Congress should scrap what’s currently being discussed in the next round of COVID-19-related recovery efforts. Instead, it should focus on getting businesses operating and workers working again after governments’ lockdowns severely disrupted the lives and livelihoods of Americans.
This can be done with the Foundation’s proposal of the Rehire America Workplace Recovery Act that includes the essential component of the free enterprise system: private property rights.
The proposal focuses on giving people the dignity of work by compensating businesses for cash losses incurred due to governments’ shutting down of society due to COVID-19. These net operating losses by businesses were realized from government lockdowns (beyond prior voluntary social distancing measures).
This proposal contrasts with much of the approach in Congress today that would prolong any economic weaknesses.
Handing out stimulus checks (some of which are erroneously sent to dead people) doesn’t get people working again. Extending overly generous unemployment benefits that exceed what 68% of Americans were earning disincentivizes work. And saturating profitable businesses with taxpayer dollars while letting too many small businesses go under fails, too.
The result of most of the current programs in Congress will be prolonged unemployment and weak growth. But our proposal would strengthen and shorten the recovery to let people prosper.
The COVID-19 economy has been one of records set in both directions.
The many disruptions during March and April plunged the country into a deep recession. The economy shed 22.2 million jobs, with the unemployment rate jumping from its historic low in February of 3.5% to 14.7% in April.
Though official second quarter GDP figures have yet to be released, analysts are expecting a 30-plus percent annual rate of contraction. By any comparison, the U.S. economy has never experienced such a quick reversal in its economic condition.
Though these numbers paint a bleak picture, there are more recent signs of optimism.
The U.S. labor market in May and June added 2.7 and 4.8 million jobs, respectively. Both figures were record highs. More hiring drove the unemployment rate down to 11.1% in June.
If this momentum continues, one would expect third quarter GDP to rebound from its projected second quarter low. Existing home sales rebounded in June, increasing by a record 20.7% providing additional evidence we’re likely in the beginnings of an economic recovery.
The Recovery Act’s compensation strategy would assist this rebound. It provides funding to help employers keep current employees and to rehire those laid off due to cost-cutting associated with the COVID-19 shutdowns.
It also conveys a core principle of effective programs in that it is self-terminating and temporary. A recipient’s participation in the program automatically ends once it’s no longer suffering cash losses or at the end of the program.
That’s the goal of the Recovery Act — to stabilize business operations to provide confidence for firms to retain and rehire employees. In fact, it places a compensation premium of 20% on rehiring furloughed workers. By compensating businesses for cash losses (including employee costs), this proposal aligns with an improving economy.
One of us estimated the economic and fiscal effects of this proposal depending on the duration from July to either September 2020 or February 2021 above the base case recovery over the next year. It would contribute to an extra $498 billion to $1.4 trillion in GDP, between 1.8 and 5.6 million new jobs, and cost taxpayers from $450 billion to $1.3 trillion.
Though a hefty price tag for the longer duration, the $1.3 trillion cost looks to be within what Congress has authorized but not disbursed yet from prior phases of economic aid so no new spending may be necessary if reallocated. If that’s not an option, the Act’s benefits outweigh the cost and would repay itself under six years. These results seem much better than the major packages considered by Congress.
The spirit of the Recovery Act is in a recent bipartisan bill called the Small Business Recovery Comeback Act so there’s a way to get this done for Americans. It could be improved by including more of the aspects that we’ve outlined above to make it cost-effective and time-constrained.
We need Congress to take a fresh start rather than funding the same flawed programs and principles. The Recovery Act is grounded in a free enterprise system. This is both an economic argument and a moral imperative to recover Americans’ livelihoods.
Vance Ginn, Ph.D.