Here's my interview on KEYE TV regarding the most recent steep drop in oil prices and its potential effect on the stock market and Texas economy. 

By the end of trading on Friday, the New York Stock Exchange was down 391 points for the day, 1,437 points from two weeks ago. The reason: the plummeting price of crude oil and a faltering Chinese economy.

"There are some major headwinds moving forward," said Dr. Vance Ginn, economist for the Texas Public Policy Foundation. "We're almost in correction territory and when you look at the oil prices are down more than 20 percent since the beginning of the year which is what we call a bear market."

The price of crude oil has been a concern in Texas for months, as oil and gas companies lay off people. But for now, Dr. Ginn says don't panic about your 401k. "We're seeing substantial volatility, so this may not be the time to pull everything out," he said, adding it might be a good idea to wait and watch. Dr. Ginn says you should check with your financial advisor if you're nervous.

The bright spot right now is those low, low gas prices. At the Buccee's in Bastrop, KEYE TV caught up with drivers filling up. "At the high prices, it was 50 bucks. And now it's about 20, 30," said one man who was filling up his SUV.

Latrice Newton stopped on her way from San Antonio. "This is a wonderful thing for my budget. I live in San Antonio and I'm seeing $1.60 so to stop and see it at $1.44, it's great," she said.

But while gas prices might be freeing up some of your budget, Dr. Ginn says you might want to be putting that savings away. "It's important for Texans to be able to save for a rainy day just in case something does happen in the future," he said.

​http://keyetv.com/news/local/crude-oil-price-drop-hits-stock-market-hard

Don't miss this video of a panel I moderated recently on advancing the Texas model with a simple tax system. 

The Texas model of low taxes, no individual income tax, moderate regulation, and a good lawsuit climate has generated prosperity for many Texans. Despite these gains, is the state’s tax system with an onerous business franchise tax and burdensome local property taxes the most efficient? Join us as the panel discusses potential improvements to the state’s tax structure so that the budget meets the needs of Texans while providing an environment conducive to the greatest economic opportunity for them to succeed.

Featuring
Sen. Paul Bettencourt, Chairman, Select Committee on Property Tax Reform and Relief, Texas State Senate | Presentation
Scott Drenkard, Economist and Director of State Projects, Tax Foundation |Presentation 
Sen. Craig Estes, Texas State Senate
Rep. Chris Turner, Texas House of Representatives

Moderated by Dr. Vance Ginn, Economist, Center for Fiscal Policy, Texas Public Policy Foundation
​

http://www.texaspolicy.com/multimedia/video/advancing-the-texas-model-will-a-simple-tax-system-drive-prosperity-po2016

Don't miss this video where I present the Foundation's Medicaid reforms that saves taxpayer dollars and provides better access to quality care and outcomes for recipients.

A supplemental spending bill passed by the 84th Legislature caused total state spending on health and human services (Article II) to exceed education spending (Article III) for the first time in Texas history. As the state’s Medicaid rolls continue to grow (even without the ACA Medicaid expansion), hospitals face looming federal funding cuts, and the state grapples with unprecedented healthcare costs, how can we stabilize the growth of state healthcare spending while improving access to and quality of care?

Featuring

Rep. Garnet Coleman, Texas House of Representatives
Dr. Vance Ginn, Economist, Center for Fiscal Policy, Texas Public Policy Foundation | Presentation
Camille Miller, President & CEO, Texas Health Institute | Presentation 

Moderated by John Davidson, Director, Center for Health Care Policy, Texas Public Policy Foundation
​http://www.texaspolicy.com/multimedia/video/uncompensated-care-medicaid-and-solutions-to-texas-health-care-crisis-po2016

Here's my interview on KEYE TV with video here: http://keyetv.com/news/local/falling-oil-prices-could-spell-trouble-for-austin.

For the last year and a half, drivers across the nation have enjoyed paying less and less for a gallon of gasoline. "Lower gasoline prices help us to have more money to go buy food or put food on the table," said Dr. Vance Ginn, economist at the Texas Public Policy Foundation.

But Dr. Ginn notes, here in Texas, that good news is countered by bad news. "If it continues to stay low, there is going to be some larger effects moving forward," he said. "Oil and gas is the lifeblood of the Texas economy, and really, the nation."

Eighteen months after oil prices began to slump due to a global oversupply and a strong dollar, Dr. Ginn is using the R-word on Texas cities that depend more on the oil and gas industry. "In Houston or Midland-Odessa, they're really going to struggle. And we could see more regional types of recessions," he said.

Texas has diversified its industries since the oil bust of the 1980s -- more tech in Austin, financial services in Dallas-Fort Worth. And if you just look at job growth numbers, all seems well. "Over the last year, Austin job growth has increased by 4.1 percent. That's pretty fast," Dr. Ginn said. But Austin, even though it's heavy on tech, can't hold out on oil and gas trouble forever. "There is less consumption," said Dr. Ginn. "There's a slowdown in hiring, things of that nature that also has an effect on Austin itself." Already, the state is seeing a dip in revenues coming from the oil and gas industry.

So while Austinites enjoy the low gas prices, remember, if it seems too good to be true, it probably is.

"Fourteen percent of the private economy being dependent on oil and gas activity across the state of Texas, you are going to see that spread across the state including in Austin," Dr. Ginn said.