Here’s Why Trump Should Approve the Nippon Steel Deal

Originally published at TabbFORUM.

President Donald Trump’s tariff pause may help a Japanese company keep U.S. Steel from going bankrupt. That would be a big win for Americans – and it’s a textbook case of free markets improving people’s lives.

Trade is often talked about in numbers—deficits, surpluses, tariff rates—but at its core, it’s about people. Every time someone trades, they’re doing it because both sides benefit. It doesn’t matter whether you’re a welder in Iowa buying equipment from Indiana or a farmer in Texas exporting grain to Taiwan. Trade happens when people can choose what’s best for their families, businesses, and communities. That’s the moral case for free trade—it respects people’s decisions, not government dictates.

And the more we trade, the more we specialize, innovate, and grow. It’s how America became the most powerful economy in history and how billions of people worldwide have been brought out of destitution and poverty. If you like your iPhone that can call across the globe, the car that keeps your family safe, and the heating system that keeps everyone warm in the winter, you can thank the trading norms developed in the last 80 years.

That’s not just Econ 101—it’s common sense that puts prosperity over politics.

This brings us to Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel. Japan is one of America’s strongest economic allies and a bulwark against Chinese expansion and aggression. Trump had a good relationship with then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during his first term, and the current PM seems eager to use the tariff pause as an opportunity to reduce harmful trade barriers.

Opposed by both the Biden administration and then President-Elect Trump, the acquisition was blocked in January on national security grounds. President Trump now seems open to approving the deal, which would strongly signal that the U.S. is open for business and welcomes a $21 billion investment in American workers, factories in Pennsylvania and Indiana, and the overall steel industry. It’s the exact type of foreign investment Trump has been promising since he entered politics a decade ago.

If this deal fails, America will lose more than long-term corporate investment and strategic partnerships with Japan. It could chill further investments from countries like South Korea and India, which have already reached out to Trump about reducing trade barriers. Steel is just one part of the equation—full decoupling from China requires alliances for batteries, chips, and efficient supply chains.

And it will absolutely cause domestic harm, as more and more steelworker jobs are shipped overseas.

I have always opposed tariffs, including when I was Chief Economist for the Office of Management & Budget in Trump’s first term. Trump’s pause has provided opportunities for pro-growth deals like the ones he is discussing with countries across the globe. The right approach will bring foreign domestic investment from companies like Nippon Steel that will sideline China, strengthen U.S. economic relationships, and support domestic manufacturing.

Free trade, rooted in liberty and trust in the individual, helps us produce more, consume more, and invest in a better future. That’s not just economics—it’s the foundation of American opportunity. It’s the America First approach to creating global prosperity.