 Originally posted on X. Don’t let April’s jobs report fool you. Yes, 177,000 jobs were added. But dig a little deeper, and the labor market shows signs of weakness—and what’s coming next could make things worse. Private sector job growth was 167,000, led by health care and transportation. These aren’t bad jobs but aren’t engines of productivity or broad-based opportunity. Meanwhile, total government jobs rose by 10,000, driven by state and local growth, while the federal government shed 9,000 jobs. The economy needs less bureaucracy and less government spending. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, but long-term unemployment jumped to 1.7 million—nearly 1 in 4 unemployed Americans has been out of work for over six months. Labor force participation remains at 62.6%, with millions of work-capable adults still sitting out of the labor force due to broken welfare programs, poor education pipelines, and regulatory barriers to opportunity. But one of the most important—and most overlooked—signals is this: real average weekly earnings have been down 2.3% since 2021.  That’s not just a statistic. It means working Americans are getting poorer. Even if they’re employed, their dollars don’t stretch as far. Families are working just as hard—or harder—but falling behind. That’s not a healthy economy. That’s a silent pay cut, gutting the middle class.
Even worse, February and March job growth were revised down by a combined 58,000. The slowdown is happening—lagging data are just masking it. And here's what most analysts are missing: this data doesn’t yet reflect the full damage of President Trump’s tariffs, trade war, and uncertainty. Businesses rushed to import goods in Q1 before new tariffs were expected to kick in, artificially boosting inventories and softening the blow to GDP. But inventories are volatile—they don’t last. Strip them out, and Q1 GDP would have looked even worse than the -0.3% headline suggests. Q2 could be uglier. Tariffs are simply taxes on Americans and productivity. They drive up the cost of raw materials, intermediate goods, and finished products. Those costs ripple through the economy, raising prices, slowing hiring, and discouraging investment. The result? Fewer jobs and even lower real wages. President Trump’s second term provides a critical opportunity to reverse this path. The answer isn’t protectionism—it’s productivity. It’s pro-growth reform, not more barriers to prosperity. Here’s what we need now:
We need fewer headlines and more results. Working Americans deserve a system that rewards effort, not punishes it with inflation, taxes, and regulation. The slowdown is here, and the policies that caused it must be replaced by policies that let people prosper.
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 Originally posted to Kansas Policy Institute.
Kansas has potential — everyone knows it. Strong communities, a central location, and good, hard-working people. However, when it comes to economic growth, job creation, and opportunities, the state is improving but there’s more work to do. And now that the 2025 legislative session is over, the real question is: Did lawmakers do enough to help Kansas grow — or did they play it too safe again? Let’s start with what’s at stake. In the past year, Kansas added only 900 net new jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s nearly flat in a state with a workforce of 1.6 million. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, up from 3.3% the previous year. It’s still below the national average, but it’s trending in the wrong direction, highlighting just how sluggish the labor market has become. Additionally, Kansas’s economy grew by only 1.0% in 2024, compared to the national economy’s 2.8% growth, as reported in the latest GDP data. Personal income rose 4.6% in the fourth quarter — but that barely keeps up with inflation, and it doesn’t help much when job growth is this weak. So what did lawmakers do about it this year? They passed some good bills. But not nearly enough. To their credit, the Kansas Legislature overrode the governor’s veto of Senate Bill 269, a major step toward continued tax reform. The bill establishes a responsible framework to lower the state income tax to a flat 4%, provided certain conditions are met, including strong revenue growth and a healthy Budget Stabilization Fund. It’s a brilliant idea: tying tax cuts to budget discipline is a far better approach than tax giveaways based on guesses. Governor Laura Kelly vetoed the bill, calling it risky. But the Legislature did the right thing by overriding her. Kansans deserve a flatter, simpler, more competitive tax code — and SB 269 gets us one step closer. But here’s the problem: lawmakers stopped short of what’s needed. There was no serious push for a universal school choice program — not even a modest Education Savings Accounts (ESAs) or a tax credit program like our southern neighbors. At a time when other states are giving parents more control over their children’s education, Kansas is standing still. Families in Wichita, Topeka, Garden City, and across the Sunflower State are still confined to government-assigned schools, regardless of their performance or suitability. There was no real action to limit government spending, despite spending having grown far faster than Kansans’ ability to pay for it for years. Over the last decade, Kansas has spent approximately $20 billion more in state funds than it would have if it had maintained growth in line with population plus inflation. That’s money that could’ve been used for deeper tax cuts or to pay down debt (we’re looking at your state pension systems). What the Legislature did pass was a mix of narrow reforms and targeted incentives. A few examples:
If Kansas is serious about competing — not just with neighboring states like Missouri and Oklahoma, but with places like Florida, Texas, and Arizona — then lawmakers need to think bigger and act bolder. That means:
There’s too much at stake to let another session come and go without real reform.  Originally posted with Deane Waldman, M.D., MBA at The Center Square.
“Cutting Medicaid will cost lives.” That’s the dire warning echoing through media headlines and political speeches as Congress and the Trump administration consider tightening eligibility and trimming the Medicaid program. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and others claim these cuts are heartless, as millions of people will lose coverage. But the media – and much of the political left – are avoiding reality. Reducing Medicaid’s bloated rolls isn’t a death sentence. It’s the first step toward saving a healthcare system that overwhelms patients with bureaucracy, starves doctors of payment, and fails to deliver timely care to the truly vulnerable. Medicaid reform is necessary to help address the unsustainable federal budget and improve patient care. Let’s start with the facts. In 2024, more than 79 million Americans were enrolled in Medicaid, with another 7 million children on CHIP. That’s nearly one in four Americans on government-run health insurance. Medicaid spending hit $817.7 billion, almost as much as the Department of Defense. That’s over $10,000 per enrollee, a staggering cost that doesn’t match the quality of care received. Why? Medicaid is no longer targeted at the poor and medically fragile. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Congress expanded eligibility, suspending redetermination reviews. Millions of healthy, work-capable adults were added to the rolls. Today, with the pandemic over and the labor market tighter, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates more than 60% of those newly eligible adults are back at work. Yet they remain on Medicaid, crowding out resources intended for the most vulnerable. This misalignment creates a phenomenon we call the “seesaw effect” – as enrollment increases, access to care decreases. The seesaw works when enrollment increases, resulting in more money being spent on insurance, as well as complying with and administering federal regulations. Since more healthcare dollars are allocated to nonclinical, bureaucratic processes, fewer dollars are available for patient care. Less money for care without lower prices results in less availability of care. Evidence of this is what happened after the passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2010. Average wait times to see a primary care physician in mid-sized U.S. cities ballooned from 99 days to 122 days after the ACA expanded Medicaid. Under the Biden administration, it climbed to an unconscionable 132 days. That’s more than four months to get an appointment – assuming you can even find a doctor who accepts Medicaid. Nationwide, one-third of doctors no longer do. In Texas, fewer than half of physicians are willing to accept new Medicaid patients. Why? Bureaucratic red tape and reimbursement rates often don’t cover basic healthcare costs. Medicaid patients may have an insurance card, but many still struggle to access care when they need it. In Illinois, medical audits revealed that 752 Medicaid recipients died waiting – literally – from being stuck in bureaucratic queues. We’ve seen the same story unfold at the VA with veterans having Tricare insurance: people given a promise of care, only to die waiting in line. This is not compassion. It’s cruelty masquerading as generosity. And it’s not just inadequate access – it’s poor stewardship. At least 30% but likely closer to 50% of U.S. healthcare spending is wasted – lost to administrative overhead, compliance burdens, or outright fraud. Medicaid is a prime offender, with limited accountability and massive layers of state and federal bureaucracy siphoning off dollars from care providers. Let’s be clear: spending more money is not the same as improving care. A system that fails to deliver quality care isn’t solved with more funding – it’s fixed by reforming the system. The solution starts with responsible, targeted cuts. Return Medicaid to its original purpose: helping the truly needy – low-income children, pregnant women, seniors, and people with disabilities. Reinstate work requirements for work-capable adults. Allow states more flexibility through block grants or waiver programs. Expand private-market solutions, such as direct primary care and health savings accounts, and promote price and quality transparency through market competition, rather than coercive government mandates. These reforms will help lower federal spending and improve healthcare access. When fewer healthy people crowd the system unnecessarily, doctors have more time and resources to serve those needing care. By lowering the left side of the “seesaw” through tightening eligibility, we raise the right side – access to real care. We can do better than an essentially government-run healthcare monopoly that offers the illusion of coverage but fails at the one job that matters: delivering timely care. True reform doesn’t mean abandoning the poor. It means ensuring they aren’t trapped in a broken system that serves politicians and bureaucrats, not patients and doctors. A free-market approach – rooted in personal responsibility, transparency, and innovation – is how we bring costs down, increase access, and bring compassion back into healthcare. Don’t believe the scare tactics. The real threat isn’t reform, it’s pretending the current system is working when it isn’t. How much government is too much? In this episode of the Let People Prosper Show, I sit down with Richard Stern, Director of the Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget at the Heritage Foundation, to discuss the moral and economic urgency of cutting government spending, restoring community, and reclaiming freedom.
Richard shares his journey from a progressive upbringing to becoming a free-market champion, shaped by a background in engineering, a calling to public service, and a deep belief in individual agency and faith. For more insights, visit vanceginn.com and get even greater value with a subscription to my Substack newsletter at vanceginn.substack.com. (0:00) – Introduction (2:16) – From progressive roots to economic liberty (6:34) – The role of faith and economic worldview (10:44) – Lessons from student government (16:10) – Behind the scenes of government budgeting (26:53) – Shrinking the size and scope of government (32:55) – The truth about tax burdens (41:27) – Trade, tariffs, and the case for reform (56:12) – Why faith and freedom go hand in hand  These are my prepared remarks for a keynote speech on April 24, 2025 at the Pennsylvania Aggregates and Concrete Association ( PACA) meetings in State College, PA. Thank you for having me. It’s a privilege to be with you here in State College, Pennsylvania—home to hard hats, strong backs, big trucks, and folks who actually know how to get things built. Now, I’m just an economist, which means I can explain tomorrow why what I predicted yesterday didn’t happen today—but at least I brought charts and conviction! In all seriousness, I want to acknowledge the outstanding work of the Pennsylvania Aggregates and Concrete Association (PACA). You're not just producers of crushed stone, ready-mix concrete, sand and gravel, and cement. You are builders of roads, homes, and businesses—the very foundation of freedom and prosperity. You represent over 200 companies across this state, many of which are family-owned, multi-generational businesses rooted in local communities. You're proof that economic growth and environmental stewardship are not mutually exclusive. Aggregates are among the most abundant resources on earth, essential to agriculture, construction, and transportation. Congress has recognized them as critical to our national security and economic stability. In Pennsylvania, you make that mission real. This state ranks second nationally in crushed stone production, behind only Texas, my home state. In 2019, you helped produce part of America’s 1.53 billion tons of crushed stone. PennDOT is your largest customer. That speaks volumes about the strategic importance of your industry. You keep the country moving—literally. And yet, you face challenges: rising input costs, outdated regulations, labor shortages, and tariffs that penalize your progress. That’s why we’re here today. Because this moment isn’t just about reacting—it’s about resetting. It’s about laying a new foundation for freedom, competitiveness, and certainty. Now, if you’re feeling frustrated or confused by what’s happening in the economy, you’re not alone. That feeling is real. I’ve felt it too. Let me ask you a question: how many of you here today are perfect? Anyone? Well, I certainly wasn’t in my late teens and early 20s. Back then, I wasn’t dreaming of federal budgets—I was dreaming of being a rock star. I played drums in a Houston-based band called Sindrome. We were doing pretty well, gigging around town, chasing the dream. I was living in the moment, caught up in the lifestyle, and not thinking much about tomorrow. But life has a way of waking you up. I grew up in a single-mom household in South Houston, Texas. My mom dropped out of high school in the 10th grade and worked multiple jobs. She gave everything so that my sister and I had a chance. As a teenager, I didn’t dream of economic policy. I wanted to be a rock drummer. Then came May 25, 2002. I was riding shotgun, racing another car at 120 miles per hour, when we clipped another vehicle. We rolled six times and skidded upside down for 40 yards. I was life-flighted to Hermann Hospital. I walked out that night, miraculously. That crash didn’t end my life—it gave it direction. It was the moment I knew I needed a new foundation. My life couldn’t be built on adrenaline and chance. It had to be built on something real. I realized I was building my life on sand. I needed a foundation. I found that foundation in faith, family, and freedom. I attended college at Texas Tech University, where I earned my Ph.D. in economics, taught classes there and Sam Houston State University, led policy initiatives in Texas at the Texas Public Policy Foundation for about a decade, and then served as the Chief Economist in the the first Trump White House’s Office of Management and Budget. I helped write a budget that saved $4.6 trillion. But when lockdowns came, and liberty gave way to fear and control, I knew I had to step away and speak out. So while today’s economic climate may feel chaotic, let me be clear: certainty starts with you. It begins in your home, your business, your principles—and we need that now more than ever. Section I: The Economic Storm—2025 Realities The U.S. economy in 2025 stands at a crossroads. While March brought a temporary boost in new single-family home sales, spurred by a short-lived drop in mortgage rates, the underlying fundamentals remain shaky. Inflation has persisted above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Interest rates remain high. Borrowing costs continue to stifle investment, especially in construction and manufacturing. Milton Friedman once said, “Inflation is taxation without legislation.” And right now, American families and businesses are paying the price. The Biden administration left behind an economy propped up by artificial stimulus, loose monetary policy, and runaway federal spending. It wasn’t sustainable. And now, with a new administration attempting to course-correct, businesses are waiting. Markets are pausing. Families are hesitant. It’s not just uncertainty—it’s compounded fragility. And when uncertainty collides with fragility, the result is paralysis. Economic momentum slows. Investment dries up. Innovation gets shelved. We’ve seen this before. The 1970s were marked by similar policy missteps: high taxes, excessive regulation, and central bank mistakes. That era gave us stagflation—high inflation, low growth, and rising unemployment. We can’t afford to repeat that mistake. We must instead chart a course that embraces economic freedom, spending restraint, and policy predictability. Section II: Trump’s First 100 Days—Opportunities and Unknowns The return of the Trump administration offers both hope and uncertainty. There’s a clear agenda for tax reform, deregulation, and infrastructure revitalization. However, there are also signs of policy whiplash, particularly in the areas of trade and tariffs. The Trump tax cuts, known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, helped drive growth in the past. But unless extended, much of those tax cuts will expire in 2025. The state should permanently lower marginal tax rates, maintain full expensing, and index capital gains to inflation. Anything less risks undoing the progress made over the last decade. At the same time, tariffs are once again taking center stage. Whether it’s steel, aluminum, or aggregates, these are taxes on progress. Tariffs don’t punish foreign companies—they punish American builders. Let’s be clear: you can’t build a strong economy while taxing the materials that make it. Section III: The Construction Economy—Aggregates, Concrete, and Opportunity Let’s talk about what you know best: building. The construction sector employs over 8.3 million Americans and generates $2.1 trillion in annual economic activity. Every $1 billion in new construction supports more than 6,000 jobs. Aggregates are the backbone of every road, every foundation, and every bridge. Concrete is the world’s most used construction material—for good reason. It’s durable, sustainable, and indispensable. In Pennsylvania, this industry matters. The state ranks second in the country in crushed stone production. In 2024, it produced nearly 9.6 million tons of sand and gravel, as well as over 8.7 million cubic yards of ready-mix concrete. However, rising input costs, labor shortages, and tariffs are placing a significant strain on your operations. And when regulations delay projects, it's not just frustrating—it’s expensive. These burdens increase your bids, squeeze your margins, and delay the jobs your workers are ready to do. Imagine if we reversed that. Streamlined permitting. Lower tariffs. Smarter tax policy. Predictable regulatory enforcement. That’s the kind of certainty this industry needs—and it’s the kind of certainty that starts from the bottom up. Section IV: Pennsylvania’s Fiscal and Economic Reality Pennsylvania has enormous potential, but its fiscal policies are holding it back. From 2015 to 2024, the state spent and taxed $76.1 billion more than it should have, had it followed population growth plus inflation. In all funds, that number rises to $174.8 billion. That’s over $10,000 per person. Here’s what that overreach looks like:
Section V: The Classical Liberal Framework I don’t put my faith in politicians, whether they wear red or blue. I put my faith in Jesus Christ first, then free people. Classical liberalism isn’t about being moderate—it’s about being principled. It’s about decentralizing power, protecting property rights, and ensuring opportunity through voluntary exchange, not mandates and programs. It’s the philosophy of Adam Smith, of Hayek, of Friedman. It’s the philosophy that built the most prosperous societies in history—and the one we must recommit to today. Section VI: Closing—Certainty Starts With You So what now? We don’t wait for Washington. We don’t wait for Harrisburg. Certainty starts with you. With how you lead your business, your employees, and your community. We choose freedom over fear. Discipline over deficits. Opportunity over dependency. Let’s reject protectionism. Let’s end cronyism. Let’s empower individuals. Let’s choose Friedman over favors. Hayek over hubris. Jefferson over justifications. Let’s go build—not just roads and bridges—but a country where we truly let people prosper. Thank you. Let’s get to work. |
Vance Ginn, Ph.D.
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