Tariffs Aren’t Paying the Bills—And Washington’s Spending Binge Is Out of Control

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Originally published on Substack. 

​A recent Wall Street Journal article provides the charts below that tell a story that’s as old as Washington’s promises: the federal government keeps spending money it doesn’t have—and pretending it’s solving problems while creating new ones.

In FY2025, the U.S. government collected nearly $200 billion in tariffs, a record high according to the Treasury Department and CBO. That’s more than double what it collected just an year ago. Tariffs are supposed to make foreign companies “pay,” but in reality, they’re taxes on Americans. Every imported product—steel, farm equipment, even groceries—costs more. Tariffs don’t punish China; they punish the American people.
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Even with all that extra tariff revenue, Washington’s finances are a disaster.

The federal deficit remains stuck near 6% of GDP, among the worst in decades. Defense spending keeps climbing. Entitlement programs—Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid—are eating up more of the budget every year. The CBO’s preliminary data for FY2025 shows that these programs now exceed $3 trillion annually, while overall spending continues to soar across nearly every department.

The result: higher debt, higher interest payments, and slower growth. This isn’t sustainable.

Tariffs don’t come close to paying the bills. They’re a political illusion—a short-term cash grab that hides long-term economic pain. The chart showing “net customs duties” rising sharply should alarm anyone who understands basic economics. You can’t tax your way to prosperity. You can’t trade-war your way to wealth. Every dollar the government takes in tariffs is a dollar squeezed out of consumers and producers.

And yet, the same Washington that collects record tariffs turns around and hands out record subsidies. Take agriculture. The USDA recently announced plans to buy 417,000 metric tons of corn and sorghum for international food aid—funded in part by tariff revenue. Farmers may appreciate the relief, but it’s the wrong kind of help. The government first hurts them with protectionist policies that cut export markets, then “saves” them with bailouts funded by those same policies. It’s economic whiplash—Washington as both arsonist and firefighter.

Meanwhile, programs like the Department of Agriculture’s spending continue to grow, with no signs of restraint. The truth is that farmers don’t need bailouts—they need freedom to sell to global markets without government interference. When government micromanages markets, it distorts prices, rewards political connections, and punishes efficiency.

This fiscal and trade chaos is the perfect storm:

• Tariffs = hidden taxes on families and businesses.
• Subsidies = distortions that reward inefficiency.
• Deficits = delayed pain, because debt eventually demands repayment.

The solution isn’t more Washington tinkering—it’s getting Washington out of the way. Real prosperity comes from free markets, not managed trade. The Trump administration’s goal should be to cut tariffs, restrain spending, and refocus on pro-growth tax and regulatory reform. That’s the formula that worked in the past and the one that can rebuild confidence today.

As the federal deficit plunges deeper, the charts tell the story better than any speech: Washington is addicted to spending, and it’s trying to fund the addiction by taxing trade and bailing out its mistakes. America deserves better than this cycle of economic self-sabotage.
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It’s time to stop pretending tariffs can pay the bills or that bailouts create prosperity. The only path to a freer, stronger America is through fiscal discipline, sound money, and free trade—the very principles that let people prosper.