The U.S. Jobs Report that Trump and DC Didn’t Want You to See

Originally published on Substack. 

​After the longest federal shutdown in U.S. history of 43 days, the September 2025 jobs report finally dropped on November 20–six weeks late—and what’s inside should raise alarms for anyone who cares about economic freedom, job creation, and the future of American prosperity.

In this issue, I break down why two of the last four months had negative job growth, why private-sector hiring is barely budging, why declining government jobs are good for growth, and how tariff-tax hikes are dragging down workers across the country. I also explain why the Supreme Court will play a critical role in restoring economic sanity.

Let’s dig in.

​Figure 1: Total Nonfarm Payroll Monthly Change

As the Wall Street Journal observed in their coverage of the delayed release, the timing clouded an already weak labor-market picture. (WSJ: Delayed Jobs Report — September 2025)

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), only 119,000 jobs were added in September. But the deeper story lies in the revisions: nonfarm employment was negative in two of the last four months once adjustments were included. July and August were revised down 33,000 jobs combined, flipping August from a gain to a loss.

BLS noted the shutdown gave firms more time to self-report payroll numbers, raising the collection rate to 80.2%. That may explain why revisions were smaller than earlier this year—not because the economy is stronger, but because the agency simply had more time to gather data.

The weakness is real.

Private-Sector Job Growth Barely Positive—While Government Jobs Shrink (Finally)

Figure 2: Private Payrolls Monthly Change

Here’s the part most media outlets gloss over: Private-sector hiring is slightly higher than the headline number because government employment is shrinking.

Federal government jobs fell by 3,000 in September and are down 97,000 since January. State and local government hiring is flat.

This is one of the few bright spots. Government does not create wealth—it consumes it. Lower government payrolls relieve pressure on the private economy, which funds everything.

But the bigger concern: even without government weighing down the numbers, private-sector hiring is still painfully slow. That means the problem isn’t the composition of employment. It’s federal policy itself.

This fits the pattern I’ve documented in my writings (see vanceginn.com):

When Washington overspends, overregulates, and tries to micromanage the economy, job growth stalls.

Tariff Taxes Are Killing Momentum — And the Supreme Court Must Step In

The timing isn’t subtle: the labor market flattened almost immediately after the administration rolled out its 2025 tariff tax hikes.

Tariffs raise the cost of producing, hiring, and investing. They are taxes on American workers and consumers—not foreign governments.

Even worse, they represent a constitutional problem: no president should have unilateral power to raise taxes through tariffs. The Founders intended the power of the purse to rest with Congress, not the executive.

If the Supreme Court reins in this overreach, it will be a victory for liberty, markets, and rule of law.

Household Employment Flat or Falling Since January

Insert Figure 3: Labor Force Participation Rate

While payroll data gets headlines, the household survey tells the real story:

• Employment has been flat or declining for nearly a year.
• Unemployment rose to 7.6 million people.
• Long-term unemployment remains high at 1.8 million.
• Part-time work for economic reasons remains elevated.

Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate is stuck at 62.4%—well below historical norms.

Even the prime-age employment-to-population ratio, often touted as a sign of strength, has stalled. This is a labor market pushing against policy headwinds.

A Sustainable Spending Limit Is Needed

A shrinking government workforce is encouraging, but it won’t matter unless Washington tackles the core problem: runaway government spending that crowds out private activity.

America needs spending cuts then a sustainable, population-plus-inflation spending limit—a rule that forces discipline, protects taxpayers, and spurs long-run prosperity.

Spending limits work. States and countries that adopt them thrive.
​
The delayed September jobs report revealed what the federal shutdown couldn’t hide:

• Two of the last four months saw negative job growth.
• Private-sector hiring is barely moving.
• Government jobs are declining—which is good—but the private economy is still sluggish.
• Tariff taxes are stifling investment and hiring.
• Household employment is flat.
• Participation is stuck.
• The labor market is weak—and policy is making it weaker.

​America can do better. And it will—if Washington stops standing in the way.

Bottom Line

This month’s jobs report confirms what many families already feel: the labor market isn’t delivering the opportunity it should. Tariff taxes, regulation, and overspending are weighing down a private sector ready to innovate and grow.

The best path forward is simple: less government, more freedom, and strong fiscal rules that protect workers instead of political interests.