be the need for spending restraint or cuts, plenty of money in the rainy day fund, or excess reserves held by school districts to address any shortfall to maintain the relief and fund public education. Two professors at Rice University also studied different reforms in 2018 of the buy down approach and the sales tax expansion approach to eliminate school M&O property taxes and they found that these would provide substantial benefits to the state. Compression is best because everyone benefits, including from the dynamic effects of more growth, more jobs, and lower prices, and it's the only way that's being discussed today to get the school M&O property tax rate to 0%. The other path by the Senate is to raise the homestead exemption from $40,000 to $100,000 but that will never eliminate those taxes and will push the burden of funding spending to everyone else making the system less equitable while evaporating any relief quickly from appraisal growth and making the path to elimination harder .because rates will rise from it. Given the different approaches being discussed by the House/Governor and Senate/Lt. Governor, I did an analysis of the median valued home in Texas of $350,000 in Austin, Houston, and Dallas. I used the tax rates for each of these locations and had the home increase in value by 10% per year, which is the maximum growth for a homestead under current law. I didn't change anything else to provide an apples-to-apples comparison of a tax reform in 2023 to estimate what would happen over the next five years given a 1) $60,000 increase in the homestead exemption, 2) SB 1 with $60,000 increase in the homestead exemption and 10-cent compression, 3) HB 1 with 16.2-cent compression, and 4) what would be largest tax cut in Texas history with a 25-cent compression. I should note that this modeling is just on a homestead so doesn’t account for the much more broad-based effects of the compression scenarios. Austin The following three charts are for Austin, including Austin ISD, to see what these four scenarios would look like given the assumptions above in each year. The first chart shows what would happen for total property taxes (i.e. ISD, city, county, and special purpose district property taxes) under these scenarios compared with the total tax paid of $5,945 for a $350,000 home in Austin, which the results show that SB 1 and the 25-cent compression are similar but both of them would have only one year of lower total property taxes until 2025 when the amount paid would exceed that of 2023. The second chart shows similar results as SB 1 and the 25-cent compression have the greatest effects on the 2023 ISD M&O property taxes of $3,089 but HB1 also provides relief until 2028 when the amount paid would exceed that of 2023. But, more importantly, given these are only homesteads and don't account for families who pay rent or own a business, the third chart shows that HB 1 with 16.2-cent compression and the 25-cent compression cut the tax rate the most over time as this compression in just 2024 continues to buy down the rate as values increase by 10% in this example. Houston The following charts are for Houston with similar results for each of the scenarios. Dallas The following charts are for Dallas with similar results. I recently explained how this would work and how compression is the gold standard with the only meaningful way to eliminate school M&O property taxes that are being discussed now in my conversation on CBS News Texas. I also recently wrote how the Texas Legislature had the largest spending increase in Texas history this session thereby not providing enough in property tax relief. I argued that Gov. Abbott should veto the budget or at least $8 billion of budget items and use it for compression so that Texans get record relief. It should be noted that compression will help renters. The Texas Comptroller's report (see figure below) finds that 26% of school property taxes are passed along to renters, and businesses submit 52% of those taxes but people pay for them through higher prices, lower wages, fewer jobs, and higher rent. Simple supply and demand shows that the property taxes would rotate the private market supply of housing leftward thereby raising rents and lowering the quantity supplied compared with the free market. In other words, the market does set the rents but that market is distorted by property taxes so removing those school taxes would help push down rents through competition. When the landlord has a vacancy and is paying lower property taxes, then she will lower the rent given lower cost to attract tenants. It may not happen overnight but it will as that’s how competition works, and those biz that don’t will by forced out of the market through losses. This wouldn't just be a shift in supply of housing that would reduce rents, which would happen some when this tax is cut and certainly when it’s eventually eliminated, but that’s not the only way. There’s also movement down the demand curve as the supply curve corrects to the private supply curve (S1) rather than the distorted supply curve (S2) with the ad-valorem property tax which will lower prices and increase the quantity supplied. This is through competition which will happen as consumers will have more negotiating power and landlords will want to rent out every unit but won’t if they don’t lower their rents as their competition will because their costs have been reduced. From the fact that property taxes are going down there’s a reduction in cost by the landlords so they have the ability to get more renters at a lower rent. And renters would know this as property taxes go down or they will go to another location. Hence, more consumer power, which the consumer has much power in every market if they choose to wield it, especially jelly when govt gets out of the way. It wouldn’t change rents overnight as many are in leases, but it would over time. One of the issues contributing to the affordability crisis in #Texas especially for lower-income folks is skyrocketing property taxes. Any relief would be most appreciated by 100% of property holders through compression. Lowering school M&O property tax rates through compression is the best path for everyone to benefit, not only from lower taxes but also more economic growth, and for those taxes to go to zero. Many groups have already stated their support for the buy down plan, which is also supported by the Governor and the House has passed much of it though they need to add HB 5 by Rep. Briscoe Cain which would put in statute the buy down plan to zero. At the end of the day, I'm glad Texans are talking about property tax relief as other states have been cutting taxes so Texas can't sit back and be competitive with other states without spending less and cutting taxes, as corporate welfare makes the problems worse. The Legislature unfortunately passed a revamp of the expired Chapter 313 in HB 5 during the regular session that is now called Chapter 403, which provides property tax abatements issued by school districts to mostly big businesses. Fortunately, when school district M&O property taxes are eliminated, this corporate welfare will be eliminated, too.
There are so many reasons to eliminate this tax. Texas will be an economic juggernaut! And what's maybe the most important is that Texans will have more of their right to own property preserved instead of renting from the government forever from this immoral wealth tax known as property taxes. Raising the homestead d emotion might be a part of the final deal, but we should remember that the homestead exemption picks winners and losers, is not sound tax policy, and has been tried three times (1997, 2015, and 2021) without substantial reductions in those taxes paid. 'm okay with broadening the sales tax base and eliminating school M&O property taxes immediately and using surplus dollars to buy down sales taxes over time. This would also broaden the sales tax base for local governments which should use those funds to buy down their own property taxes and limit their spending with a restrictive limit like the state's based on population growth and inflation to use surplus dollars to buy down the rest until they are zero. But there isn’t the political will yet do this approach so the best way right now is the buy down path for school property taxes by the state and local government buying down their own could happen over the next decade for the eventual elimination of all property taxes in Texas. The time to start doing this is now. Get tax relief done for Texans! Texas’ 88th regular legislative session, sine die as of Memorial Day, will be remembered as the one that got Texas closer to looking like California and less like the leading pro-market and limited government Lone Star State.
Instead of the desired “largest property tax cut in Texas history,” school choice, and spending restraint that would best let people prosper, legislators passed the largest increases in spending, corporate welfare, and safety nets in state history. Texas taxpayers can only hope that Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) just-called special session will help with property tax relief but there will need to be more special sessions for universal school choice and other pro-prosperity priorities. The newly passed total budget for the upcoming two-year period amounts to $321 billion, which is a 21.3% increase from what was initially appropriated in the prior period. Excluding federal funds, state funds increased by 31.7% to $219.1 billion. These are the largest increases in recent history and likely ever. And both are substantially above the rate of population growth plus inflation of 16% over the last two fiscal years. In short, legislators passed massive budget increases which aren’t conservative or responsible and will make it difficult to sustain these expenditures over time. Making matters worse, the Legislature provides over $10 billion in new corporate welfare, the largest amount in state history. This includes renewal of property tax abatements by school districts, HB 5, that had died in December 2022, money for the governor’s Texas Enterprise Fund, and subsidies for natural gas projects, movie production, broadband projects, water projects, state parks, and more. And much of this will be on the ballot this November to create new funds to spend on these efforts, which voters should reject. Instead, these expenditures should be done in the normal budget process as constitutionally dedicating these taxpayer dollars will remove them from under the constitutional spending limit, allowing the state to spend even more. Texans were quick to celebrate the movement toward new property tax relief efforts, which is a major burden for property owners across the state. And with a surplus of $33 billion, there was the opportunity to do so by rightfully returning these over collected taxes. But those cuts never materialized in the wake of less effective solutions of appraisal caps and homestead exemptions taking precedence over the previously promised historical property tax cut. The gold standard for relief of school district maintenance and operations property taxes is through compression, which means that the state uses mostly sales taxes to buy down those property tax rates and thus tax collections by the most possible. And the amount should be about $21 billion, or 25-cent compression, in inflation-adjusted dollars to have the same purchasing power today as what was the largest property tax cut of $14.2 billion in 2008. This is a critical path to eliminating nearly half of the property tax burden in Texas so people can truly own their property instead of renting from the government forever. Still, any relief provided is made much less effective with the passage of HB5, which is just Chapter 313 revamped. HB5 gives more corporate welfare to big businesses by allowing school districts to give tax breaks to companies for new buildings, thereby choosing winners and losers among school districts affected. As school districts lose property tax funds at the hands of HB5, state funds must compensate for the loss on the backs of taxpayers across the state. These big spending, big corporate welfare, and no tax relief represent a potential turning point in the wrong direction that harms a robust economy. In the first called special session this week, there has already been a bill passed by the Texas House that would provide that opportunity by compressing school district M&O property taxes by 16.2 cents per $100 valuation with $12.4 billion. The Texas Senate has a proposal that would compress those taxes by 10 cents per $100 valuation and raise the homestead exemption by $60,000 to $100,0000 with $12.1 billion. So far, Gov. Abbott has said that the call was only for compression but Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) has been pushing back. At the end of the day, compression is best as it helps everyone, is long-lasting as a share of taxable value, and, more importantly, is the only way to eliminate these taxes. But what’s still a problem is that these amounts are only about one-third of the $33 billion surplus, meaning the Legislature wants to spend more money than return to taxpayers. This is not the path to prosperity as at least $21 billion in new tax cuts is needed for this to be the largest property tax relief in Texas history. Lawmakers should prioritize responsible relief measures that encourage job growth and support initiatives that promote long-term economic prosperity by reducing spending, cutting taxes, and supporting prosperity. Originally published by The Center Square. Larry and Glenda Legler think the state should be using much of its nearly $33 billion surplus to give Texans a break on their property taxes.
Larry Legler said, "The state's got an ungodly amount of money that they need to do something with." But after months of promises to do that, Republican leaders still can't agree on the way to provide relief. "That's what's getting frustrating." Governor Greg Abbott prefers ending the school maintenance and operations or "M&O" portion of your property taxes over ten years. That portion alone is about 42% of your property tax bill. To make that happen, the state would shift sales tax, other state revenues, and surplus money to pay for public schools. That would allow the state to gradually reduce the rate for M&O property taxes until they're eliminated altogether. Vance Ginn, a conservative economist and president of Ginn Economic Consulting, has pushed this idea for years. "It's the only way that you can get to $0 school district property taxes is by buying down those rates because that rate can go to zero which zero out of a hundred-dollar valuation for a home is $0. And so that is still $0, and you've eliminated that tax." But Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and the Texas Senate have a different plan. While it uses more state revenues and less property taxes to pay for schools, it would also increase homestead exemptions for most homeowners from $40,000 to $100,000. And for homeowners over 65, it would raise homestead exemptions from $70,000 to $110,000. Patrick said it would provide nearly double the savings for homeowners than the Governor's plan. CBS News Texas asked Patrick earlier this week if he doesn't support eliminating the school property tax. He said, "You can't get there. You only have sales tax to prop up a state of 30 to 35 to 40 million people the next decade. What happens when we have a decline and sales taxes go down? You'll have no money to pay your bills. You can't be a one-legged horse." Ginn disagreed. "The Comptroller said we're going to have about $27 billion in the rainy-day Fund. The rainy-day fund is there to cover unforeseen revenue shortfalls which would be exactly this sort of situation." Abbott said 30 business and other groups support his plan. The Leglers said because they're seniors, they prefer the plan from Patrick and the Senate. "Everything's gone sky high and when people can't get the medications they need, which is not our case, but many people we know, or they can't afford groceries, a loaf of bread at the grocery store, we got a problem." Both the House and Senate have approved different legislation, and until they pass the same bill, the Governor cannot sign it into law. Abbott will speak Friday about this, and other issues related to the regular and special legislative sessions. Originally published by CBS Texas. On Wednesday night, the House passed what could be one of the worst debt ceiling deals in U.S. history, as it doesn’t provide the fiscal responsibility needed for suffering Americans.
In fact, this deal perpetuates most of the same reckless policies that have contributed to stagflation, leaving Americans struggling financially. Despite what appears to be a relatively strong labor market, wages have failed to keep pace with inflation on an annual basis for more than two years. Homeownership has become unattainable for many, and higher prices have forced over half of the adult population to reduce their savings. You would think that such widespread suffering would motivate Congress to reform its fiscal insanity, but apparently, that’s not the case. While 49 out of 50 states have a balanced budget amendment and most have a spending limit, there are no such rules at the federal level. The debt ceiling is the only mechanism, other than elections, that we have to keep Congress’ spending in check. By suspending the debt ceiling, we’re inviting more reckless spending, which is why our national debt has skyrocketed to a ridiculous amount of more than $31 trillion. The net interest on the debt alone will soon surpass $1 trillion. The new debt ceiling bill allows politicians to kick the can further down the road of payment for the debt to our children and grandchildren to deal with later. By raising the debt ceiling for another two years and only imposing a one percent annual spending limit next year, there’s ample room for the debt and spending to continue to grow at an already bloated budget. A more reasonable timeframe for suspending the limit would have been two months, giving Republicans and Democrats the opportunity to pursue essential spending restraint. Irresponsible spending is a bipartisan problem, but Republicans, with their majority in the House and a platform of fiscal conservatism, bear even greater responsibility to address this issue. Two years is an extensive period considering the adverse effects of the current national debt on inflation, interest rates, the U.S. dollar’s status, and the result of exacerbating the daily struggle of Americans to make ends meet, let alone pursue the largely destroyed American Dream. Some argue that Congress should budget like a family. However, they should budget even more conservatively as Congress is entrusted with the hard-earned tax dollars of the public, not their own. Unleashing spending on out-of-control war efforts with the lack of major reforms and cuts where needed in the budget when our country teeters on the brink of financial crisis doesn’t promote individual liberty or economic growth. In the meantime, fiscal conservatives in Congress should continue advocating for a spending limit rule such as seen in the states to put an end to this crisis. A responsible budget that grows, if it grows at all, by less than the rate of population growth plus inflation, which represents the average taxpayer’s ability to afford spending, would be a great goal. Without substantial spending restraint, Americans can expect more suffering. As economist Milton Friedman once said, the ultimate burden of government is not how much it taxes but how much it spends. This debt ceiling bill was an opportunity to help reduce this burden, and we lost that. Originally published by the Daily Caller. There’s much discussion in Baton Rouge about how to best allocate scarce taxpayer money that’s overflowing the state’s coffers. A problem with $3 billion in the state’s savings accounts is that everyone has their hands out to receive some of it. But the ones who should be remembered first are the taxpayers. In this discussion, one of the bright spots is tax reform, particularly eliminating the state’s corporate franchise tax. The corporate franchise tax is levied annually on the taxable capital of corporations, including capital stock, surplus, and undivided profits. Unlike corporate income taxes, which are levied on a company’s profits, these taxes are imposed on a company’s net worth. Therefore, the tax penalizes investment and requires companies to pay the tax regardless of whether they make a profit. While it’s just three percent of the state’s revenue, it’s a large burden on businesses as only 16 states have one and two of them (i.e., Connecticut and Mississippi) are phasing theirs out. Louisiana should eliminate its corporate franchise tax, too. There were improvements to the franchise tax in the state’s 2021 tax reforms that reduced the rate and increased the minimum amount needed to begin paying the tax. Those reforms also included revenue triggers which would reduce personal income taxes and corporate franchise taxes if three revenue targets are hit. This tax could be reduced substantially this session. The first two triggers are already hit so the Legislature simply needs to add about $55 million to the rainy day fund to hit the final one and there could be at least a 50 percent cut in the corporate franchise tax rate. And State Senator Bret Allain’s SB 1 could help make this phase out more certain. Eliminating this tax would result in increased productivity, faster economic growth, higher consumption, and greater investment. We’ve been working with the Economic Research Center to examine the economic effects of eliminating this tax. Their model estimates the dynamic effects of tax changes on economic variables. Table 1 includes the dollar values reported in millions of 2012 inflation-adjusted dollars and are based on the estimates in the Congressional Budget Office’s February 2023 economic projections. Employment is represented by full-time equivalent non-farm jobs, in thousands of jobs. Removing this tax on capital would support more investment and economic output over time with the largest effect in the first year. Their results show that eliminating the costly corporate franchise tax would result in gross domestic product (GDP) increasing by $330 million, with employment increasing by at least 1,000 jobs, consumer spending increasing by $30 million, and investment jumping by $170 million in 2024.
And the inflation-adjusted value of a $212 million franchise tax cut would result in just $170 million in reduced total tax revenue because the increased economic growth, employment, and investment contributes to higher collections in other taxes, such as the personal income tax because there are more people working. Of note, the temporary reduction in tax revenue won’t affect the state’s budget. Over the last three fiscal years, the state has seen a boom in corporate income and franchise tax revenues, such that, according to law, anything collected over $600 million in this category automatically goes into a savings account—the Revenue Stabilization Fund—to help offset future decreases in revenue. This money is not even in the state’s operating budget, so it won’t be missed. Louisiana is hemorrhaging people and businesses as they move to other nearby states with better tax systems. The Legislature has a chance to stop the bleeding so the state and Louisianans can heal and become more prosperous over time. There’s a great opportunity to do so now. Lawmakers can pass a responsible budget, activate revenue triggers for tax relief, and set the state on a path toward ending this punishing tax so our state can be competitive. Originally published by Pelican Institute. Key Point: Louisianans aren’t reaching their full potential primarily because of bad public policies but that can change with the Pelican Institute’s “Comeback Agenda.” Louisiana’s Labor Market: Table 1 shows Louisiana’s labor market over time until the latest data for April 2023 from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The establishment survey shows that net total nonfarm jobs in the state increased by 8,200 jobs last month (+0.4%), bringing total jobs to 33,700 jobs below the pre-shutdown level in February 2020. Private sector employment was up by 5,900 jobs (+0.4%) and government employment increased by 2,300 jobs (+0.7%) last month. Compared with a year ago, total employment was up by 48,400 jobs (+2.5%), with the private sector adding 41,400 jobs (+2.6%) and the government adding 7,000 jobs (+2.3%). The household survey finds that the working-age population declined by another 920 people last month, down 11,077 people over the last year, and down 33,212 people since February 2020. But the civilian labor force rose by 6,260 people last month, 16,090 people over last year, and 24,592 people since February 2020. These figures result in a labor force participation rate of 59.5%, which is up from 58.9% from last year and up from 58.3% since pre-shutdown but well below the 61.2% rate in June 2009. While the unemployment rate of 3.6% is substantially lower than the 5.2% rate in February 2020, a broader look at Louisiana’s labor market shows that Louisianans still face challenges (see Figure 1). These challenges include the continued decline in the working-age population which weighs on the labor-market shortage and long-term economic growth and comparisons with neighboring states based on several measures indicate concerns. Economic Growth: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently provided the real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) and personal income for Louisiana and other states in Figure 2. Table 2 shows how U.S. and Louisiana economies performed since 2020. The steep declines were during the shutdowns in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was when the labor market suffered most. The increase in real GDP of +2.2% in Q4:2022 ranked 26th in the country, resulting in an annual decline in economic output by -1.8% in 2022 which was the second worst in the country. The BEA also reported that personal income in Louisiana grew at an annualized pace of +6.0% (ranked 32nd) in Q4:2022 (below +7.4% U.S. average). This resulted in personal income growth of 0.0% in 2022, ranking 50th of the states, driven by the negative $10 billion (-4.0-percentage points) in transfer payments from a decline in safety net payments as the expanded child tax credit expired and more people found jobs, but increases in net earnings by $8.4 billion (+3.4-percentage points) and other income by $1.6 billion (+0.6-percentage point). Personal income per person in Louisiana increased by 0.08% to $54,622 last year, which ranked 42nd in the country but the increase was well below inflation.
Bottom Line: More Louisianans gained jobs in April, but their pay hasn’t been keeping up with inflation in a stagnant economy. Economic freedom matters to human flourishing, but Louisiana ranks relatively low among the states in economic freedom and other measures. While the state improved its tax code in 2021, there’s a historic opportunity to ensure prosperity by doing more this session. The combination of spending restraint, not busting the spending caps, paying down debt, and putting money in the rainy day fund for tax relief now are essential. These steps would improve the state’s poor business tax climate, help curb the net outmigration of Louisianans, and help mitigate the 19.6% poverty rate that ranks second highest in the country. State and local policymakers should work to reverse this trend by passing pro-growth policies. Which pro-growth policies should be pursued? Refer to the Pelican Institute’s “Comeback Agenda” for policy recommendations related to the state’s budget and taxes, K-12 education, public safety, social safety nets and workforce development, technology and innovation, and reducing regulatory barriers. Originally published by Pelican Institute. Key Point: Texas is a leader in job creation over the last year and since February 2020 (Figure 1 by @SoquelCreek). But Texas will struggle to compete with other states or prosper more as the 88th Legislature passed the largest budget increase in the state’s history, passed the largest corporate welfare increases in the state’s history, passed the largest safety net increases in the state’s history, didn’t pass property tax relief, and didn’t pass school choice. Governor Greg Abbott called a special session to tackle property tax relief and border security with more special sessions likely to come. Overview: Texas has been a leader in the country’s economic recovery since the costly shutdown recession in Spring 2020. This includes reaching a new record high in total nonfarm employment for the 19th straight month. The current 88th Legislature ended the regular session on May 29 with a record surplus but chose to pass the largest spending and welfare increases in the state’s history without passing tax relief or school choice. This was a huge, missed opportunity for Texas that will set up a fiscal cliff with so much spending, less competition with fiscally conservative states, and less opportunity to let people prosper which combined will stop the Lone Star State from being a leader in the country. Fortunately, Governor Abbott called what is likely the first of multiple special sessions to tackle property tax relief (and border security). Labor Market: The best path to let people prosper is free-market capitalism as it is the best system that supports jobs and entrepreneurship for more people to earn a living, gain skills, and build social capital. Table 1 shows Texas’ labor market for April 2023. The establishment survey shows net nonfarm jobs in Texas increased by 33,300 last month, resulting in increases for 35 of the last 36 months, to bring record-high employment to 13.8 million. Compared with a year ago, total employment was up by 534,600 (+4.0%)--second fastest growth rate in the country to Nevada (+4.2%)—with the private sector adding 476,800 jobs (+4.2%) and the government adding 57,800 jobs (+2.9%). The household survey shows that the labor force participation rate is higher and employment-population rate is slightly lower than in February 2020, but the former is well below June 2009 at the trough of the Great Recession. The state’s unemployment rate of 4.0% is higher than the U.S. rate of 3.4% but this is weak indicator as it’s highly volatile based on changes in the labor force. There is also continued declining inflation-adjusted average earnings in Texas. Economic Growth: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the real gross domestic product (GDP) by state for 2022. Figure 2 shows Texas had the fifth fastest real GDP growth of +3.4% to $1.9 trillion (above the U.S. average of +2.1% to $20.0 trillion). The BEA also reported that personal income in Texas grew by 5.3% to $1.9 trillion in 2022 which was the third highest in the country. This is behind Idaho (+6.2%) and Colorado (+5.4%) but well above the U.S. growth rate of 2.4% (to $21.8 trillion). Figure 3 shows personal income growth across the country. Bottom Line: As Texans struggle from high inflation and high property taxes and an uncertain future with the U.S. economy likely in a deepening recession, they need substantial relief to help make ends meet. Other states are cutting, flattening, and phasing out taxes, passing responsible budgets, and passing school choice, so Texas must make bold reforms to support more opportunities to let people prosper, mitigate the affordability crisis, and withstand destructive policies out of D.C. Figure 4 provides a comparison of the size of government, economic freedom, and economic outcomes among the four largest states and nearby Louisiana. While Texas does relatively well, there is much more to do for more liberty and prosperity. Unfortunately, the Texas Legislature failed to achieve these needed policy objectives in the regular session of 2023 so Governor Greg Abbott is calling them back where the Legislature should spend less, provide more in property tax relief, pass school choice, and reduce or eliminate corporate welfare and expansions of safety net programs. Free-Market Solutions: The Texas Legislature should improve the Texas Model by:
This Week's Economy Ep 10 | Is U.S. in Recession? Will TX Pass Largest Spending Increase in HISTORY?5/26/2023 Today, I cover: 1) National: What's the latest on the debt ceiling deal, why I believe that the U.S. is in a recession based on the latest GDP report, and how inflation continues to indicate more aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed; 2) State-Level Jobs: I break down the latest state-level jobs report and share reasons for optimism and more with a focus on Texas and Louisiana. 3) Texas: What's going on with the current Texas legislative session, and why the proposed budget increase would be the largest spending increase in TX history while not passing the largest property tax relief in history. Plus, massive increases in corporate welfare, and large increases in social safety net spending, which would result in a disaster for Texans and the Texas economy. You can watch this episode and others along with my Let People Prosper Show on YouTube or listen to it on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Google Podcast, or Anchor (please share, subscribe, like, and leave a 5-star rating!).
For show notes, thoughtful insights, media interviews, speeches, blog posts, research, and more, check out my website (https://www.vanceginn.com/) and please subscribe to my newsletter on Substack, share this post, and leave a comment. You may have heard that the state of Louisiana is facing a “fiscal cliff” and this is why the Legislature shouldn’t reduce the taxes Louisianans pay to fund the government. This claim is based on assumptions that the state’s tax collections will decline dramatically from the expiration of the “temporary” sales tax rate hike of 45 cents in fiscal year 2025 and the potential for less tax collections from slower economic growth. But this doesn’t appear to be true. Instead, the latest reports of growth of net earnings and tax revenues in Louisiana indicate these claims of a “fiscal cliff” are likely overblown. In fact, these assumptions support a historic opportunity to provide much needed tax relief by hitting the revenue triggers for more money in Louisianans’ pockets and the need for legislators to restrain government spending. Add in the $3 billion in taxpayer money in the state’s savings accounts and we can see that the claims of a “fiscal cliff” are likely overblown. There has been strong growth in net earnings that support more income for Louisianans, which has resulted in higher taxes collected, and there’s plenty of money on the sidelines in case there’s a downturn. Instead of worrying about how the bloated government will grow, we must consider struggling taxpayers across Louisiana and ensure the revenue triggers are hit for tax relief. According to the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Louisiana’s personal income growth was stagnant at 0.0% to $250.7 billion in 2022, which declined when adjusting for inflation. But this was driven by the negative $10 billion (-4.0-percentage points) in transfer payments from a decline in safety net payments as the expanded child tax credit expired and more people found jobs. Just considering the factors that support increased economic growth and higher tax revenue, net earnings increased by $8.4 billion (+3.4-percentage points) and other income was up by $1.6 billion (+0.6-percentage point). And given that these gains in the productive part of the economy were in the industries that pay taxes such as manufacturing, wholesale trade, professional services, and health care, the trend of higher tax collections will likely continue thereby reducing the fear of a fiscal cliff. While there are economic headwinds with elevated inflation and rising interest rates from bad policies out of D.C., Louisiana must do more to help Louisianans withstand these headwinds. A pro-growth path forward includes passing a responsible budget, not busting the spending cap, paying down debt, and hitting the revenue triggers for tax relief. There have been strides to achieve these steps in the House’s budget. Table 1 shows that more spending restraint is necessary to pass a Responsible Louisiana Budget that holds spending growth to no more than the rate of population growth plus inflation, which is a good measure for the average taxpayer’s ability to pay for government spending. Table 1. Louisiana’s FY24 State Effort in House Budget Is Above Pelican’s Proposed Responsible Louisiana Budget But even if the maximum threshold of the proposed Responsible Louisiana Budget isn’t met, there’s a grand opportunity to put money into the rainy day fund to hit the triggers put in place in 2021 for substantial relief in personal income and corporate franchise taxes. The results of lower spending and lower taxes are clear from more fiscally conservative states like Florida and Texas compared with more spending and taxes like in fiscally profligate states like California and New York. Table 2 provides a comparison of these states with Louisiana in terms of economic freedom, burden government, economic prosperity, and poverty. Table 2. States with More Economic Freedom Have Better Economic Outcomes Notes: Dates in parentheses are for that year or the average of that period. Data shaded in red indicate “best,” and in blue indicate “worst” per category by state.
Economic prosperity happens when a robust private sector has a more competitive tax system, and this starts with spending restraint and limiting government. Louisiana has the keys to do this; now there needs to be political will to overcome the overblown fears of a “fiscal cliff.” If Louisiana doesn’t, there will be more losses of people and businesses. But if the Legislature achieves this pro-growth path, there will be more opportunity to let people prosper. Originally published at Pelican Institute. |
Vance Ginn, Ph.D.
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