Vance Ginn Economics
  • Home
  • About
  • CV
  • Media
  • Podcast/Speeches
  • Blog/Research
  • Research
  • Teaching
    • ECON 2301-Princ of Macro
    • ECON 2302-Princ of Micro
    • ECON 3352-Energy Eco
  • Home
  • About
  • CV
  • Media
  • Podcast/Speeches
  • Blog/Research
  • Research
  • Teaching
    • ECON 2301-Princ of Macro
    • ECON 2302-Princ of Micro
    • ECON 3352-Energy Eco

U.S. Oil Production Leads World & New Poverty Data: LPP EP 40

9/12/2018

 
In this let people prosper episode, I discuss two key reports released today. The first is that the Energy Information Administration reported that the U.S. oil production exceeded Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the top oil producer in the world in August 2018. The second is the Census Bureau released the latest income and poverty-related data that shows less poverty nationwide with little change in Texas' supplemental poverty measure (SPM) while California still has the highest SPM in the nation.  

Regarding the EIA's data, the following figure shows this historic moment in U.S. history. Here's the EIA's projection through 2019: "Although EIA does not publish crude oil production forecasts for Russia and Saudi Arabia in STEO, EIA expects that U.S. crude oil production will continue to exceed Russian and Saudi Arabian crude oil production for the remaining months of 2018 and through 2019." 

Much of this expansion in oil production has been in Texas. In fact, Texas is producing a record amount of oil at 4.4 million barrels per day as of June 2018 (latest data available), which is about 40% of total U.S. production that month. 
Picture
The increase in oil production in the last couple of years has contributed to faster economic growth and job creation, thereby helping to reduce the poverty rate. Of course, this is a relatively small direct relationship, but the indirect relationship of more production capacity in the private sector is quite remarkable. Moreover, the regulatory cuts last year and the general increased economic activity and job creation in recent years has helped get people out of poverty.

This is noted by poverty measures improving some in the latest report for the average of the 2015-17 period (see page 26-27 of this report). The Official Poverty Measure (OPM) looks at one poverty level across the entire nation with the federal poverty level of $12,752 for an individual and a family of four (two adults and two kids) of $24,858. The OPM declined to 12.9%, or 41.2 million, nationally for the average of 2015-17.

​However, the OPM is a poor measure of poverty because there are different housing costs in each state along with different levels of government benefits.

Several years ago the Census Bureau created the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) that accounts for after-tax income, differences in regional costs of housing and other expenditures, and government transfers (see figure below). The SPM declined to 14.1 percent, or 45.3 million, nationally.
Picture
These measures for the 2015-17 period are also available by state. Let's consider the two largest states: California and Texas. California's OPM is 13.4%, which is near the national average, with 5.3 million people in poverty, and SPM is 19%, which is the highest nationally, with 7.5 million in poverty. Texas' OPM is 14%, more than a percentage point higher than the national average, with 3.9 million people in poverty, and SPM is 14.7%, which is near the U.S. average, with 4.1 million in poverty.

These data make sense because Texas is a relatively cheaper place to live that in California so Texans' dollars go a lot further than Californians' even as California has a more liberal welfare state and spends much more per capita.
Picture
Melody Lane
9/13/2018 09:33:27 am

This is amazing. Thanks for sharing. Go Texas!!!


Comments are closed.

    Vance Ginn, Ph.D.
    Chief Economist
    ​TPPF
    ​#LetPeopleProsper

    Vance Ginn, Ph.D., is founder and president of Ginn Economic Consulting, LLC. He is chief economist at Pelican Institute for Public Policy and senior fellow at Young Americans for Liberty and other institutions. He previously served as the associate director for economic policy of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, 2019-20.

    Follow him on Twitter: @vanceginn

    View my profile on LinkedIn

    Archives

    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    January 2015
    November 2013
    September 2013
    May 2013
    February 2013
    August 2012
    July 2012
    January 2012
    May 2011
    April 2011

    Categories

    All
    Biden
    Book Reviews
    Budgets
    Capitalism
    Carbon Tax
    Congress
    COVID
    Debt
    Economic Freedom
    Economic Prosperity
    Economy
    Education
    Energy Markets
    Fed
    Free Trade
    Ginn Economic Brief
    Healthcare
    Immigration
    Inflation
    Interview
    Jobs Report
    Let People Prosper
    Licensing
    Louisiana
    Margin Tax
    Medicaid
    Minimum Wage
    Occupational Licensing
    Opportunity Project
    Pensions
    Podcast
    Poverty
    Property Taxes
    RAB
    Regulation
    Rules
    School Choice
    Socialism
    Spending Limits
    Taxes
    Tax Foundation
    Testimony
    Texas
    Transparency
    Video
    White House

    RSS Feed

Proudly powered by Weebly