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Social Security's Future And Presidential Impacts

10/28/2024

 
​This week’s episode dives into key election-related issues that could significantly impact Social Security and the broader economy. With projections indicating that the Social Security Trust Fund could be depleted in six years under another Trump presidency, while a Harris presidency may maintain the status quo, voters must consider the fiscal implications of their candidates' policies. Topics covered include the impact of tax exemptions, tariff policies, and entitlement expansion, all of which threaten the solvency of the nation’s mandatory programs. 

Watch the episode on YouTube below, listen to it on Apple Podcast or Spotify, and visit my website for more information.

Interview on KTRH News: Housing Market Still A Hard Avenue For First-Timers

10/28/2024

 
Listen to my interview here.

​Write-up on my interview here:

​Young people are still trying to achieve the American dream of purchasing their first home but it's become increasingly more difficult in recent years.

It's not as easy today to buy a home. Many people are living in apartments or townhomes instead of houses and some may also have a roommate or two to save money in an era of higher costs for housing.

Texas-based Economist Vance Ginn calls it more of an American dream instead of the American dream because it's a different dream for everyone and young people are having to scale back their dreams of ending up in a bigger home.

"Folks who are just starting in their careers and trying to find a house have had to downsize those aspirations on how big of a house they can get," he said.

The high housing costs are a result of multiple things happening at the federal level but also at local levels too. Ginn said excessive government spending and the Federal Reserve printing too much money have been a recipe for this disaster.

"There's a lot of local zoning regulations and other things that are hindering the supply of new homes being built," said Ginn. "This has contributed to housing unaffordability across the country."

Former President Donald Trump has also said that government overspending as well as the mass amounts of illegal aliens coming into the country over the last four years have caused the demand for housing and prices to skyrocket. Ginn said that approach of deporting illegal aliens can help the situation but it doesn't fully address the supply issue.

Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed building around three million new homes over the next few years and providing up to $25,000 in down-payment assistance to first-time buyers. Ginn said that would only increase the already high demand and the price of housing even more and the main focus should instead be on reducing inflation and federal spending.

"Cutting government spending and reducing the debt will contribute to less inflation so that people can afford things like housing and food," Ginn said.

Empowering Strong Families: More Government Isn’t the Answer

10/25/2024

 
Picture
Originally published at Econlib.

​At the recent vice-presidential debate between Senator J.D. Vance and Governor Tim Walz, both leaders emphasized that families are America’s backbone. However, they erred in their approach by suggesting that more government involvement could solve families’ challenges. From expanding the child tax credit to advocating for new social programs, their solutions imply that the government can strengthen families. This is a dangerous misconception. 

Instead of empowering families, government programs often create dependency and stifle personal responsibility.

Families thrive when they can shape their futures, not when bureaucratic systems constrain them. Each time the government steps in with a new program or benefit, it diminishes that freedom, replacing it with control. 

What begins as well-intentioned assistance often leads to dependence on the state. For example, the expansion of the child tax credit may appear to help families in the short term, but beneath the surface, it’s just another form of wealth redistribution. The government takes from some families to give to others, often with strings attached, reducing overall freedom and fostering a culture of dependency.

As Milton Friedman often argued, there is no such thing as a free lunch. Every dollar spent on social programs must come from somewhere—from today’s taxpayers or, worse, future generations who will inherit the debt. 

When politicians advocate for more government borrowing, they are not helping families; they are placing a financial burden on the very children they claim to support. These government interventions discourage self-reliance and erode the virtues that strengthen families, such as responsibility and initiative.

The real solution to helping families is not more government intervention—it’s less. 

Cutting government spending and reducing taxes allows families to keep more of their hard-earned money. When families control more of their income, they can make decisions that fit their unique needs, whether saving for a home, investing in their children’s education, or starting a small business. 

Families are far better equipped to allocate resources than Washington bureaucrats.

Moreover, reducing the size of government programs fosters independence. Work requirements, for instance, are essential to reducing welfare dependency. When individuals are encouraged to contribute to society through meaningful work, they regain a sense of dignity and self-worth—key elements for the stability and strength of the family unit. 

Government handouts that lack work incentives trap individuals in cycles of poverty and dependency. Over time, these individuals lose the motivation to improve their circumstances, weakening the family structure.

A critical area where this is evident is in criminal justice reform. 

Too many fathers, particularly in minority communities, are imprisoned for non-violent offenses, leaving families without a primary breadwinner and creating emotional and financial strain. This is another case where excessive government intervention—in the form of overcriminalization—has done more harm than good. 

Reforming the system to focus on rehabilitation and second chances would do far more to help struggling families than government welfare checks. Strong families depend on having responsible, present role models. Keeping families intact is essential to breaking the cycles of poverty that afflict so many communities.

Rising living costs are another major issue for families, but government intervention often exacerbates this problem. 

In housing, healthcare, and education, regulations and taxes inflate costs, making it harder for families to get by. For instance, restrictive zoning laws and excessive property taxes increase housing costs. Rather than creating new government programs to subsidize housing, a better approach would be eliminating these regulations and reducing the tax burden, allowing the free market to provide more affordable solutions. 

The free market has a proven track record of reducing prices and increasing access, while government involvement often does the opposite.

The government should protect individual rights and ensure a fair playing field, not interfere by redistributing wealth or attempting to manage the economy. Personal responsibility and economic freedom are key to prosperity. Families need the freedom to choose how to work, spend, and live their lives. 

More government programs won’t strengthen families—freedom will.

Politicians like Vance and Walz, though well-meaning, miss the broader point. Families don’t need more government programs; they need more freedom. This includes the freedom to work, to spend their money as they see fit, and to live without excessive regulation. By reducing the size of government, cutting taxes, and eliminating burdensome regulations, we give families the tools they need to succeed on their terms.
​

The key to strengthening families is not expanding government but reducing its role. Families thrive when they have the freedom to make their own choices without the heavy hand of government dictating their lives. The best way to help families is to let them keep more of what they earn, remove the bureaucratic red tape that stifles opportunity, and foster a culture of personal responsibility. The freer families are to pursue their goals, the more prosperous society will become—not just for them but for the entire country.

Texas vs. California: Which Model Works Better?

10/24/2024

 
Picture
Originally published at Texans for Fiscal Responsibility.

​​In the latest economic showdown between Texas and California—the two largest U.S. states by population and economic output—the results are clear: Texas is outpacing California in job creation and overall economic performance. 

Over the year leading up to September 2024, Texas added 327,400 jobs, an impressive 2.3% growth rate, while maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.1%. In contrast, California gained 265,300 jobs, or 1.5%, and continues to grapple with a rising unemployment rate of 5.3%.

These figures highlight the profound impact of the two states’ contrasting economic models. 

With its more free-market policies—marked by lower taxes, minimal regulations, and a commitment to personal responsibility—Texas has fostered an environment ripe for growth. Meanwhile, California’s more interventionist, big-government approach, characterized by higher spending, taxes, and regulation, is struggling to keep up.

Texas’s Free-Market Approach: A Proven Model for Prosperity
Texas’s economic success is no accident. The state has long embraced a model of limited government intervention and a business-friendly regulatory environment. This combination has made Texas a magnet for businesses and workers seeking economic opportunity and a lower cost of living.

A key driver of Texas’s success is its lack of a personal income tax, which provides an immediate financial advantage for individuals and businesses. This tax-friendly environment has attracted major corporations, including Tesla, Oracle, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise, who have moved their headquarters to Texas in recent years. 

These relocations have boosted job creation and solidified Texas’s reputation as a national leader in economic opportunity.

Texas’s economic growth is also bolstered by its diverse industry base. The state is home to many sectors, from energy and manufacturing to technology and health care, which has helped insulate it from economic downturns. 

Even as national challenges like inflation and supply chain disruptions persist, Texas’s economy has grown, driven by its robust job market and pro-growth policies.

California’s Struggles: Big Government Holding Back Growth
While California remains the largest state economy in the country, its economic growth is being held back by its big-government approach. The state’s high taxes and overregulation have created significant barriers to business growth and job creation, contributing to slower employment gains and a higher unemployment rate than Texas.

One of California’s most significant challenges is its sky-high cost of living, particularly in housing. Regulatory hurdles, including restrictive zoning laws and environmental regulations, have limited the supply of affordable housing, driving up costs and forcing many residents to seek opportunities in states like Texas. This outmigration has become a growing problem for California, weakening its workforce and tax base.

Furthermore, California’s heavy reliance on government spending and expansive social programs has created long-term fiscal vulnerabilities. The state’s large budget deficits often necessitate spending cuts in public services, and its high tax rates continue to burden residents and businesses. In contrast, Texas’s greater fiscal discipline and commitment to balanced budgets have enabled the state to grow without relying on excessive government intervention or spending.

The Future for Texas: Opportunities for Continued Growth
While Texas outperforms California in job creation and economic growth, the state still has room to improve.

One key area where Texas could enhance its long-term success is by addressing government spending at the state and local levels. Despite its reputation for fiscal conservatism, Texas has seen increases in government spending in recent years, which pose challenges to its pro-growth model.

To maintain its competitive edge, Texas should continue pursuing policies that reduce the government burden on individuals and businesses. One such policy would be eliminating school district maintenance and operations (M&O) property taxes, providing substantial tax relief to homeowners and further supporting faster economic growth. 

By spending less and using budget surpluses to phase out these taxes over time, Texas could solidify its position as a low-tax state and continue to attract businesses and residents seeking economic freedom.

Additionally, Texas should focus on maintaining its business-friendly regulatory environment. As states compete for talent and investment, keeping regulations minimal and predictable will ensure that Texas remains a top destination for companies and workers.

Conclusion: Texas Shows the Power of Free Markets
The latest employment data clarifies that Texas’s free-market approach is driving stronger economic growth and job creation than California’s more interventionist model. 

With 327,400 new jobs added over the past year and a 4.1% unemployment rate, Texas stands as a testament to the power of low taxes, limited regulation, and fiscal responsibility. In contrast, California’s slower job growth, higher unemployment, and economic struggles reflect the limitations of big-government policies.

As Texans thrive, the state offers a blueprint for other states seeking to boost economic performance and job creation. By prioritizing free markets and personal responsibility over government intervention, Texas proves that economic prosperity comes from empowering individuals and businesses to innovate, invest, and grow. But there’s more to do!

Louisiana’s Labor Market Improves but More Work to Do

10/24/2024

 
Picture
Originally published at Pelican Institute.

​With its rich cultural heritage and strategic location along the Gulf of Mexico, Louisiana boasts significant economic potential. However, recent data underscores the need for the state to tap into this potential and enhance its economic growth, especially in comparison to its neighboring states.

As of September 2024, Louisiana’s unemployment rate is 3.9%, a slight increase from the previous year but below the national average of 4.1%. Over the past twelve months, Louisiana added 2,000 jobs, a 0.1% increase in nonfarm employment. This growth is positive but well below the 1.3% national rate and significantly lower than regional competitors like Texas (2.3%) and Florida (2.1%), where job growth has been much stronger.

It’s imperative for Louisiana to keep pace with its neighboring states. By urgently implementing bold pro-growth policies, such as lowering taxes, reducing regulations, and improving workforce development, the state can create an environment that attracts businesses, generates jobs, and enhances overall economic prosperity.

Comparing Louisiana with Neighboring States
The contrast between Louisiana and its neighboring states is stark. Texas continues to lead the pack, with 327,400 new jobs added over the past year. Meanwhile, Florida has also experienced strong economic growth, with its unemployment rate declining to 2.8%, among the lowest in the region. While still facing economic challenges, Mississippi has recently seen a boost in job creation through pro-business reforms, resulting in an unemployment rate of 3.3%.

Louisiana’s relatively slower job growth and higher unemployment rate prove the urgent need for reform. The state’s heavy reliance on the oil and gas sector, while a source of strength in the past, has created economic volatility. Diversification into industries such as manufacturing, technology, and tourism, coupled with meaningful policy reforms, is not just important but crucial for Louisiana to remain competitive in the region.

Pro-Growth Policy Recommendations for Louisiana
To unlock its economic potential, Louisiana should consider implementing several key reforms that have proven successful in other states:
  1. Tax Reform: One of the most pressing challenges for Louisiana is its high tax burden. The state’s complex tax system and reliance on income taxes discourage business investment and slow job creation. Louisiana can follow the example of Texas, which has no state income tax and a relatively low corporate tax rate, making it one of the most attractive states for business. Louisiana should reduce its income taxes, simplify its tax code, and shift to a more consumption-based system that encourages investment and entrepreneurship.
  2. Regulatory Relief: Excessive regulations have hampered Louisiana’s ability to attract new businesses and allow existing ones to expand. Streamlining regulations and reducing red tape can help foster a more business-friendly environment. Texas and Florida have prioritized regulatory reform, contributing to their impressive economic growth. Louisiana could benefit from a comprehensive review of its regulatory framework, particularly in sectors like energy, manufacturing, and small businesses.
  3. Workforce Development: Many companies report that a shortage of qualified workers hinders growth and there should be better integration of workforce and social services for those in poverty. To address this, Louisiana should pursue the highly successful “One Door” approach used by Utah to integrate workforce and social services programing. The state should also continue prioritizing workforce training and education programs that align with the needs of regional industries and offer upwardly mobile careers.
  4.    Spending Restraint: Louisiana’s government spending has grown rapidly over the years, leading to an over-reliance on government programs and interventions. Implementing spending caps tied to population growth and inflation, as Colorado and Texas have done and other states are considering, would help ensure that Louisiana’s budget remains responsible.
By controlling spending and reducing the size of government, Louisiana can create a more predictable business environment, which is crucial for attracting long-term investment.

Moving Louisiana Forward
Louisiana’s economy has shown signs of recovery, but much more work must be done. By embracing pro-growth policies focused on reducing taxes, streamlining regulations, and integrating workforce and social services while prioritizing high-demand, high-value career opportunities, Louisiana can revitalize its economy and compete more effectively with its neighbors. The state’s natural resources, cultural vibrancy, and strategic location give it a strong foundation to build, but success will require bold leadership and a commitment to reform.
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    Vance Ginn, Ph.D.
    ​@LetPeopleProsper

    Vance Ginn, Ph.D., is President of Ginn Economic Consulting and collaborates with more than 20 free-market think tanks to let people prosper. Follow him on X: @vanceginn and subscribe to his newsletter: vanceginn.substack.com

    View my profile on LinkedIn

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