Certainty Starts With You: Navigating Through Economic Chaos

These are my prepared remarks for a keynote speech on April 24, 2025 at the Pennsylvania Aggregates and Concrete Association ( PACA) meetings in State College, PA. 

Thank you for having me. It’s a privilege to be with you here in State College, Pennsylvania—home to hard hats, strong backs, big trucks, and folks who actually know how to get things built. Now, I’m just an economist, which means I can explain tomorrow why what I predicted yesterday didn’t happen today—but at least I brought charts and conviction!

In all seriousness, I want to acknowledge the outstanding work of the Pennsylvania Aggregates and Concrete Association (PACA). You're not just producers of crushed stone, ready-mix concrete, sand and gravel, and cement. You are builders of roads, homes, and businesses—the very foundation of freedom and prosperity. You represent over 200 companies across this state, many of which are family-owned, multi-generational businesses rooted in local communities. You're proof that economic growth and environmental stewardship are not mutually exclusive.

Aggregates are among the most abundant resources on earth, essential to agriculture, construction, and transportation. Congress has recognized them as critical to our national security and economic stability. In Pennsylvania, you make that mission real. This state ranks second nationally in crushed stone production, behind only Texas, my home state. In 2019, you helped produce part of America’s 1.53 billion tons of crushed stone. PennDOT is your largest customer. That speaks volumes about the strategic importance of your industry.

You keep the country moving—literally. And yet, you face challenges: rising input costs, outdated regulations, labor shortages, and tariffs that penalize your progress. That’s why we’re here today. Because this moment isn’t just about reacting—it’s about resetting. It’s about laying a new foundation for freedom, competitiveness, and certainty.

Now, if you’re feeling frustrated or confused by what’s happening in the economy, you’re not alone. That feeling is real. I’ve felt it too. Let me ask you a question: how many of you here today are perfect? Anyone? Well, I certainly wasn’t in my late teens and early 20s. Back then, I wasn’t dreaming of federal budgets—I was dreaming of being a rock star.

I played drums in a Houston-based band called Sindrome. We were doing pretty well, gigging around town, chasing the dream. I was living in the moment, caught up in the lifestyle, and not thinking much about tomorrow. But life has a way of waking you up. I grew up in a single-mom household in South Houston, Texas. My mom dropped out of high school in the 10th grade and worked multiple jobs. She gave everything so that my sister and I had a chance.

As a teenager, I didn’t dream of economic policy. I wanted to be a rock drummer. Then came May 25, 2002. I was riding shotgun, racing another car at 120 miles per hour, when we clipped another vehicle. We rolled six times and skidded upside down for 40 yards. I was life-flighted to Hermann Hospital. I walked out that night, miraculously. That crash didn’t end my life—it gave it direction. It was the moment I knew I needed a new foundation. My life couldn’t be built on adrenaline and chance. It had to be built on something real. I realized I was building my life on sand. I needed a foundation.
I found that foundation in faith, family, and freedom. I attended college at Texas Tech University, where I earned my Ph.D. in economics, taught classes there and Sam Houston State University, led policy initiatives in Texas at the Texas Public Policy Foundation for about a decade, and then served as the Chief Economist in the the first Trump White House’s Office of Management and Budget. I helped write a budget that saved $4.6 trillion. But when lockdowns came, and liberty gave way to fear and control, I knew I had to step away and speak out.

So while today’s economic climate may feel chaotic, let me be clear: certainty starts with you. It begins in your home, your business, your principles—and we need that now more than ever.

Section I: The Economic Storm—2025 Realities
The U.S. economy in 2025 stands at a crossroads. While March brought a temporary boost in new single-family home sales, spurred by a short-lived drop in mortgage rates, the underlying fundamentals remain shaky. Inflation has persisted above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Interest rates remain high. Borrowing costs continue to stifle investment, especially in construction and manufacturing.

Milton Friedman once said, “Inflation is taxation without legislation.” And right now, American families and businesses are paying the price.

The Biden administration left behind an economy propped up by artificial stimulus, loose monetary policy, and runaway federal spending. It wasn’t sustainable. And now, with a new administration attempting to course-correct, businesses are waiting. Markets are pausing. Families are hesitant.

It’s not just uncertainty—it’s compounded fragility. And when uncertainty collides with fragility, the result is paralysis. Economic momentum slows. Investment dries up. Innovation gets shelved. We’ve seen this before. The 1970s were marked by similar policy missteps: high taxes, excessive regulation, and central bank mistakes. That era gave us stagflation—high inflation, low growth, and rising unemployment. We can’t afford to repeat that mistake. We must instead chart a course that embraces economic freedom, spending restraint, and policy predictability.

Section II: Trump’s First 100 Days—Opportunities and Unknowns
The return of the Trump administration offers both hope and uncertainty.

There’s a clear agenda for tax reform, deregulation, and infrastructure revitalization. However, there are also signs of policy whiplash, particularly in the areas of trade and tariffs. The Trump tax cuts, known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, helped drive growth in the past. But unless extended, much of those tax cuts will expire in 2025.

The state should permanently lower marginal tax rates, maintain full expensing, and index capital gains to inflation. Anything less risks undoing the progress made over the last decade. At the same time, tariffs are once again taking center stage. Whether it’s steel, aluminum, or aggregates, these are taxes on progress. Tariffs don’t punish foreign companies—they punish American builders.

Let’s be clear: you can’t build a strong economy while taxing the materials that make it.

Section III: The Construction Economy—Aggregates, Concrete, and Opportunity
Let’s talk about what you know best: building. The construction sector employs over 8.3 million Americans and generates $2.1 trillion in annual economic activity. Every $1 billion in new construction supports more than 6,000 jobs. Aggregates are the backbone of every road, every foundation, and every bridge. Concrete is the world’s most used construction material—for good reason. It’s durable, sustainable, and indispensable. In Pennsylvania, this industry matters. The state ranks second in the country in crushed stone production. In 2024, it produced nearly 9.6 million tons of sand and gravel, as well as over 8.7 million cubic yards of ready-mix concrete.

However, rising input costs, labor shortages, and tariffs are placing a significant strain on your operations. And when regulations delay projects, it's not just frustrating—it’s expensive. These burdens increase your bids, squeeze your margins, and delay the jobs your workers are ready to do. Imagine if we reversed that. Streamlined permitting. Lower tariffs. Smarter tax policy. Predictable regulatory enforcement. That’s the kind of certainty this industry needs—and it’s the kind of certainty that starts from the bottom up.

Section IV: Pennsylvania’s Fiscal and Economic Reality
Pennsylvania has enormous potential, but its fiscal policies are holding it back. From 2015 to 2024, the state spent and taxed $76.1 billion more than it should have, had it followed population growth plus inflation. In all funds, that number rises to $174.8 billion. That’s over $10,000 per person.

Here’s what that overreach looks like:

• Income tax rate: 3.07% (39th nationally)
• Corporate tax rate: 7.99% (42nd)
• Property taxes: 1.35% of housing value (12th highest)
• State-local tax burden: 10.6% (28th)

And what’s the result?

• Economic performance rank: 44th
• Regulatory policy rank: 37th
• Labor force participation rank: 33rd
• Poverty rate rank: 30th

Compare this with Texas, where I live, not because it’s perfect, but because it shows a different path. Texas has no personal income tax, a constitutional spending limit, and strong in-migration and business formation. Economic activity is one of the highest in the country. Pennsylvania has the resources, the workforce, and the will. But it needs the right policies—ones that trust people, not bureaucracies.

Section V: The Classical Liberal Framework
I don’t put my faith in politicians, whether they wear red or blue. I put my faith in Jesus Christ first, then free people. Classical liberalism isn’t about being moderate—it’s about being principled. It’s about decentralizing power, protecting property rights, and ensuring opportunity through voluntary exchange, not mandates and programs. It’s the philosophy of Adam Smith, of Hayek, of Friedman. It’s the philosophy that built the most prosperous societies in history—and the one we must recommit to today.

Section VI: Closing—Certainty Starts With You
So what now?

We don’t wait for Washington. We don’t wait for Harrisburg. Certainty starts with you. With how you lead your business, your employees, and your community. We choose freedom over fear. Discipline over deficits. Opportunity over dependency. Let’s reject protectionism. Let’s end cronyism. Let’s empower individuals. Let’s choose Friedman over favors. Hayek over hubris. Jefferson over justifications.

Let’s go build—not just roads and bridges—but a country where we truly let people prosper.

Thank you. Let’s get to work.​