Black Friday: The Real Cost of Overspending

Originally published on Substack. 

​Black Friday always tells us something about the economy. This year, it tells us everything.

The National Retail Federation expects a record 186.9 million shoppers, the most ever. If you only read headlines, you’d think Americans are overflowing with confidence. They aren’t.
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According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence fell to 88.7 in November—its lowest point since April and far below the 100–120 range that once signaled stability. Consumer sentiment dropped to near 60. And inflation-adjusted retail sales are flat since 2021.

When record crowds collide with falling confidence, it doesn’t signal prosperity. It signals pressure. Americans aren’t shopping because they feel good. They’re shopping because everything costs more. And the cause of that isn’t mysterious.

It’s federal overspending, inflation, tariffs, and bad policy—not consumer behavior.

Prices Didn’t Rise on Their Own—Policy Made Them Rise

Talk to shoppers and read the reporting, and the pattern is crystal clear.

Reuters highlights shoppers cutting budgets dramatically—one New Yorker dropping her holiday spending from $500 → $300, and a family in Idaho shrinking their budget from $2,000 → $750 due to rising healthcare premiums and higher everyday prices.

Retailers have pulled back on deals because their own costs—driven by tariffs and inflation—keep climbing.
Small appliances that once cost $5 after rebates now cost two to four times more, with fewer promotions and no rebates.

MarketWatch reports that Americans feel pressured to “get the best deals” because their dollars no longer stretch the way they used to. Even off-price retailers are seeing surging demand—not because consumers are thriving, but because they’re searching for value in a high-price world.

Then The Economist drives it home:

Americans are “miserable but still spending.”

That’s not irrational. It’s survival.

Americans Aren’t the Problem—Washington Is

Families don’t always budget perfectly. That’s life. But at least they spend their own money and face their own consequences.

Washington does neither.

The federal government has spent with abandon, avoided accountability by borrowing trillions, and fueled the affordability crisis hurting every household today.

Here are the facts from the ATR Sustainable Budget Project:

• Federal spending is up more than 50% in a decade.
• From 2020–2024, spending grew 10.9% per year—nearly triple the sustainable rate of 3.6%.
• Had Congress followed a responsible population-plus-inflation limit, Washington would have spent $2.2 trillion less this year.
• The U.S. would have $1.8 trillion less debt, instead of adding $14.3 trillion in a decade.

This isn’t complicated. It’s arithmetic. Inflation didn’t happen because of “greed.” Prices didn’t jump because Americans suddenly forgot how to shop.

The affordability crisis is the direct result of overspending and policy mistakes—tariffs that raised consumer prices, regulations that slowed investment, and deficits that stoked inflation.

Families are trying to manage the fallout. Washington is pretending it didn’t cause it.

Bad Policy Creates Bad Incentives

For years, federal policy encouraged households to overspend too:

• Inflation punished saving
• Easy money rewarded borrowing
• “Stimulus” checks trained people to spend rather than invest
• Tariffs raised the price of essentials
• Regulatory uncertainty weakened hiring and wage growth

Households are reacting rationally to bad incentives created by Washington—not some mythical “irrational consumer.” People feel they must “buy now before prices rise further” because, for years, they did rise further.
That isn’t a consumer problem. It’s a policy problem.

Savings and Stability: The Real Engines of Prosperity

Healthy economies depend on savings—the fuel behind entrepreneurship, investment, and long-term growth. But savings erode under inflation. And record federal deficits crowd out private investment.

Yes, households still have more cash than in 2019, but Bank of America finds they’re reluctant to draw it down—because uncertainty is replacing confidence. That uncertainty originates in Washington, not at kitchen tables.

The Fix Is Simple: Spend Less, Grow More, Restore Confidence

America doesn’t need new taxes, new bureaucracies, or performative “populism.” We need one rule: Limit federal spending growth to less than population growth plus inflation.

That’s the Sustainable Budget model—simple, proven, pro-growth, and aligned with the real-world constraints families face every day.

This rule:

• restrains overspending
• cools inflation
• stabilizes debt
• strengthens savings
• boosts investment
• rebuilds consumer confidence

States like Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Texas, and Tennessee already use versions of this framework. Washington can too—if it’s willing to choose discipline over denial.

My Take: Americans Are Doing Their Part. Washington Must Do Its Job.

Black Friday crowds aren’t a sign of a thriving economy. They’re a sign of Americans navigating abnormal economic conditions with grit and creativity—while Washington keeps making things harder.

Families are stretching dollars. Searching for value. Adjusting to higher prices. Washington is doing none of that.
It’s time for the federal government to relearn the lesson every family already knows: You cannot spend money you do not have without consequences.

The path forward is clear:

• Spend less
• Borrow less
• Inflate less
• Save more
• Grow more
• Trust free people, not central planners

That’s how we restore affordability, rebuild confidence, and let people prosper.